YazataJul 22, 2022 07:25 PM (This post was last modified: Jul 22, 2022 07:39 PM by Yazata.)
Friday's events include news that both Russia and Ukraine have signed what's being called the "Istanbul Accord", brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.
This is not an end to the war. It just enables Ukrainian exports of grain by sea. Russia agrees to allow merchant shipping in and out of remaining Ukrainian ports (Odessa is the only one functioning) without hindering, boarding or searching them. If Russia feels that a search is required, it will be conducted by Turkey in Turkish waters.
The price for getting Russia to sign was agreement to allow Russian grain exports from the Black Sea as well. So sanctions against Russia will get an exception for grain exports.
Both countries are major grain exporters and many countries that import their grain will be happy about this.
YazataJul 24, 2022 06:33 AM (This post was last modified: Jul 24, 2022 06:57 AM by Yazata.)
Saturday July 23 is Day 150 of the Ukraine War. (When Russia attacked on February 24, who among us thought that the war would still be going strong at day 150?)
The Russians are conducting small-unit probing attacks north and east of Kharkiv, trying to gain position and find soft-spots. But nothing that really threatens Ukraine's second largest city.
The Russian attempts to advance from Izium southeast towards Slovyansk continue, but Ukrainian resistance has prevented them from advancing for weeks. That continues.
Russians are trying hard to advance westwards from Lysychansk. The Ukrainians have set up a defensive line at Siversk, south through Soladar to Bakhmut. The Ukrainians are holding in most places, but they are under a lot of pressure from Russian artillery that's pounding them mercilessly. The largest Russian advances are east of Bakhmut. Southeast of Bakhmut they have surrounded on three sides a non-nuclear power plant where the Ukrainians are resisting doggedly. There's some fear that the Russians will surround them and cut them off.
And not a whole lot has changed elsewhere along the front. Many small attacks, but mostly small units from both sides probing the other side. Likely both sides have all of their available forces committed to the Donbas battle.
One possible exception is persistent rumors that the Ukrainians are gathering forces for an attempt to retake Kherson. The Ukrainian military headquarters has imposed a news blackout in that area for fear of giving away operational details, which naturally has led to speculation. But nothing dramatic has happened as yet. Lots of artillery fire is going back and forth.
And just a day after signing the Istanbul grain-export accords. the Russians sent several missiles into the port of Odessa in apparent hopes of disabling it.
Here's some US data about the Donbas battle area from a satellite designed to detect fires. (The data it provides is used in places like California to fight brush and forest fires.) War has a way of starting fires, so... Fires some distance from the line of contact are probably the result of artillery, missile or aircraft strikes.
Quote:"The enemy attacked the Odesa sea trade port with Kalibr cruise missiles," said Ukraine's military, adding two were shot down while another two hit "the infrastructure of the port".
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says his forces are advancing "step by step" into the occupied southern region of Kherson.
Quote:Kherson city fell to Russia early in the war and sits on a strategic location west of the Dnipro river.
On Saturday, UK defence officials reported heavy fighting near Kherson.
The Ukrainian advance meant that Russian supply lines west of the river were "increasingly at risk", according to their assessment.
Earlier this month, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minster Iryna Vereshchuk urged Kherson residents to evacuate the city as soon as possible to avoid becoming trapped in the city during a counteroffensive in southern Ukraine.
"It is necessary to do so for the Armed Forces of Ukraine not to endanger the civilian population during offensive operations," she told state TV.
Serhiy Khlan, an adviser to Kherson's government, told Ukrainian television the region would "definitely be liberated by September", AFP report.
Kyiv's forces have been targeting river crossings in the region in an effort to stretch Russia's supply lines. On Saturday, an artillery strike hit the Daryivskyi bridge across the Inhulets river, a tributary of the Dnipro.
And on Tuesday, they targeted the Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnipro itself with US-supplied artillery.
Speaking to the state backed Tass news agency, the deputy head of the Russian-backed administration in Kherson admitted that if the strikes continued the bridge could collapse.
UK officials have described the Antonivskyi Bridge as a "key vulnerability" for Russian forces and on Saturday said if "crossings were denied, and Russian forces in occupied Kherson cut off, it would be a significant military and political setback for Russia".
Mr Khlan said "every bridge is a weak point for logistics and our armed forces are skilfully destroying the enemy system".
Meanwhile, a senior defence adviser to Mr Zelensky claimed that around 1,000 Russian troops in the region have been encircled by Ukrainian forces.
Oleksiy Arestovych said the Russians had been caught in a "tactical encirclement" near the village of Vysokopillya in Kherson oblast. The BBC has not independently verified this claim.
Tass reported that plans in Kherson to hold a referendum on joining Russia have moved forward, with authorities there forming an election committee. The US has accused Russia of preparing to annex parts of Ukraine.
Russia captured Kherson with relatively little resistance early in the war, and the failure of Ukraine's security service (SBU) to destroy crossing points over the Dnipro before fleeing the city is believed to have led to Mr Zelensky's dismissal of the agency's director Ivan Bakanov on Monday.
this suggests i was right about the russian propaganda media people claiming the Orcs were going to move forward in the south, as an out right lie.
they have simply advertised their weakness
hopefully Ukraine can smash those bridges soon when its safe to shoot n scoot
generally i would admit that it seems counter intuitive to destroy bridges that your advancing toward
but i think this will reinforce their front line & give them a tactical advantage of range.
after the grain armistice deal russia has attacked the port of odessa on the following day of agreeing not to attack it.
obviously the Orcs cant be trusted
what i wonder is if russia is hoping Ukraine will leave some of its HIMARS(or neptune) somewhere that russia can strike if they pretend to a cease fire to un block the port.
hopefully Ukraine has some neptune missiles on stand by but not anywhere the Orcs can find them
russia probably has 2 submarines sitting off the coast waiting for targets to hit in Odessa
YazataJul 26, 2022 05:30 AM (This post was last modified: Jul 26, 2022 06:16 AM by Yazata.)
Here's something useful. It's maps prepared by Ukraine War Mapper on Soar, an online mapping site. The information largely comes from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry briefings which appear pretty accurate, plus many reports from the ground. All superimposed on satellite imagery. (The one exception is the Kherson area, where the Ministry has asked that sites like this only report information from the official briefings and not from unofficial sources, to protect operational security regarding troop movements and locations.)
It's updated regularly and the information on it is only hours old.
You can choose a location of interest, then zoom in for detailed views down to street level. The color code (added by Ukraine War Mapper) is pretty self-explanatory. Yellow is Ukrainian held. Red is Russian held. Purple is areas of Ukraine held by Russia or the separatists since 2015. Yellow circles with red borders are towns/villages/settlements where both sides are present and where fighting is currently happening. To make the satellite imagery show through the battle status map, slide the 'transparency' thing on the left.
YazataJul 26, 2022 06:58 PM (This post was last modified: Jul 26, 2022 07:04 PM by Yazata.)
The Ukrainians have withdrawn from the Vuhlehirsk electric power plant southeast of Bakhmut, which they had been doggedly defending. I don't believe that they were forced out so much as they were in danger of being encircled, so they left while leaving was still possible.
Photographs have started to appear on Russian websites, some associated with the Wagner Group. So it seems that these mercenaries were involved somehow.
(Jul 26, 2022 06:58 PM)Yazata Wrote: the Wagner Group
should be listed as a terrorist organization with full sanctions to all associated people & company's and black listed for all financial processes
im having a play around with the map currently.
note : Orc propaganda
i notice all the videos coming out of the Orcs 'being posted to public'
shows some very revealing stuff
all their helicopters & planes are firing blind then turning around
& none of their video has detail to have any identifiable content
& im fairly sure they are using some same images to pretend to be different targets being hit.
it occurred to me that the Orcs probably want to keep up a steady stream of propaganda war footage to show potential new recruits so it doesn't look dangerous so they can trick more fresh meat(russias future being flushed down the toilet) into signing contracts.
i think i see a theme inside their war footage propaganda to make it all look like they are on holiday with expensive machinery and firing live rounds.
Jul 22, 2022 07:25 PM
(This post was last modified: Jul 22, 2022 07:39 PM by Yazata.)
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