Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[confused2]

Translation: Iran can shoot at Israel and the Gulf Arabs, but Israel can't shoot at Hezbollah. I think that we all know what Bibi Netahyahu thinks about that.

You can spin it that(?) way or you could spin it that Iran continues shooting ->because<- Israel is shooting at Hezbollah which (clearly) they had every intention of doing regardless of any ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US. In reality Israel would like Trump to obliterate Iran and the Iranian leaders don't seem that bothered either way so (strangely) the one with the problem is Trump

[Syne]

Terrorists and Islamists are liars, the latter decreed by their scripture. If they were negotiating in good faith, they would have mentioned Hezbollah as a stipulation. They did not. They intended to use it as an excuse to disregard the agreement.

Israel was not even a party to the negotiations, so the US could not make any promises on their behalf. Accusing Israel of breaking a ceasefire it wasn't a party to is intellectually dishonest, at best.

---

According to reports, Israel's historic strike on Hezbollah, which today - in a total of 10 minutes - reduced 100 Hezbollah operational centers across all of Lebanon to rubble and blood, can be considered the result of one of the finest intelligence operations in the world, surpassing even the killings of Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar in its brilliance.

The story goes like this: Hezbollah, having lost the full logistical support of the Islamic Republic, intended to launch a swift and powerful coup to topple the government of Joseph Aoun, seize complete control of Lebanon, and, after fully consolidating power, enter direct negotiations with the United States itself through a delegation consisting of Naim Qassem and Nabi Berri—thereby attempting to work around Israel altogether.

Israel, however, with complete intelligence dominance, caught wind of the plot and - just a few hours before the coup, without any prior warning - leveled 100 Hezbollah centers across Lebanon within mere minutes.

Some witnesses to the bombings, especially in the Zahle area, are calling it the most awe and fear inducing display of military might in the region's history.

Bibi holds a press conference tonight to update...

If verified, I give thanks to Israel for this remarkable operation to help liberate and secure Lebanon, as well as protecting and securing its own northern border - which also explains a tiny bit more about why a "ceasefire" with Iran might be a temporary strategy, not a ceding of total regime change.

(paraphrased from Reza Sad on X)
- https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=266...4992260767

[Yazata]

Interesting opinion piece about who is actually running Iran,

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/jeff-charl...d-n2674100

The country appears to be moving from an Islamic Republic toward a centralized military regime as the IRGC seizes more power in the weeks as the nation sustains serious damage from the bombing campaigns.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not made a public appearance since being appointed to his position. Iranian media reported he was wounded in the same strike that killed his father. But it is believed that if he recovers, he won’t have the same level of power as his predecessor. “Mojtaba owes his position to the Revolutionary Guards and as such he is not going to be as supreme as his father was,” Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Reuters.

...The 31 IRGC provincial commands that control the missiles, the drones, and the airspace do not answer to him.

The de facto leadership includes a three-member wartime council of IRGC-linked figures. This includes former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, current IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

IRGC military council has... sidelined President Pezeshkian from key decisions ...

[Syne]

I figured the Iran president had little to no actual influence or power. Probably even before Epic Fury. Just a glorified spokesman.

Masoud Pezeshkian, who took office in July 2024, is considered a moderate in Iran's political system, but he holds very little "actual" power. Real authority rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while the president is constrained by hardline-dominated state institutions, including the parliament and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which dictate policy.
- Google AI

[confused2]

If they [Iran] were negotiating in good faith,..

The art of the deal is persuading people that they want what you want them to want. Or killing them. It's a messy business on both sides.