Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

Hezbollah is claiming, and the Lebanese media is repeating, and Israeli media picked up from them, that a warship in the Mediterranean off the Lebanese coast was struck by an Iranian made cruise missile fired by Hezbollah and is damaged. The claims were that the ship was British. But British defense sources say that the only British warship in the general area is HMS Dragon, a Type 45 destroyer, and that Dragon has not been attacked or damaged. There's speculation that if a ship was actually struck (unclear at this point) that it might have been Israeli. Israeli naval craft are known to have been working in that area.

Apparently the US believes that it has more or less achieved its objectives for the war (1. halting Iran's nuclear program, and 2. crippling its ballistic missile development/manufacturing program). So through Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt as intermediaries, the US offered Iran a cease-fire in exchange for allowing shipping through Hormuz. And according to Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt, Iran flatly refused.

So the President didn't hold back and posted this:

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Israeli media is reporting that Israel is working with the US to draw up a target list of infrastructure (electricity grid, transport and perhaps oil industry) targets. Israel has always taken a hard line on the war (go for a knockout blow) while the US wanted to avoid attacking things that would crash the Iranian economy and make the Iranian people suffer. Throughout the first five weeks of the war, lights have remained on in Iran. They might be about to go out on Tuesday and roads and bridges might be cut as well. That could conceivably cut off water (which sometimes depends on electric pumps) and halt food from reaching markets.

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An apartment building in Israel's port city of Haifa was hit by an Iranian missile this morning.

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[confused2]

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" said by George Santayana in 1905, Could it still be relevant? While waiting for what happens next - are there any obvious parallels to the present Iran/Israel/US war? Romans and Christians springs to mind - if the US and Israel were the Muslims - what would we expect a Christian Iran to do?

[Syne]

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ...if the US and Israel were the Muslims - what would we expect a Christian Iran to do?

They wouldn't have been running the largest global terror network in the first place.
You can't honestly invert the parties without also inverting their histories.

[Yazata]

Trump (on Easter!): "Praise be to Allah"

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[confused2]

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ...if the US and Israel were the Muslims - what would we expect a Christian Iran to do?

They wouldn't have been running the largest global terror network in the first place.
You can't honestly invert the parties without also inverting their histories.

Of course you can only view things from the POV of the culture you grew up in - they (Iranians) are just like you! They have people fighting against evil and you call them terrorists - and vice versa.

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Trump (on Easter!): "Praise be to Allah"

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I just hope that in the coming weeks, months or perhaps years - I'll be able to forget I've seen that.

[Syne]

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ...if the US and Israel were the Muslims - what would we expect a Christian Iran to do?

They wouldn't have been running the largest global terror network in the first place.
You can't honestly invert the parties without also inverting their histories.

Of course you can only view things from the POV of the culture you grew up in - they (Iranians) are just like you! They have people fighting against evil and you call them terrorists - and vice versa.

No, most Iranians agree that the theocratic Muslim regime is evil and perpetrating terrorism, domestically and abroad.
Such moral relativism seems to be a large hurdle for some learning the lessons of history.

[confused2]

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ...if the US and Israel were the Muslims - what would we expect a Christian Iran to do?

They wouldn't have been running the largest global terror network in the first place.
You can't honestly invert the parties without also inverting their histories.

Of course you can only view things from the POV of the culture you grew up in - they (Iranians) are just like you! They have people fighting against evil and you call them terrorists - and vice versa.

No, most Iranians agree that the theocratic Muslim regime is evil and perpetrating terrorism, domestically and abroad.
Such moral relativism seems to be a large hurdle for some learning the lessons of history.

Iran is a culturally diverse country - the answer you get will depend on who you ask. Back in the 1950s Iran was a democracy - Britain and the CIA removed the democracy to install the Shah. The Shah was overthrown by a popular (Muslim) uprising. Given another 20 years Iran might have gone back to being a democracy - possibly to be overthrown by the US yet again. Not yet ready and not soon enough for Trump.

[C C]

[...] Apparently the US believes that it has more or less achieved its objectives for the war... So the President didn't hold back and posted this:

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran," Trump's post read. "There will be nothing like it!!!"

"Open the F----- Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!" read Trump's message to Iran's leaders. "Praise be to Allah."

Israeli media is reporting that Israel is working with the US to draw up a target list of infrastructure (electricity grid, transport and perhaps oil industry) targets. Israel has always taken a hard line on the war (go for a knockout blow) while the US wanted to avoid attacking things that would crash the Iranian economy and make the Iranian people suffer. Throughout the first five weeks of the war, lights have remained on in Iran. They might be about to go out on Tuesday and roads and bridges might be cut as well. That could conceivably cut off water (which sometimes depends on electric pumps) and halt food from reaching markets. [...]

It was always going to be some extreme that Israel wanted at the start, so just get it done already. The show needs to be closed down well before the mid-terms to give the economy a chance to stabilize, and encourage amnesia to incrementally creep in. Do the Republican candidates and incumbents a favor, which includes keeping a hand out of the war and fossil fuel disruption cookie jar for the rest of the year.

Granting that Iran will let the US and Israel quit after this. They may keep lobbing an occasional missile and drone attack at American bases and Israeli cities for months. The new military regime could be crazy or drunk enough on power to not allow the conflict a curtain fall.

[Syne]

No, most Iranians agree that the theocratic Muslim regime is evil and perpetrating terrorism, domestically and abroad.
Such moral relativism seems to be a large hurdle for some learning the lessons of history.

Iran is a culturally diverse country - the answer you get will depend on who you ask. Back in the 1950s Iran was a democracy - Britain and the CIA removed the democracy to install the Shah. The Shah was overthrown by a popular (Muslim) uprising. Given another 20 years Iran might have gone back to being a democracy - possibly to be overthrown by the US yet again. Not yet ready and not soon enough for Trump.

See, you don't even know the history.

The Pahlavi dynasty shahs ruled Iran for a total of 54 years, from 1925 to 1979. Reza Shah ruled from 1925 to 1941, followed by his son, Mohammad Reza Shah, who reigned from 1941 until the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Key Details of Pahlavi Rule (1925–1979)

Reza Shah Pahlavi (1925–1941): Founded the dynasty after a 1921 coup, initiating modernization efforts before forced abdication.
Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi (1941–1979): Ruled for 37 years, overseeing major economic growth, industrialization, and increased foreign influence (especially with the U.S.).
End of Rule: The monarchy was overthrown during the Islamic Revolution in February 1979.
- Google AI

The Iranian 1906 constitution (Iran law in 1953) stated that Prime Ministers, like Mosaddegh, served at the pleasure of the shah. While they had a parliament and tradition held that parliament would approve appointments, Mosaddegh was trying to dissolve the parliament, to ensure he couldn't be replaced.

Whether Mohammad Mosaddegh was a "democrat at heart" or an "aspiring autocrat" is a central debate in Iranian history. While he rose to power as a champion of constitutionalism, his final year in office saw a series of controversial actions that critics—and even some former allies—labeled as authoritarian.
- Google AI

IOW, power was being consolidated, under one or the other.

"In 1949, after an assassination attempt, [the shah] had already gained the constitutional right to dissolve the parliament." - Google AI

So no, the US/UK didn't "install" the shah. He already had power under Iranian law. The US/UK were only trying to keep their huge investment in building the infrastructure for Iran's oil industry (which didn't exist previously) from being nationalized, by Mosaddegh, and effectively stolen.

Yes, the shah consolidated power after 1953, but well within Iranian law at the time. And yes, the overthrow of the shah was popular in 1979, pushed, ironically, by the country's left. But the Islamic Republic did a bait and switch, promising democracy and freedom only to deliver authoritarian theocracy.

Since the Islamic Republic came into power without a constitution, and even the referendum vote happened under the watch of the revolutionary guards and mullahs, the Islamic Republic's new constitution immediately made Khomeini supreme leader for life.


If you think that means Iran could have naturally become a democracy in another 20 years, you've failed to learn the lessons of history.

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[...] Apparently the US believes that it has more or less achieved its objectives for the war... So the President didn't hold back and posted this:

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran," Trump's post read. "There will be nothing like it!!!"

"Open the F----- Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!" read Trump's message to Iran's leaders. "Praise be to Allah."

Israeli media is reporting that Israel is working with the US to draw up a target list of infrastructure (electricity grid, transport and perhaps oil industry) targets. Israel has always taken a hard line on the war (go for a knockout blow) while the US wanted to avoid attacking things that would crash the Iranian economy and make the Iranian people suffer. Throughout the first five weeks of the war, lights have remained on in Iran. They might be about to go out on Tuesday and roads and bridges might be cut as well. That could conceivably cut off water (which sometimes depends on electric pumps) and halt food from reaching markets. [...]

It was always going to be some extreme that Israel wanted at the start, so just get it done already. The show needs to be closed down well before the mid-terms to give the economy a chance to stabilize, and encourage amnesia to incrementally creep in. Do the Republican candidates and incumbents a favor, which includes keeping a hand out of the war and fossil fuel disruption cookie jar for the rest of the year.

Granting that Iran will let the US and Israel quit after this. They may keep lobbing an occasional missile and drone attack at American bases and Israeli cities for months. The new military regime could be crazy or drunk enough on power to not allow the conflict a curtain fall.

You sound more and more like you've been drinking from the horseshoe-right/left antisemitic conspiracy theories.

I agree that it needs to wrap well before the midterms, but I think you give people's memories far too much credit. It could easily go another 2 months, with plenty of time for the economy to kick back up into high gear... especially if my theory about Trump dropping all the tariffs to boost the economy is also correct. If anything, right now, the war is working in Trump's favor for the midterms. If enough of the tariffs couldn't be maintained long enough, the war tamping down the economy does the same job.

The trick is making sure no one has time to think a booming economy is the status quo before the midterms, but enough for Republicans to campaign on it. But even with the war and tariffs, jobs numbers, etc. continue to beat expectations.

And there's only one way to ensure that Iran doesn't continue to be a thorn in the international side, no matter how small. That's to finish the job. An engagement that lasts 2 or 3 months is a small price to pay for more lasting peace and prosperity in the region... which would be historic.


But sure, let's get out prematurely, abandon the Iranian people to retaliation, and go right back to the decades-old status quo within a year or two. 9_9

[confused2]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Mosaddegh
"He [Mohammad Mosaddegh] was elected to the Iranian parliament in 1923 and served through a contentious 1952 election into the 17th Iranian Majlis,[7] until his government was overthrown in the 1953 Iranian coup d'état aided by the intelligence agencies of the United Kingdom (MI6) and the United States (CIA), led by Kermit Roosevelt Jr.[8][9] Mosaddegh's National Front was accordingly suppressed in the undemocratically manipulated 1954 general election.

His time as prime minister was marked by the clash with the British government, known as the Abadan Crisis, following the nationalisation of the Iranian oil industry, which had been built by the British on Persian lands since 1913 through the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC/AIOC), later known as British Petroleum (BP).

In the aftermath of the overthrow, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi consolidated power and negotiated the Consortium Agreement of 1954 with the British, which gave split ownership of Iranian oil production between Iran and Western companies until 1979."