Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

Kharg island

I believe that the right hand tip of the island was some kind of military base and that it was the target of much of the bombing. There were also artillery and missile launchers all around the shoreline and those were hit too.

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[Magical Realist]

General Bonespurs is now crying for military help from oil-buying countries to help retake the Straight of Hormuz. What happened to "We've already won the war!" "This will all be over very soon!" "Iran is helpless now!" Methinks the unpredictable reality of war is starting to sink in now.

[Syne]

The US doesn't have much reliance on oil through the Strait, so Trump is saying the countries that do should be pitching in.
You know, "pay your fair share."

[Zinjanthropos]

The US doesn't have much reliance on oil through the Strait, so Trump is saying the countries that do should be pitching in.
You know, "pay your fair share."

Oil aside, there seems to be a quandary. Trump has so far avoided ordering American boots on the ground. Combat soldiers would probably end the war sooner but will suffer a high casualty rate. As that number rises daily, it will undoubtedly support the left’s cause. So is the left actually hoping for more Americans killed in combat to get that support they need? Trump it seems, can only win American public approval if the war is a short one. Longer it goes on, then will Trump demand that only Israeli fight on the ground, seeing how air and naval is basically in American control? To me it seems American ground troops won’t be participating much unless Israeli army starts taking a beating.

[Yazata]

Israel is said to be running critically short of interceptor missiles, having used so many in the June 12-day war.

Luckily the volume of Iranian missiles being launched each day is going down dramatically as the Iranians run out of missiles that haven't been blown up by the Americans. What's more, there are several US Navy destroyers in the Eastern Mediterranean able to launch anti-missile missiles as well as a number of well stocked batteries just to the east in Jordan.

One thing that the Iranians are doing that makes it harder for the Israelis to intercept their missiles is using cluster warheads that break apart during reentry into a number of smaller bomblets. That creates a shotgun type effect but each individual impact is smaller.

Skyline of Tel Aviv. This is what modern 21'st century warfare looks like.

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Here's where one impacted in Holon, a Tel Aviv suburb. I see burning cars, one flipped upside down, but little damage to the adjoining buildings.

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[Syne]

The US doesn't have much reliance on oil through the Strait, so Trump is saying the countries that do should be pitching in.
You know, "pay your fair share."

Oil aside, there seems to be a quandary. Trump has so far avoided ordering American boots on the ground. Combat soldiers would probably end the war sooner but will suffer a high casualty rate. As that number rises daily, it will undoubtedly support the left’s cause. So is the left actually hoping for more Americans killed in combat to get that support they need? Trump it seems, can only win American public approval if the war is a short one. Longer it goes on, then will Trump demand that only Israeli fight on the ground, seeing how air and naval is basically in American control? To me it seems American ground troops won’t be participating much unless Israeli army starts taking a beating.

The left was already screaming that 4 US soldiers dying was too many. The problem is that the left has no conception of historical casualty rates compared to the amount of damage we've already done. Boots on the ground will only be necessary for very limited and specific operations, like securing/destroying nuclear enrichment products/facilities, securing Kharg Island, etc..

But yes, the vocal left is hoping for America to lose, more US casualties, and for the Ayatollah/mullahs to survive. Trump has, again, tricked them into cheering on actual fascists, just due to their knee-jerk TDS.

Trump can legally pursue the operation for 90 days before congressional approval, but Congress hasn't declared war since WWII, so both Democrat and Republican presidents have waged much longer wars without such approval.

Yeah, Israel has much more motivation to secure nuclear facilities/materials than we do, although we don't want to leave the job half done.

[Yazata]

According to Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida (but most emphatically not verified anywhere else) the new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was severely injured by US/Israeli airstrikes and has been secretly transported to Moscow where he underwent surgery. The report states that he remains in a Russian hospital.

The Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya is reporting that General Mohammad Karami, the commander of IRGC ground forces has been killed in an air strike.

The Trump administration is busily forming an international naval coalition to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. It's expected that it will be formally announced sometime this week.

The US Army is firing ATACMS short range guided missiles from HIMARS launchers located in Kuwait into Iran. ATACMS missiles have about a 190 mile range.

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Israeli Public Broadcasting has announced a huge military call-up of up to 450,000 Israeli army reservists (which would be all of Israel's reserves) for a major operation into Lebanon. Speculation is that Israel plans to occupy all of the Shi'ite majority areas in southern Lebanon to uproot Hezbollah once and for all. If they do that, the Lebanese government in Beirut would probably scream bloody murder officially in public, while privately and unofficially applauding the Israelis for helping get rid of the Hezbollah state-within-their-state

Following false claims that Israeli PM Netanyahu was dead, he made an appearance at a coffee shop somewhere in Israel and looks fine.

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[Yazata]

The Iranian space research center in Tehran was hit on Friday. It's speculated that it was involved in missile development.

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IRGC were gathering at Azadi stadium in Tehran and it was hit with an airstrike. (Large soccer football stadium)

Photos smuggled out show Basij using taxi's as their vehicles at checkpoints. They are doing their best to blend in.

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Big airstrike Friday on the Iranian army base housing their 21st infantry division south of Tabriz

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Ten more F-35A's arrived from the United States at RAF Lakenheath today.

[Zinjanthropos]

How do you identify an Iranian traitor? Ans: He’s the guy who doesn’t show up for a meeting.

Must be difficult for the Iranian leaders to be in the same room without casting a suspicious eye on fellow attendees. Can’t be comfortable belonging to that group. They’ve probably resorted to using electronic devices from separate locations but that might allow tracking. What’s best way to get together without getting killed?

Who’s taking the fuzzy yellow cab pics, same guy who takes UAP pics?

[Syne]

President Trump Laughed Hysterically After Finding This Out About Iran's New Leader

Well, it appears at least one Iranian won’t have to worry about being thrown from a roof for being gay. President Donald Trump reportedly learned that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei might being playing for the other team.

Iran announced its new leader on March 8, after his father was blown to pieces during U.S. airstrikes. The new leader has not yet made a public appearance. But if the New York Post’s report is accurate, it could be because he is still hiding in the closet.

"President Trump was stunned to learn last week that US intelligence indicates new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be gay — and that his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, feared his suitability to rule the Islamic Republic for that reason, The Post can reveal.

Trump couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud when he was briefed on the intel, according to sources.

Others in the room also found it “hilarious” and joined the president’s reaction, while one senior intelligence official “has not stopped laughing about it for days,” said one person familiar with the briefing.

The shocking claim was described to The Post by two intelligence community officials and a third person close to the White House.

All three sources say the implausible-sounding allegation is viewed as credible by US spy agencies, rather than false information intended to undermine Khamenei, 56, who was selected to replace his dead father as supreme leader on March 8.

Two of the sources said the intelligence indicated that Mojtaba, who earned the nickname “the power behind the robes” while serving as his aging dad’s gatekeeper, has had a long-term sexual relationship with his childhood tutor.

The third source said the intelligence indicated the affair was with a person who formerly worked for the Khamenei family."

Of course, if the rumors are true, it might be more apt to refer to Khamenei as “the power bottom behind the robes.”

The State Department’s file on Khamenei suggested Mojtaba married later in life “due to an impotency problem treated and eventually resolved during three extended visits to the UK.”
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