Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Syne]

No sure why trying to free the Iranians from decades of oppression is a joking matter. Same childish rancor that made Democrats stay seated for an immigrant victim or duty to US citizens? If the Romans took baths, you shouldn't, huh?

[C C]

The Iranian Regime’s Existential Crisis-and What Might Come After Khamenei: A Conversation With Karim Sadjadpour
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran...enei-trump

EXCERPTS: When historians look back at this moment in the not too distant future, they will view this not as a war of necessity but as a war of choice. There was no imminent threat of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons or launching attacks on the United States and its allies and partners in the Middle East. But both the United States and Israel see an opportunity to exploit the weakness of one of their worst adversaries. Iran does not control its own airspace as a result of last June’s war, its regional proxies are decimated, and it’s feeling existential angst as a result of the popular uprising.

Trump also has a personal stake here. In January, on at least nine occasions, he drew firm redlines, insisting that if Iran killed protesters the United States would come to their aid. Trump incited people to the streets during those protests, telling them to go seize state institutions and that help was “on the way.” For Trump, the greatest motivating factor seemed to be his own credibility, more than any imminent threat to the United States.

Khamenei’s death could result in the regime and its security forces closing ranks in order to survive, or it could serve as the equivalent of a giant cannon blast blowing a hole in a ship, causing the ship to sink and its leadership to bail out to save their own skins. The issue with this regime is that it’s one of the loneliest regimes in the world. There isn’t a good exit plan for any Iranian officials. There are very few places in the world where they can go into exile. For many of them, they assume that they must either kill or be killed.

It’s likely that they rush to close ranks behind a new leader, whether a cleric or a Revolutionary Guards commander, rather than allow some greater power transition to take place. But whenever someone who has been ruling for four decades abruptly departs, it creates a power vacuum that could take many years to fill.

[Magical Realist]

No sure why trying to free the Iranians from decades of oppression is a joking matter. Same childish rancor that made Democrats stay seated for an immigrant victim or duty to US citizens? If the Romans took baths, you shouldn't, huh?

I remember a time when conservatives didn't want America to play the role of World Police, getting involved in chaotic countries' affairs and imposing its own ideals on them. You know, nationalism and isolationism and all. What the hell happened?

[Syne]

No sure why trying to free the Iranians from decades of oppression is a joking matter. Same childish rancor that made Democrats stay seated for an immigrant victim or duty to US citizens? If the Romans took baths, you shouldn't, huh?

I remember a time when conservatives didn't want America to play the role of World Police, getting involved in chaotic countries' affairs and imposing its own ideals on them. You know, nationalism and isolationism and all. What the hell happened?

No, only conspiratorial dolts like Tucker Carlson are diehard isolationists. Most conservatives openly admit that the world suffers whenever the US withdraws from leading globally, which is how Biden's weakness led to both the Gaza and Ukraine wars (not to mention the botched Afghanistan withdrawal).

So which "conservatives" are you talking about? The strawman you merely imagine? @_@

We're against occupation and nation-building which requires significant US troops on the ground and has repeatedly proven to be a quagmire. But surgical decapitations that can open the chance for self-determined regime change are a global, regional, and moral good. Especially with the leading sponsor of terrorism.

Why, do you have a problem with that? Or just mindlessly railing against anything Trump does? 9_9

[Magical Realist]

In 2016, Trump promised in his first foreign policy campaign speech, "We're getting out of the nation-building business and instead focusing on creating stability in the world."

Just before taking office the first time, in December 2016, he said, "We will stop racing to topple foreign regimes that we know nothing about, that we shouldn't be involved with."

More recently, at the Libertarian Party convention in 2024, Trump said, "We believe that the job of the United States military is not to wage endless regime change, wars around the globe, senseless wars. The job of the United States military is to defend America from attack and invasion here at home."

[Yazata]

Iranian state television has officially announced the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

(And X has lost one of its more exotic and outspoken participants...)

[Image: HCSenYGaAAA7OSm?format=jpg&name=900x900]

---

Chinese satellite photo of Al Salem air base in Kuwait. Several plumes of smoke are visible, I'm guessing that the darkest one is burning fuel storage.

[Image: HCSXtKnaMAARDpl?format=jpg&name=medium]

[Yazata]

"The most devastating offensive operation in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran's armed forces is set to begin shortly, targeting Israel and US bases", according to Iranian state TV. An visibly emotional anchor on Iranian state television erupted in anger, declaring that President Donald Trump is going to pay a price no American president has ever paid. Revenge is coming like never seen before.

[Syne]

In 2016, Trump promised in his first foreign policy campaign speech, "We're getting out of the nation-building business and instead focusing on creating stability in the world."

Just before taking office the first time, in December 2016, he said, "We will stop racing to topple foreign regimes that we know nothing about, that we shouldn't be involved with."

More recently, at the Libertarian Party convention in 2024, Trump said, "We believe that the job of the United States military is not to wage endless regime change, wars around the globe, senseless wars. The job of the United States military is to defend America from attack and invasion here at home."

Trump, and most conservatives, still agree on not engaging in nation-building. Short-term surgical strikes are not "endless regime change" nor even wars. They open the door to a country's people to forge their own new path. This differs, from former attempts at regime change, by us not trying to fit our Western, democratic values on cultures that may not be ready for them, like Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.. It's ending objectively evil regimes without trying to unduly influence the what takes their place.

Does any of this get through to you, or does it just get buried in your hatred?

[Syne]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Wfyzq8mDsxw

[Yazata]

The Iranians seem to me to be firing more or less wildly at all of their Persian gulf neighbors. Many drones and missiles are hitting the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Airports have been hit and hotels and high rises are on fire.

A striking fact is that the UAE has received as much Iranian fire as Israel! Perhaps Iran saw how effective Israeli missile defenses are (not perfect, but they intercept a majority of what Iran throws at them) and decided they could get more bang for their buck blasting the Gulf Arabs.

The current count stands at:


Bahrain 45 Missiles 9 Drones
Iraq Unknown number reports from Erbil 7 volleys of Iranian missiles and drones
Israel 200+ Missiles 12+ Drones
Jordan 13 Missiles 36~ Drones
Kuwait "multiple missiles" 2+ Drones
Qatar 66 Missiles
KSA Unknown Number
Syria 1+ Missile
UAE 137 Missiles 209 Drones

Totals for February 28 2026
462+ missiles
268+ drones
730+ total projectiles

Bahrain:

[Image: HCTKwtSWAAATvaI?format=jpg&name=small]

Dubai:

[Image: HCTGGzsa0AEGXT3?format=jpg&name=900x900]

US military base at Erbil in Iraq:

[Image: HCS59Q9bEAU_2ax?format=jpg&name=small]