Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Zinjanthropos]

In some way I think Trump managed to make American great again, if only for a few days. May last longer, who knows?

I try to imagine a world where the Arab states have the most powerful armed forces. Then I think, what if Israel had the strongest forces?

Don’t think either of those scenarios would work so yah, I think Trump just showed us a little of the power the US has that can affect the world. It has to be respected IMHO.

[Yazata]

Now Iranian representatives are telling CNN that they haven't agreed to a ceasefire and didn't even know about it. Hopefully Iran has agreed, but word still hasn't made its way through all the layers of their government down to the PR reps.

Reuters is reporting that the ceasefire was proposed by the United States and communicated to Iran by the Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister serving as intermediaries.

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A senior Iranian official is now telling Reuters that the ceasefire proposal has indeed been accepted by Iran.

For its part, Israel says they have no comment. Israeli air strikes are continuing in Tehran as they get their last licks in.

[C C]

Now Iranian representatives are saying that they haven't agreed to a ceasefire.

When are public figures going to learn that microblogging their actual personal thoughts, intents, wishes, etc to the world actually undermines the formal perceptions and procedural make-believe? It's kind of like allowing opponents to read one's mind -- which reveals the naïve thoughts transpiring in those private spaces as much as the craftiness.

[...] A senior Iranian official is now telling Reuters that the ceasefire proposal has indeed been accepted by Iran.

Granting that he's not just doing the equivalent of microblogging what he indepedently wants to be the case, himself.

[Yazata]

This is reportedly how it went down:

After the missile attack on Al Ubeid, Iran sent a message via Qatari intermediaries to the White House that their retaliation for the nuclear site attacks was completed.

The US replied, again through the Qataris, that the US would not respond militarily to the Al Ubeid attack and that the US wanted to discuss peace.

At which point the White House made multiple calls, directly to the Israelis and indirectly (through the Qataris) to Iran. The ceasefire terms were hammered out and agreed to by all sides.

[C C]

This is reportedly how it went down:

After the missile attack on Al Ubeid, Iran sent a message via Qatari intermediaries to the White House that their retaliation for the nuclear site attacks was completed.

The US replied, again through the Qataris, that the US would not respond militarily to the Al Ubeid attack and that the US wanted to discuss peace.

At which point the White House made multiple calls, directly to the Israelis and indirectly (through the Qataris) to Iran. The ceasefire terms were hammered out and agreed to by all sides.

That will be truly amazing if it holds up. On the negative side for Israel, the end of the 2025 Iran-Israel War would mean a return to the world soapbox focus on Gaza.

[Yazata]

Israel says that Iran just fired missiles at Israel. No reports of impacts but several interceptions.

Hopefully this doesn't mean that the ceasefire failed almost before it began. I'm speculating that it might be some rogue IRGC missile unit fanatics who don't like the idea of a ceasefire. Either that, or some missile unit that didn't get the memo. Communications are said to be pretty bad in Iran right now.

[Zinjanthropos]

If Iran had enough time to assess the bunker damage and should the bombs not have affected their plans that much then why not go for ceasefire? Does USA require a full close up inspection of the destruction site or take Iran’s word for it? Going to need intel if not allowed.

[Syne]

Trump asked Israel to not retaliate for an Iran missile strike right before the ceasefire was to begin. Looks like Israel has agreed.

[Magical Realist]

Typical made-up BS from Trump...


WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - "A preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment has determined that U.S. strikes over the weekend on Iranian nuclear facilities have set back Tehran's program by only a matter of months, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The initial report was prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's main intelligence arm and one of 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, said two of the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss classified matters.

The classified assessment is at odds with the statements of President Donald Trump and high-ranking U.S. officials - including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. They have said the weekend strikes, which used a combination of bunker-busting bombs and more conventional weapons, essentially eliminated Iran's nuclear program.

Trump's administration on Tuesday told the U.N Security Council that its weekend strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities had "degraded" Iran's nuclear program, short of Trump's earlier assertion that the facilities had been "obliterated."

Asked for comment, the White House pointed to a statement by spokesperson Karoline Leavitt to CNN, which first reported the assessment, that the "alleged" conclusion was "flat-out wrong."

[Syne]

Anonymous sources... and from Reuters. 9_9