Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

Photo of Russian army inside Irpin

[Image: FNv4-MSXEAcZDTu?format=jpg&name=small]

[stryder]

If the Ukraine falls, there is going to be a large amount of Russia Hypocrisy.

Consider the argument that Putin made, the reason for his push was the concern of Ukraine joining NATO and having nuclear weapons on his doorstep.

If Russia takes the Ukraine the first thing they are likely to do is move Nuclear launchers into the country to put on the Polish border and do what they accused NATO of attempting to do.

This in turn could cause problems within NATO as such things being in such a close proximity is likely to panick all European countries. That could effect funding as well as the pact itself. Not to forget completely undermining the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaties. (Yes the number of Nukes might not go up, but the replacement is destablising.)

This likely means Putin can't keep the Ukraine(at least on paper), having a country between the NATO border and Russia is the only reason the west has not come to blows with Russia in recent years.

[stryder]

I'm a little worried about the war and the brain drain it could cause.

One of the many things I do in my spare time is play computer games, specifically RTS. One such game franchise is called of "Men at War" created by Best Way.

Best Way is the Ukrainian games development company located in Sievierodonetsk, Luhans'k, Ukraine. Currently that location has been suffering from heavy Russian Shelling, I can only hope the programmers and their families can keep as safe as possible, as the loss of their games (Meaning the talent they put into them) would be tragedy.

They were in the process of getting read to release their newest version of the Men of War games "Men of War 2". The games themselves for the most part are set around the World War 2 theatres, which means their artists and modellers would of spent many hours researching World War 2 uniforms, weapons, armour etc. Is it possible that FSB dolts mistook their research for Nazi's? Could this entire push into the Ukraine just been down to a game being developed? or due to some upset fans creating a form of FSB swatting?

[Yazata]

Day 18 Summary

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...8-summary/

There aren't any major changes since day 17.

It isn't clear why the Russian offensive has slowed to a crawl. Perhaps they are trying to get their logistics problems fixed.

[Kornee]

If the Ukraine falls, there is going to be a large amount of Russia Hypocrisy. 

Consider the argument that Putin made, the reason for his push was the concern of Ukraine joining NATO and having nuclear weapons on his doorstep. 

If Russia takes the Ukraine the first thing they are likely to do is move Nuclear launchers into the country to put on the Polish border and do what they accused NATO of attempting to do.

This in turn could cause problems within NATO as such things being in such a close proximity is likely to panick all European countries.  That could effect funding as well as the pact itself.  Not to forget completely undermining the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaties.  (Yes the number of Nukes might not go up, but the replacement is destablising.)

This likely means Putin can't keep the Ukraine(at least on paper), having a country between the NATO border and Russia is the only reason the west has not come to blows with Russia in recent years.

And that is anything more than pure supposition? Any credible 'Kremlin leaks' to back it up?

[stryder]

...
If Russia takes the Ukraine the first thing they are likely to do is move Nuclear launchers into the country to put on the Polish border and do what they accused NATO of attempting to do....

And that is anything more than pure supposition? Any credible 'Kremlin leaks' to back it up?

It is indeed supposition (No leaks or intel, other than history), however you need to consider the grand scheme of things. Such methods are a strategy used in grandstanding.
If Ukraine is occupied or assimilated, what would stop the Ukraine being taken back by counter-Russian forces?

You can take it with a pinch of salt if you like, however it's one of those things that if not considered is likely to bite people in the backside later.

[Kornee]

...
If Russia takes the Ukraine the first thing they are likely to do is move Nuclear launchers into the country to put on the Polish border and do what they accused NATO of attempting to do....

And that is anything more than pure supposition? Any credible 'Kremlin leaks' to back it up?

It is indeed supposition (No leaks or intel, other than history), however you need to consider the grand scheme of things.  Such methods are a strategy used in grandstanding. 
If Ukraine is occupied or assimilated, what would stop the Ukraine being taken back by counter-Russian forces?

You can take it with a pinch of salt if you like, however it's one of those things that if not considered is likely to bite people in the backside later.

One of the key actions following the USSR breakup was complete transfer of all remaining military nukes from Ukraine to Russia.

If they were crazy enough to now reverse that, it runs the real risk of those weapons falling into the hands of a future pro-Western NATO member Ukraine. Should another Soros planned uprising seize power as repeat of 2014 Maidan revolution/coup. Or at best involve yet another costly invasion to forestall such a revolution/coup.

[Secular Sanity]

Excerpts from the NEW York Times, which BTW, launched a new free platform, a Telegram channel to cover the war.

In private, officials express concern that Mr. Putin might seek to take Moldova, another former Soviet republic that has never joined NATO and is considered particularly vulnerable. There is renewed apprehension about Georgia, which fought a war with Russia in 2008 that today seems like a test run for the far larger conflict playing out.

And there is the possibility that Mr. Putin, angered by the slowness of his offensive in Ukraine, may reach for other weapons: chemical, biological, nuclear and cyber.

A Kremlin spokesman and a confidant of Mr. Putin, said that if Ukraine changed its constitution to accept some form of “neutrality” rather than an aspiration to join NATO; recognized that the separatist areas of Donetsk and Lugansk were independent states, and that Crimea was part of Russia; the military strikes would stop “in a moment.”

In an interview with ABC News the next day, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine seemed surprisingly open to the idea. He said he had “cooled down” on joining NATO, saying it was clear the Western alliance “is not prepared to accept Ukraine.” And while he did not say he could accept a carve-out of part of the country, he said that “we can discuss and find a compromise on how these territories will live on.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/us/po...dgame.html

Protesters have blocked a border crossing between Poland and Belarus for several days:

In an attempt to stop cargo trucks, they say are headed for Ukraine via Belarus with supplies for the Russian army.

European Union sanctions against Russia and Belarus do not apply to road transit of food and medications. That means cargo continues moving overland between the E.U. and Russia and Belarus. Hundreds of private trucks with Russian and Belarusian plates cross the border each day, with the line stretching for almost 10 miles on Saturday, according to the local police.

The protest inspired similar actions at other border crossings over the weekend, and another in front of the office of Poland’s prime minister in Warsaw, calling on the authorities to completely close the Polish border to Russian and Belarusian trucks.

A French government account of a call to Mr. Putin on Saturday by Mr. Macron and Mr. Scholz termed it “disappointing with Putin’s insincerity: He is determined to continue the war.” Wendy Sherman, the deputy secretary of state, said there was no evidence from the conversations so far that Mr. Putin has changed course; he remains “intent on destroying Ukraine.”
And if Russia can seize Odessa, a pivotal Black Sea port city, and perhaps the remaining Ukrainian coast to the southeast, it would deprive Ukraine of important access to the sea.
Senior Pentagon officials said the key issue now is maintaining extreme pressure on Russia in hopes that Mr. Putin will cut his losses and settle for the Russian-speaking south and east.

Now would be a good time for us to take China up on its offer to enter into negotiations before everything is settled between Ukraine and Russia.

We still have some leverage with the Nord Stream pipeline. Opening it and easing some of the sanctions would defuse Russia’s moves on taking more of Ukraine for the time being, but we'd need safe passage for all the Nordic countries to join NATO immediately. In addition to that, we should ask for Kaliningrad to be returned to Germany. The pipeline has given Russia the pretext to increase their military presence in the Baltic Sea and gain military intelligence. There have been reports of them upgrading nuclear weapons storage facilities in Kaliningrad. It’s Russia's only port on the Baltic Sea that remains ice-free in the winter. They also started a nuclear power plant to become self-sufficient. Perhaps, in preparation for our current situation. In China’s eyes, given their recent settlement along their borders with Russia, the request would be seen as completely reasonable. Germany could continue the project on the nuclear power plant, which would allow them to wean off Russian oil, and then we could shore up our security in the Baltic Sea.

Just sayin’ 

[confused2]

From https://inews.co.uk/news/world/putin-whe...ed-1509006
also appearing in many other sources .. from day 16 and further back..

Outlining the list of Russian demands to end the war, Mr Peskov said Ukraine must acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, recognise the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent states and change its constitution to enshrine neutrality and remain out of any bloc, namely Nato.

Compared to watching the country reduced to rubble, to me it doesn't look too bad an offer.

[stryder]

From https://inews.co.uk/news/world/putin-whe...ed-1509006
also appearing in many other sources .. from day 16  and further back..

Outlining the list of Russian demands to end the war, Mr Peskov said Ukraine must acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, recognise the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent states and change its constitution to enshrine neutrality and remain out of any bloc, namely Nato.

Compared to watching the country reduced to rubble, to me it doesn't look too bad an offer.

The problem is blood has been spilt, Which means Ukraine agreeing to those terms is as good as having commited genocide on their own people.
Ukraine requires War reparation, not forced to capitulate to handing over their territory or giving into demands.

Such Reparations could be Russia ceding the Crimea to the Ukraine. If Putin wants the Ukraine to see a province as an Independent, then it should be done so democratically... As the people of the province what they want. The problem with this of course is it would require international monitoring in regards to voting, and there would have to be a time period on when people were supposedly naturalised to the area. (Russia hiring a bunch of goons to push the vote a particular way won't count.) That itself is just the Reparation of the borders, there is then the cost of the damage done to the country, it's infilstructure, it's military, it's peoples lives. How much is a life worth? Is it worth more if it's a young person who's lost over that of someone older?

That's why it's not as simple as just Capitulate.