Russian Ukraine Invasion

[RainbowUnicorn]

putin throwing a tanty

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61847300
Russia's Putin condemns 'mad and thoughtless' Western sanctions


sanctions must be working
good
more
stop buying their oil & gas

deny them all electronics

[stryder]

putin throwing a tanty

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61847300
Russia's Putin condemns 'mad and thoughtless' Western sanctions


sanctions must be working
good
more
stop buying their oil & gas

deny them all electronics

Sanctions are likely only moderately useful.

I'm pretty sure Russia's been planning this (and western agression) awhile and they'd been stockpiling their orc(war)chest for a long while (at least two decades). I assume this because the USSR fell initially due to financial instability which the west was likely seen as the instigator of. It therefore would make sense that some of the older powergrabbers (Soviet Ultra-Nationalists) would be anti-western at the core and would of literally planned a retaliation to occur decades later. (Putin's manipulate into a position where it would be very difficult to be freely removed through a vote or democratic mandate supports this theory)

I'd considered these points well in advance of their current war effort. They have been using their war effort (and their involvement in foriegn political manipulation, sabotage, espionage and assassinations) to destabilise the economy (likely just to hit at the west). There had already been two economic blights prior to Covid (2008/2015 stock crashes) that were likely Russian attempts at destabilising the market. It's just another reason why it's a bad idea buying anything from Russia (giving them money just for them to destabilise the market is beyond stupid.)

The reality is that their Orc-chest (brimming with stolen loot hoards) will likely take between 5-10 years to reach the level that they would step down from their current aggression. That however is 5-10 years that all the countries that disagree with their actions are going to have to work out alternative ways of doing things, and make sure that people don't support Russia directly (or indirectly) further (otherwise it will be like the covid lockdowns that increased in duration because it wasn't nipped in the bud properly to begin with, supporting them would lengthen their hold out period).

Countries are still slow on the uptake of how to withdraw from Russian dependancies, it might be necessary for someone to actually force that position by sabotaging the pipelines (although it would be foolish for just someone of an emotional state to do it, since it requires more planning)

Ideally someone (An EU plan) should setup a port for external oil resources to be delivered, tap it into the current pipelines that exist in Europe so it can be delivered to Europe and blow up the Russian connections. Pulling resources like oil and gas through the pipeline means none of the European countries would be cut off from resources, so it wouldn't lead to internal arguements or unwittingly support Russia, as such european countries wouldn't need Russia.

[Kornee]

putin throwing a tanty

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61847300
Russia's Putin condemns 'mad and thoughtless' Western sanctions


sanctions must be working
good
more
stop buying their oil & gas

deny them all electronics

Are you by any chance RainbowSingularity over at SF? Can't help but notice the same style of serial posting YouTube vids showing Ukrainians sticking it to the 'Orcs'.

[Yazata]

Another informative briefing from the Austrian Army military academy. This one emphasizes the armor and artillery being supplied by the West and why it appears to be inadaquate given Ukraine's needs. The Ukrainians need longer range artillery and better air defenses to protect their forces. (Again, this Austrian officer repeats many of the points that RainbowUnicorn has been making here.)

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Sd4xRBuVs48

[RainbowUnicorn]

Are you by any chance RainbowSingularity over at SF? Can't help but notice the same style of serial posting YouTube vids showing Ukrainians sticking it to the 'Orcs'.

one in the same
ive been a member there for about 30 years

---

putin throwing a tanty

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61847300
Russia's Putin condemns 'mad and thoughtless' Western sanctions


sanctions must be working
good
more
stop buying their oil & gas

deny them all electronics

Sanctions are likely only moderately useful. 

I'm pretty sure Russia's been planning this (and western agression) awhile and they'd been stockpiling their orc(war)chest for a long while (at least two decades).  I assume this because the USSR fell initially due to financial instability which the west was likely seen as the instigator of.  It therefore would make sense that some of the older powergrabbers (Soviet Ultra-Nationalists) would be anti-western at the core and would of literally planned a retaliation to occur decades later.  (Putin's manipulate into a position where it would be very difficult to be freely removed through a vote or democratic mandate supports this theory)

I'd considered these points well in advance of their current war effort.  They have been using their war effort (and their involvement in foriegn political manipulation, sabotage, espionage and assassinations) to destabilise the economy (likely just to hit at the west).  There had already been two economic blights prior to Covid (2008/2015 stock crashes) that were likely Russian attempts at destabilising the market.  It's just another reason why it's a bad idea buying anything from Russia (giving them money just for them to destabilise the market is beyond stupid.)

The reality is that their Orc-chest (brimming with stolen loot hoards) will likely take between 5-10 years to reach the level that they would step down from their current aggression.  That however is 5-10 years that all the countries that disagree with their actions are going to have to work out alternative ways of doing things, and make sure that people don't support Russia directly (or indirectly) further (otherwise it will be like the covid lockdowns that increased in duration because it wasn't nipped in the bud properly to begin with, supporting them would lengthen their hold out period).

Countries are still slow on the uptake of how to withdraw from Russian dependancies, it might be necessary for someone to actually force that position by sabotaging  the pipelines (although it would be foolish for just someone of an emotional state to do it, since it requires more planning)

Ideally someone (An EU plan) should setup a port for external oil resources to be delivered, tap it into the current pipelines that exist in Europe so it can be delivered to Europe and blow up the Russian connections.  Pulling resources like oil and gas through the pipeline means none of the European countries would be cut off from resources, so it wouldn't lead to internal arguements or unwittingly support Russia, as such european countries wouldn't need Russia.

i have been wondering how long they have been preparing
i agree with what your saying but i believe putin wont be able to hold the countrys top job for more than 2 years after the tide of the war changes
my suspicion is based on the length of time it takes dead russians to be returned to their familys and for word to spread amongst russians so they know joining the military will be a 50/50 death sentence

if the average russian youth stop engaging with the state system it will grind to a halt
that will drive up black markets and the speed at which russians leave russia will vastly increase as the common russian sees a terrible future for their children.
putin will be held accountable to turning the country back 80 years into a shell of what it was recently.

and then the political system will want to find someone who appeals to the youth and has a different face
and putin will be forced to resign

grass roots pressure from the socialist party seeking to bring back normal electronic goods to its people will be considerable

in the mean time where will the rich stick their money for security ?
middle east and china probably

[Yazata]

Here's an interesting view of how the war is going from Igor Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, one of the Russian leaders of the Seperatists in the so-called Donetsk People's Republic. Former Russian Army and FSB veteran. One-time Defense Minister of the Donetsk People's Republic. Even more of a hard-liner than Vladimir Putin (he thinks Russia should just annex both Ukraine and Belarus) but not hesitant to criticise the Kremlin for how he thinks they botched the war. Just from reading this, he comes across as something of a realist regarding the military realities.

[Image: FVoBar1XwAIRP7J?format=jpg&name=large]

[Image: FVoBbliWYAEi1DM?format=jpg&name=large]

[Yazata]

Battle update:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...nt-june-19

Around Kharkiv there's relatively light fighting as the Russians try to preserve a strip of occupied land south of the border within artillery range of Kharkiv (Ukraine's second largest city) and the Ukrainians try to push them away. The Russians continue to shell Kharkiv with longer range artillery and missiles.

West of Izium, the Russians have withdrawn many of their troops to reinforce the Severodonetsk area and the Ukrainians are taking advantage. They have been crossing the Severskyi Donets river in small boats and infiltrating small squad-sized units through the woods between the river and Izium. They have been ambushing Russian troops there, in some cases right outside Izium. The Ukrainians hope to disrupt the supply lines feeding the Russian advance on Slovyansk.

East of Izium where most of the Russian forces in the area are, they are on the attack towards Slovyansk. The Ukrainians have been fighting back hard at a village called Dolyna, and there are unconfirmed claims that the Russians have captured it. The Russians are even closer to Slovyansk on the Lyman side, but the Ukrainians have them stopped at the river in that sector.

The battle for Severodonetsk is starting to resemble the battle for Mariupol. The Ukrainian defenders are semi cut-off since all the bridges across the Severskyi Donets have been destroyed. The Russians have taken the residential and downtown parts of the city but an unknown number of Ukrainian soldiers remain holed up in some industrial plants on the west side of the city by the river. The Russians seem hesitant to send their own soldiers into this area to root the Ukrainians out, so they are using massed artillery and aircraft to blast the whole area into oblivion while their ground forces stand back. It's unknown how many Ukrainian fighters remain there and whether they can be withdrawn back across the river under fire. I'd like to think almost all of them have already been evacuated and the Russians are just scared of a bunch of empty factory buildings.

Across the river from Severodonetsk is its twin city of Lysychansk. It appears more secure at the moment, since it's unclear whether the Russians could successfully attack it from across the river. The river swings around and heads west just to the north and has become the front line-of-contact across its length all the way to Izium. The Russians seem held back (temporarily?) in the north. So they are attacking from the south of Lysychansk. But their progress there is slow. They have taken several small towns south of Lysychansk but are only advancing a few kilometers at a time. The biggest battle seems to be on the north side of the Popasna breakout, where the Russians have cut the main road east to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. (The Ukrainians in that area seem to be in danger of encirclement on several scales.)

Along most of the southern front along the north shore of the Sea of Azov, things are (relatively) quiet. The Russians seem to have stopped advancing northwards (for the time being at least) and seem more interested in holding the territory they have seized. The Ukrainians don't have any forces to spare to retake these areas, but are launching more of the small harassment attacks, in hopes of forcing the Russians to garrison these towns and not redeploy the forces elsewhere. Interestingly, there are increasing reports of Ukrainian civilian partisan resistance in the Melitopol area, ambushing Russian occupation troops.

And to the west around the Kherson-Mikolaiv front, the Russians seem to expect a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The severely-depleted Ukrainian Air Force is still conducting offensive operations here and the Russians have never been able to establish control of the air. The Ukrainians have been launching a number of relatively small attacks, taking a village here and there, and inching closer to Kherson a kilometer at a time. But no major changes in the situation so far. The Russians expect the Ukrainians to be more active here in the future, since it might represent their best opportunity to retake territory.

Out in the Black Sea south of Odessa, the Ukrainians used missiles to sink a large ocean-going Russian navy "rescue tug", the Spasatel Vasily Bekh. The Russians were using it to resupply their garrison on tiny Snake Island and the Ukrainians hope to cut those soldiers off from resupply.

[Image: FVcNBUAWQAE0FC5?format=jpg&name=small]

All in all, I see little sign of the "operational pause" that Igor Girkin talks about in the post above. Fighting seems to be occurring about about the same rate as it has been in the last few months and the Russians are definitely still trying to advance in several areas.

[Image: Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%2019%2C2022.png]

[RainbowUnicorn]

russia making threats against Lithuania . . .
i would suggest polish military joint exercise with Lithuania as NATO troops move toward the polish Lithuania  border to fill the gap created by the polish troops moving into Lithuania .
and put air defense on alert on the polish border
stretch a defensive umbrella over

thats my knee jerk thought
how and what is the question and can NATO air defense reach that far comfortably

...
after reading the above posts and looking at the pace of battle
i suspect russia is waiting to bring in new recruit conscripts into its forces before it makes a new push.
they are probably waiting to see if they can pick off the new long range artillery with air attacks too.

thats why its soo critical to have high tech air defense covering the new long range artillery.

i think Russia is now in a bombard then occupy mode & they need new recruits to be part of the occupy and forward push into no mans land before they can pull up their artillery closer and then push some more.

Ukraine need to be trying to save as many of their own troops as possible and not get dragged into a soldier attrition
Ukraine front need to stay highly mobile
it doesn't matter if they lose a town or village here or there as long as they preserve their fighting strength.
Russia will be able to over run Ukrainian front lines if Ukraine allow their troops numbers to drop too much
and that will allow Russia to take out the advantage of Ukraine NEW long range artillery.

the more russia has to move forward and back the more losses and exposed they become
staying highly mobile helps give advantage to ukraine

[confused2]

Gen Sir Patrick Sanders [of the British army], who started the job last week, addressed all ranks and civil servants in an internal message on 16 June 2022, seen by the BBC.
..
He adds the [British] Army and allies must now be "capable of...defeating Russia".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61858476

---

Before or after Russia takes Ukraine?

[Yazata]

russia making threats against Lithuania . . .

https://www.defensenews.com/2022/06/21/w...liningrad/

I think that Russia might have a legitimate complaint against Lithuania. Lithuania is an EU member. And on Saturday they announced the imposition of EU sanctions on Russian goods traveling through Lithuanian territory. This will have a huge impact on the small Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, a geographical oddity separate from the rest of Russia tucked between Lithuania and Poland. The Kaliningrad oblast is highly dependent on Russian goods imported by rail which Lithuania threatens to halt. Lithuania also says that it will be cutting off oil and gas pipelines upon which Kaliningrad is dependent for energy. Lithuania has already followed the rest of the EU and banned all Russian airlines from its skies.

So Russia feels provoked. Little Kaliningrad is essentially cut off except by sea by ships traveling down the Baltic from St. Petersburg.

[Image: Kaliningrad-Russia.jpg]

i would suggest polish military joint exercise with Lithuania as NATO troops move toward the polish Lithuania  border to fill the gap created by the polish troops moving into Lithuania .
and put air defense on alert on the polish border
stretch a defensive umbrella over

thats my knee jerk thought
how and what is the question and can NATO air defense reach that far comfortably

Next-door Poland is a NATO member that has a sizeable military and some US forces on its territory, so reaching Lithuania shouldn't be a big problem. In addition, Lithuania's Zokniai Air Base hosts NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission where NATO jets from various countries rotate in to fly quick reaction alerts (QRA) that scramble jets when airspace of the three baltic republics are intruded upon. Russia has actually been pretty good about not doing that and most of the time the NATO jets are scrambled to check out (the Russians say harass) Russian military aircraft flying to Kaliningrad over international waters in the Baltic Sea.

USAF F-15 jets in Zokniai. I believe that currently there are 8 Spanish F-18's and 5 Czech Gripens at the base.

[Image: 800px-U.S.A.F._F-15C%2C_493rd_Expedition...C_2014.jpg]

Lithuania is a NATO member, so the US and the rest of NATO are obligated to defend it if it is attacked. Which could produce an unpleasant situation since it's well known that Russia has nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad. So my expectation is that NATO will try to defuse the situation so as to avoid a confrontation with Russia that might threaten to go nuclear.