Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Syne]

See, if you're going to immediately run to yet another conspiracy as justification, it's obviously true that you are a conspiracy theorist.

Just like there's no need to assume malice when stupidity or incompetence will suffice, there no reason to assume a conspiracy when individuals acting on their human motivations will do.

To claim that bin Laden didn't do anything or there were never any WMDs in Iraq ignores the fact that the intelligence of every Western country all agreed on this intel. And doing so to create a false equivalency between the US, not trying to take territory, and Russia seeming to only have that as a motive is just intellectual lazy.

[Kornee]

See, if you're going to immediately run to yet another conspiracy as justification, it's obviously true that you are a conspiracy theorist.

Just like there's no need to assume malice when stupidity or incompetence will suffice, there no reason to assume a conspiracy when individuals acting on their human motivations will do.

To claim that bin Laden didn't do anything or there were never any WMDs in Iraq ignores the fact that the intelligence of every Western country all agreed on this intel. And doing so to create a false equivalency between the US, not trying to take territory, and Russia seeming to only have that as a motive is just intellectual lazy.

Bin Laden specifically denied any involvement in 9-11, to which even the FBI effectively concurred. And no the intelligence agencies of every Western country did not all agree with the 'New American Century' cults spiel re 'Iraqi WMD'.
But US political power got it's way. Brushing aside mass protests worldwide against going into Iraq on false pretexts. And intentionally leaving it a thoroughly broken and divided mess.

Clearly MSM + Marxist education system brainwashing has worked it's magic on a large part of the populace. One cannot argue rationally with those who have succumbed to it.

[Syne]

And that's how conspiracy theories insulate their promoters. Anything against the conspiracy is just written off as MSM, PC, brainwashing, etc..

You're obviously not worth my time. Ta ta, moron.

[Magical Realist]

Well Russia is invading Ukraine now. The exploding and bloodshed have begun. Let's start killing people over their real estate. Yippee! Has history taught us nothing?

I will note here for future reference that all the military intelligence of the US was spot on while Putin has been proven to be a damn liar.

[Syne]

And Ukraine just a day or two ago decided to let citizens carry guns. Before this, they only had "approximately 10 civilian firearms per 100 people." Probably too little too late.

[Yazata]

Reports that air bases and other military facilities in the outskirts of Kyiv and numerous other Ukrainian cities all over the country have been hit by cruise and ballistic missiles for about the last hour. That looks like an opening salvo intended to degrade Ukrainian air defenses before Russian air attacks begin.

Air raid sirens are sounding in Kyiv. Roads out of the city are absolutely jammed with cars of people trying to flee the city. Meanwhile streets in the center of the city appear almost deserted. Ukraine has declared martial law and is asking for people to remain in their homes.

There have been unconfirmed reports of a Russian amphibious landing near the port of Odessa.

So it looks like the war has started and that Russia is going big. One would expect large scale troop movements across Ukraine's borders in the next few hours.

Ukraine isn't powerless and has a fairly large army of its own. So Russia might find that this adventure will be more difficult than they envision. Lots of people are likely to be killed in what is shaping up to be the biggest war in Europe since World War II.

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Photos on twitter of really huge fireballs in the distance, looks like fuel or ammunition storage was hit. This photo outside Kyiv (posted by Ukr govt)

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Kharkiv

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Map, probably incomplete, of where missile attacks are reported

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[C C]

[...] Ukraine isn't powerless and has a fairly large army of its own. So Russia might find that this adventure will be more difficult than they envision. ...

Hope that turns out to be the case. But it's difficult to picture most continental European countries (from the late 1930s onward) putting up much of an extended struggle. Especially in the way of insurgent activity after they're whupped by invaders. (In contrast to the constant Guerrilla warfare by Afghans against Soviet troops back in the 1980s.) Even the Soviets needed the Russian winter in conjunction with Hitler's late syphilis-induced stupidity to halt the Nazis back in WWII.

Obviously, even a Slavic population can be a military factor when there's a "strong-man" regime or an authoritarian Party flogging their backs. But minus that fearful incentive, they historically seem to live up to the namesake. It's no wonder that they attract one despot micro-manager after another, who see them as ewe-eyed souls desperate for someone to tell them what to do.

[Yazata]

Russia is claiming that it's crippled Ukraine's air defense system

[Kornee]

And that's how conspiracy theories insulate their promoters. Anything against the conspiracy is just written off as MSM, PC, brainwashing, etc..

You're obviously not worth my time. Ta ta, moron.

Obviously reduced to crude ad homs. And we had such a nice initial rapport on other topics. Just goes to show - it takes time to make sound character judgements.

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The US and China will both be winners out of this but for different reasons. Unlike for its direct invasions in the ME and Afghanistan, the US can sit back while their NATO/Ukraine proxy forces cop all the fatalities and damaged infrastructure. With as always huge profits for bolstering NATO/Ukraine via its armament industries. And naturally the conflict will inevitably drain Russia both financially and militarily.

China benefits because its hand is strengthened as senior economic partner for Russia. And will doubtless take full advantage of Russia's desperate dependence on China as economic and political support lifeline.

[confused2]

Looks like Putin is intent on restoring the Russian empire.
If Ukraine had joined NATO there'd have been a major war when (not if) Putin invaded. So best to leave Ukraine where it is, sacrificial lamb style, and watch from the sidelines. Will Ukraine be enough for him? My guess is not. He seems to fit the charismatic leader pattern where the Russian population will accept whatever he wants so.. buckle up.