Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Magical Realist]

Well Trump is discussing peace with Zelensky today, even as overnight Russia attacked sections of Kiev causing wide scale power outages (no heat) and burning buildings. Is it just me or is there something wrong with this picture?

[C C]

Well Trump is discussing peace with Zelensky today, even as overnight Russia attacked sections of Kiev causing wide scale power outages (no heat) and burning buildings. Is it just me or is there something wrong with this picture?

It's circularly wild that Europe is supporting both the Ukrainian and the Russian war efforts at the same time. The first by loaning it billions for defense, and the second via indirectly continuing to purchase its fossil fuel. Since the EU hasn't been able to strictly conform to its own sanctions on Russia after these years, it's difficult to picture them keeping their new commitment of weaning themselves from Putin oil and gas by 2027. Doubtless, when that deadline arrives, there will be yet another renewed vow of celibacy to spurn further relations with the Bear: "Don't worry, we'll finally get it done in 2030."

How is the EU still buying fossil fuels from Russia?: CREA estimates that the volume of Russian gas piped to Europe via Turkey rose by 26.77% in January and February 2025 compared with the same period last year, said the BBC. Hungary and Slovakia, who are sympathetic to Moscow, continue to receive Russian gas.

Russia Fossil Tacker estimates that since the beginning of the war Russia has made €885 billion (£740 billion) globally from its fossil fuel exports, with EU countries buying more than €209 billion of these exports.

Earlier this year Vladyslav Vlasiuk, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, told EU ambassadors to Kyiv that Russian gas exports to the bloc were directly "fuelling Russia's aggression" and it was "time to cut off the petrodollar flow", said Al Jazeera.

[stryder]

Well Trump is discussing peace with Zelensky today, even as overnight Russia attacked sections of Kiev causing wide scale power outages (no heat) and burning buildings. Is it just me or is there something wrong with this picture?

It's circularly wild that Europe is supporting both the Ukrainian and the Russian war efforts at the same time. The first by loaning it billions for defense, and the second via indirectly continuing to purchase its fossil fuel. Since the EU hasn't been able to strictly conform to its own sanctions on Russia after these years, it's difficult to picture them keeping their new commitment of weaning themselves from Putin oil and gas by 2027. Doubtless, when that deadline arrives, there will be yet another renewed vow of celibacy to spurn further relations with the Bear: "Don't worry, we'll finally get it done in 2030."

How is the EU still buying fossil fuels from Russia?: CREA estimates that the volume of Russian gas piped to Europe via Turkey rose by 26.77% in January and February 2025 compared with the same period last year, said the BBC. Hungary and Slovakia, who are sympathetic to Moscow, continue to receive Russian gas.

Russia Fossil Tacker estimates that since the beginning of the war Russia has made €885 billion (£740 billion) globally from its fossil fuel exports, with EU countries buying more than €209 billion of these exports.

Earlier this year Vladyslav Vlasiuk, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, told EU ambassadors to Kyiv that Russian gas exports to the bloc were directly "fuelling Russia's aggression" and it was "time to cut off the petrodollar flow", said Al Jazeera.

When countries make large deals, they tend to do so with Bonds. Bonds that when issued can take 10/20/30 years to be paid back. When they are attached to the purchasing of a raw resource, it would require those bonds to be resold to cover where the repayments would otherwise come from.

That's one of the main reasons why countries that had long term contractual agreements couldn't just ween themselves off the supply. The bonds have to reach maturity to end such deals so as not to take the loss to their economy.

Further to that the contracts issued can be applied for a number of years, where as if a party decided to no longer need the resource, they would be expected to pay an early contract closing fee or continue to pay for goods that would no longer be receiving. (so the contracts persist)

So it's understandable why it's difficult for some countries to wind down from having involvement with the Russians (coupled with their pro-Russian demeanor and the likely thought that peace would have been achieved sooner rather than later.)

[stryder]

Well Trump is discussing peace with Zelensky today, even as overnight Russia attacked sections of Kiev causing wide scale power outages (no heat) and burning buildings. Is it just me or is there something wrong with this picture?

if peace is achieved, I hope Russia isn't expecting the sanctions to suddenly stop, for them to go to G summits or be accepted back as a trustworthy trade partner. Those things shouldn't be achievable for them, otherwise they really have pulled the wool over the US's eyes.

The Russians have reduced their population, removed the criminals to some extent, using warfare to commit a kind of population eugenics to weed out who they don't want, consolidated privately owned companies into nationalised structures. If anything if the sanctions are flipped, they will be in a stronger economic position than ever before.

That of course is only achievable if a certain "Deal Maker" gets played.

[C C]

What we already know: Europe's lack of desire in this century to part with Russian gas and oil is a key part of what incrementally emboldened and funded Putin's ambitions.

What's in the future, if a peace deal is miraculously reached, is a potential return to as much as half of that former dependence on Russian fossil fuel.

Otherwise, from December 2026 to 2027 to 2028, the EU may finally end its addiction, since there are measures instituted to check the ultimate source of where imported fuel originated. Albeit, it's still difficult to picture Hungary, Slovakia, etc -- the small set of countries that have so far refused to heavily mitigate the flow or cut the umbilical cord -- truly obliging those new commitments.

Perhaps the irony is that Europe's hampering of peace deals -- due to dissatisfaction with the stipulations -- prolongs its enhanced goal and vow of spurning Russian gas and oil (that it actually very much craves at least a partial return to).

Key sanctions developments from the UK, EU and US from November 2025
https://www.fieldfisher.com/en/services/...-on-russia
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What a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could mean for Europe’s gas supplies
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/23/what-a-r...plies.html

EXCERPTS: Whether Europe could resume purchases from Russia again is the big question.

“Each of the Nord Streams [pipelines] were 55 million cubic meters. So that one remaining is 27.5 million cubic meters ... and that’s probably the top of what Europe would be prepared to buy from Russia,” Vakulenko said.

He said that if there was a change of government in Russia and Putin was no longer president, Europe would be “quite willing to buy some Russian gas,” but not if the same amounts it was buying before.

“Then Nord Stream would come in handy. But that’s [a] very big ‘IF,’” he added.

“On the one hand, Europe, or at least there are parties [countries] in Europe, who wouldn’t mind having at least some Russian gas in the European energy mix for a number of reasons, to not be too reliant on U.S. supply. Russia is the lowest cost supplier to Europe,” he said. (MORE - missing details)
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Europe locks in endgame for Russian gas and oil
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-lo...00396.html

EXCERPT: . . . Most important of all are the bans on E.U. gas imports from Russia, which long provided huge income for the country and gave it great political leverage over Europe. All liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports will end by 31 December 2026 and pipeline gas will cease by 30 September 2027. For short-term contracts concluded before 17 June 2025, the prohibition on Russian LNG applies from 25 April 2026 and for pipeline gas from 17 June 2026. For long-term LNG contracts concluded before 17 June 2025, the ban applies from 1 January 2027, in line with the 19th sanctions package. Pipeline gas imports under long-term contracts will only be allowed until 30 September 2027.

Strong safeguards against circumvention are included. Provisions to enhance the transparency, monitoring, and traceability of Russian gas within E.U. markets will support the implementation of the import ban. During the transition period, prior authorisation will require detailed information to ensure imports are limited to volumes based on historical contracts. To prevent Russian gas from entering through other countries, importers must provide information on the country of production. These anti-circumvention measures will be run in tandem with the E.U. Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, and the European Anti-Fraud Office. The same procedures will apply to E.U. imports of Russian oil – all of which will end by 2027.

This marks a remarkable turnaround from the situation in the early aftermath of Russia’s 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It was obvious to the U.S. and Great Britain that Moscow’s ability to fight the war over the long term would depend on its ability to finance it, and that a key source of this was revenue from Europe’s imports of gas and oil. Moreover, Washington and London believed that the E.U.’s unwillingness to impose meaningful sanctions on Russia when it invaded independent sovereign country Georgia in 2008 was instrumental in encouraging it to invade Ukraine in 2014 and annex its Crimea region, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. And they believed the E.U.’s failure to act again at this point in any meaningful way against Moscow at that point was instrumental in encouraging the full-blow invasion of Ukraine in 2022... (MORE - missing details)

[Syne]

When countries make large deals, they tend to do so with Bonds.  Bonds that when issued can take 10/20/30 years to be paid back.  When they are attached to the purchasing of a raw resource, it would require those bonds to be resold to cover where the repayments would otherwise come from.

That's one of the main reasons why countries that had long term contractual agreements couldn't just ween themselves off the supply.  The bonds have to reach  maturity to end such deals so as not to take the loss to their economy. 

Further to that the contracts issued can be applied for a number of years, where as if a party decided to no longer need the resource, they would be expected to pay an early contract closing fee or continue to pay for goods that would no longer be receiving.  (so the contracts persist)

So it's understandable why it's difficult for some countries to wind down from having involvement with the Russians (coupled with their pro-Russian demeanor and the likely thought that peace would have been achieved sooner rather than later.)

Yes, several European countries and major energy firms have existing long-term contracts for Russian oil and gas (especially
LNG), but the EU has agreed to a phased ban, phasing out most Russian gas imports by late 2027, allowing firms to invoke force majeure to break contracts legally, despite concerns over potential arbitration and political pushback from countries like Hungary and Slovakia.
- Google AI

Seems it's only Europe putting that 2027 date on the phase out.

if peace is achieved, I hope Russia isn't expecting the sanctions to suddenly stop, for them to go to G summits or be accepted back as a trustworthy trade partner.  Those things shouldn't be achievable for them, otherwise they really have pulled the wool over the US's eyes.

Sure, because Putin will jump at the chance to stop the war funding his economy in exchange for a worse economy. 9_9

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What we already know: Europe's lack of desire in this century to part with Russian gas and oil is a key part of what incrementally emboldened and funded Putin's ambitions.

Yep, yet they are the least willing to make a deal, even so far as to embolden Zelenskyy to refuse deals, while his people continue to die and his country loses territory.

[Yazata]

What we already know: Europe's lack of desire in this century to part with Russian gas and oil is a key part of what incrementally emboldened and funded Putin's ambitions.

I supported the idea of Europe buying Russian natural gas. My idea is that it would tie Russia to the much larger European economy. If Russian prosperity is dependent in some large part on energy sales to Europe, then Russia would be less likely to hurt themselves by endangering that relationship.

What's in the future, if a peace deal is miraculously reached, is a potential return to as much as half of that former dependence on Russian fossil fuel.

Yes, a halt to sanctions would very likely be part of any Ukraine peace deal.

Otherwise, from December 2026 to 2027 to 2028, the EU may finally end its addiction, since there are measures instituted to check the ultimate source of where imported fuel originated. Albeit, it's still difficult to picture Hungary, Slovakia, etc -- the small set of countries that have so far refused to heavily mitigate the flow or cut the umbilical cord -- truly obliging those new commitments.

Some of the Eastern Europeans are heavily dependent on gas imports, much of it from Russia. If the EU somehow forces them to cut it off, what do they propose would be the replacement energy source? Germany can hardly supply its own energy needs, after stupidly shutting down all of their nuclear plants as an emotional reaction to the Fukishima earthquake disaster in Japan. (Angela Merkel was a total disaster for Europe in many ways.) Is the EU going to tell Hungary to freeze in the dark until they assemble tens of thousands of windmills imported from China?

One alternative source of LNG imports to Europe is the United States. As just one example, the US is building a huge LNG export terminal at the Port of Brownsville in Texas. Specifically intended to export LNG to Europe. I believe that Rotterdam and other European ports have the ability to handle it at their end. But does Europe have the pipelines necessary to get it to Hungary and Slovakia to replace Russian gas imports? Are they making any attempts to build what they would need?

Europe locks in endgame for Russian gas and oil
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-lo...00396.html

EXCERPT: [color=#660000]. . . Most important of all are the bans on E.U. gas imports from Russia, which long provided huge income for the country and gave it great political leverage over Europe. All liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports will end by 31 December 2026 and pipeline gas will cease by 30 September 2027.

So the Europeans play the tough-guys in peace negotiations, insisting on the continuation of the war until Ukraine wins a totally improbable and near-impossible victory, militarily defeating much larger Russia. (Whatever that would look like, nobody seems willing to describe what victory would look like or what it would entail.)

Meanwhile, they decline to put their strong sanctions into effect, opting instead to continue importing Russian gas for up to two more years. They are all for wartime sacrifices, but Ukraine's and not their own.

[Yazata]

Yesterday Russia claimed that Ukraine sent a large drone attack against President Putin's residential compound outside Moscow. The Russians insisted that all the drones were intercepted and none got through.

Many observers were skeptical that this personal attack against Putin actually happened, especially given that Ukrainian President Zelensky was in the United States visiting President Trump at the time. Others speculated that rogue elements of the Ukrainian military or security services did it, perhaps aided by rogue CIA or British intelligence operatives.

Well, today another massive Ukrainian drone attack definitely happened, targeting the Moscow power grid. Reports say that large parts of greater Moscow are without power in the freezing winter cold. Reports indicate that about half a million people are without power. The stricken areas don't seem to be in central Moscow so much as large suburbs nearby. Ramenskoye (Pop. 113,000 about 30 miles SE of the center and known for its aircraft industry) and Lytkarino (Pop. 65,000 adjoining the Moscow federal city and known for its optical glass factory) are said to be totally blacked out. The entire Moscow metropolitan area (Moscow federal city and the surrounding administratively separate Moscow oblast) has about 21 million people and is the largest in Europe.

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[Syne]

I wonder how many Russian's you'd have to inconvenience to get them to turn on Putin in any substantial numbers?

[Yazata]

I wonder how many Russian's you'd have to inconvenience to get them to turn on Putin in any substantial numbers?

It's conceivable that there might be more pressure on Putin from within his government and military to accept the kind of deal that Trump is offering him. But I think that it's more likely that the Russians will be thinking about what they can do to retaliate.

The attack on Putin's compound (I have no way of knowing if he was actually there at the time) seems a lot more likely to be true after the attack on Moscow's power grid just a day later.

Trump seemed to have believed it yesterday and I believe that he was not happy at all, particularly when it happened while Zelensky as visiting him. That comes too close to looking to Putin like Trump and Zelensky were plotting together to kill him. Which might arguably have been Zelensky's intention, in hopes of scuttling Trump's peace effort by making Putin back out entirely.