Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

There is lots of excitement in Poland tonight.

Russia is in the midst of conducting a large cruise missile and drone attack on western Ukraine. And apparently several Russian drones have crossed into Polish airspace. (Poland is one of the stronger NATO members.) The Polish air force has an operation underway to "neutralize" the intruders and may have shot some of them down. Residents of three Polish voivodships (provinces) have been advised to shelter in place.

The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command says:

https://x.com/DowOperSZ/status/1965593314716995891

"Attention, during today's attack by the Russian Federation carrying out strikes on targets located in the territory of Ukraine, our airspace was repeatedly violated by drone-type objects.

An operation is underway aimed at identifying and neutralizing the objects. On the orders of the Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces, weapons have been deployed, and services are actively working to locate the downed objects.

We emphasize that the military operation is ongoing, and we urge people to stay at home. The most threatened areas are the Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lubelskie voivodeships.

The Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces is monitoring the current situation, and the forces and resources under its command remain fully prepared for immediate response."

It isn't clear what's really happening, since Russian drones have accidently crossed the border on several occasions in the past, have turned around and flown back into Ukraine. Is today's incursion different in type or scale, or is the Polish government trying to turn it into an 'Attack on NATO' incident in hopes of getting NATO more involved in the Ukraine war?

(Polish air force photo)

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Poland's defense minister says he is in close contact with the NATO high command.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that he's been briefed and that the U.S. is monitoring the situation.

The Polish deputy defense minister says

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Prime minister Donald Tusk says

https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1965600876925764069

"An operation is underway related to multiple violations of Polish airspace. The military used armaments against the objects. I am in constant contact with the President and the Minister of Defense. I received a direct report from the operational commander."

The Chopin International Airport in Warsaw has been closed to civilian air traffic.

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Polish military reservists in eastern Poland have been ordered to be ready to report for action in six hours, those in central Poland to be ready in 12 hours, and those in western Poland need not be ready for immanent call-up.

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Again, I don't know what's really happening, whether it's an actual military threat to Poland or whether Poland is sending a message to Moscow - "Don't mess with us, we are ready to fight you!"

[Yazata]

Things seem to be getting quieter in Poland and Russian incursions are winding down.

The sound of fighter jets can still be heard above towns in eastern Poland.

Here's a map from Ukrainian sources that shows the Russian cruise missile and drone attack, and how some of it failed to stop at the western border. It does look like a larger incursion than anything that's happened in the past.

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[Yazata]

The Polish general staff says

https://x.com/SztabGenWP/status/1965630542310769048

"In the interest of, we appeal to: in case of finding downed drones or their fragments, do not approach, touch, or move them. Such elements may remain dangerous and must be inspected by sapper patrols.

Please report any findings to the emergency number 112 or to the nearest Police unit. This will allow the services to quickly and effectively secure the area."

Chopin International Airport in Warsaw has once again been reopened.

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The Polish PM is currently meeting with security officials to discuss tonight's events. There is a full cabinet meeting scheduled for 8 AM Warsaw time. (It's an all-nighter for them I guess.)

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[Yazata]

The Russian drone incursions into Poland two days ago involved approximately two dozen drones.

And a senior NATO officer is claiming that at least five of them appeared to be targeting a NATO base at Rzeszow Poland, which is responsible for NATO arms shipments into Ukraine.

(I'm skeptical about that, since attacking a NATO base in a NATO country would very likely draw NATO armed forces into active participation in the Ukraine war which would not be in Russia's interest.)

Two of the five were downed by Netherlands air force F-35's which were stationed in Poland to help their ally's defenses, while it isn't clear who downed the other three.

Polish photo of soldiers recovering what appears to be an intact Russian Geran drone. Russia has a large manufacturing plant (the Yelabuga drone factory) building these at a rate of about 6,000/year (approaching 20/day). They are rather low-tech drones (they are originally an Iranian design) but easy to manufacture cheaply in quantity.

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