Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

FWIW……AI* calculates probability of Iran collapse…..

Quote: Scenario Outcomes: Expert analysis (pre-Feb 28) suggested a 40% chance of managed, limited escalation (allowing regime survival), 35% chance of a full-scale war, and 25% chance of regime collapse.

*subject to error

(Mar 2, 2026 06:40 PM)confused2 Wrote: Word on the street is that Iran has zero chance of becoming a democracy. [...]

That was amply illustrated during the Arab Spring. Like Russian or Chinese citizens, they've been cattle for so many centuries that they quickly just vote in or allow another regime that removes the other party options and competitors. They don't know anything else. At least some of the ruling elite in the Middle East are quasi-benevolent, though -- gradually allowing more civil liberties, economic opportunities, etc. (Of course, a similar hypnotic salve applied in Russia and China, to warrant the population eternally supporting and being grateful for the Lord Protectors.)

(Mar 2, 2026 07:42 PM)C C Wrote:

(Mar 2, 2026 06:40 PM)confused2 Wrote: Word on the street is that Iran has zero chance of becoming a democracy. [...]

That was amply illustrated during the Arab Spring. Like Russian or Chinese citizens, they've been cattle for so many centuries that they quickly just vote in or allow another regime that removes the other party options and competitors. They don't know anything else. At least some of the ruling elite in the Middle East are quasi-benevolent, though -- gradually allowing more civil liberties, economic opportunities, etc. (Of course, a similar hypnotic salve applied in Russia and China, to warrant the population eternally supporting and being grateful for the Lord Protectors.)

World Wide Web and flow of information, right or wrong, grass is greener on the other side.

Charlie Chan's pessimistic descendant, having long since lost the ancestor's penchant for counterfeit proverbs and the inability to speak idiomatic English: There you have it, below. The conflict is going to continue for quite a while, and in the end it just sets Iran back a few years till they restore their capacity for mischief again. If you can't kill the tree at the roots, it just grows back. Don't go down the fruitless road of expecting Iranian citizens to have the capacity and will to ever overthrow anything, even when provided with assistance and opportunity from the outside. If that's ever a crucial component of a plan, what you accomplish is just a temporary setback.
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War in the Mideast widens as Trump says strikes on Iran could last several weeks
https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-u...f11c6665fa

INTRO: The war in the Middle East spiraled further Monday as Israel and the United States pounded Iran in a campaign that U.S. President Donald Trump said would likely take several weeks. Tehran and its allies hit back against Israel, Gulf states and targets critical to the world’s energy production.

The intensity of the attacks, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the lack of any apparent exit plan set the stage for a prolonged conflict with far-reaching consequences. Safe havens in the Mideast like Dubai have seen incoming fire; hundreds of thousands of airline passengers are stranded around the globe; oil prices shot up; and U.S. allies pledged to help stop Iranian missiles and drones.

With no sign of the conflict abating anytime soon, Trump said operations are likely to last four to five weeks but that he was prepared “to go far longer than that.”

He said U.S. forces were determined to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities, wipe out its naval capacity, stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon and ensure that Iran cannot continue to support allied groups like Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which fired missiles at Israel, drawing retaliatory airstrikes.

A surviving IRGC general said this morning that "we will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region". Something like 20% of the world's oil comes out of the Persian gulf, so it looks to me like the IRGC is threatening to crash the world's economy and in so doing, increase world pressure against the United States (which, thanks to President Trump, is self-sufficient in energy). China, in particular, purchases most of Iran's oil exports, despite sanctions on Iran. But Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE are major exporters to countries like Japan and South Korea.

In less than three days, the United States has destroyed most of Iran's larger deep water naval vessels. Which reduces the naval threat to the Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group out in the Arabian sea. But the IRGC still has lots of armed speedboats which are still a threat to Persian Gulf oil tankers, particularly in the constricted Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian air force has largely been wiped out. But huge numbers of rockets and attack drones still remain, which continue to rain down on the Gulf Arabs. Reducing their numbers and destroying the factories that manufacture them might take weeks.

And there's the nuclear threat. That's most dangerous from the American (and Israeli) perspective and it probably needs to be our top priority. While it's possible to slow it down, like was done last summer, eliminating it entirely will be very hard. It might require American special-forces boots on the ground at some of the nuclear sites to make sure the underground enrichment centrifuges are completely destroyed and to gather all the intelligence that we can.

If, as is rumored, the Iranians have enough weapons grade enriched uranium for 10-15 Hiroshima sized atomic bombs, that will have to be located and removed. If they have actually constructed bombs, then given their apocalyptic theology and their cult of martyrdom, then things might get very dicey. Iran smuggling a nuclear bomb into Tel Aviv, New York City, Washington DC or Los Angeles is the nightmare scenario.

(Mar 2, 2026 06:40 PM)confused2 Wrote: Word on the street is that Iran has zero chance of becoming a democracy. So keep killing people until you find one prepared to accept your terms. Art of the Deal chapter 13.

Trump's plan is not nation-building (in our image). It is giving them a chance to be self-determined, whatever form that may take. If they quickly pick up the oppression yoke again, that's on them. But hopefully, it ends up a more peaceful option for the region and the world. That's the only real goal.

Trump isn't repeated the past mistakes of trying to fit a Western democracy peg into a culturally indifferent hole.

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(Mar 2, 2026 08:51 PM)C C Wrote: INTRO: The war in the Middle East spiraled further Monday as Israel and the United States pounded Iran in a campaign that U.S. President Donald Trump said would likely take several weeks. Tehran and its allies hit back against Israel, Gulf states and targets critical to the world’s energy production.

The intensity of the attacks, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the lack of any apparent exit plan set the stage for a prolonged conflict with far-reaching consequences. Safe havens in the Mideast like Dubai have seen incoming fire; hundreds of thousands of airline passengers are stranded around the globe; oil prices shot up; and U.S. allies pledged to help stop Iranian missiles and drones.

With no sign of the conflict abating anytime soon, Trump said operations are likely to last four to five weeks but that he was prepared “to go far longer than that.”

He said U.S. forces were determined to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities, wipe out its naval capacity, stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon and ensure that Iran cannot continue to support allied groups like Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which fired missiles at Israel, drawing retaliatory airstrikes.

And? Who said this operation was only going to take a few days? As long as it's strikes from relative safety for our troops, it's not a traditional, drawn out war, where we expect significant casualties on our side.

Funny how he says there no exit plan, but then he literally outlines the goals. No occupation, no nation-building, etc.. Those goals are it. Once they're complete, we leave.

(Mar 3, 2026 12:22 AM)Magical Realist Wrote:

You're such a piece of shit. Does it feel good to crow about children possibly dying just to score political points?

I would rather crow about children being murdered than distracting from it just to defend my "dear leader".

(Mar 3, 2026 12:25 AM)Syne Wrote: You're such a piece of shit. Does it feel good to crow about children possibly dying just to score political points?

You (Syne) probably think he's lucky he lives in a free country - actually it's the other way round. Mindless zombies following the leader is what destroys free countries.