Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

The thing CC posted from the Atlantic was actually pretty good, except for right at the end: "With Trump everything is a transaction". (Isn't transaction the whole point with negotiations? If it's meant to suggest that Trump has no core principles, then it's just false.)

But in my opinion, the Atlantic opinion piece seemed to describe the Israel/US/Hamas dynamic pretty well, along with how Trump's special envoy shook things up.

Trump had already told Hamas that if the hostages weren't released by January 20, "all hell will break out, and it will not be good for Hamas". And knowing his fondness for Israel, I think that they believed him.

And like the Atlantic suggested, Trump has considerable leverage with Israel too. I expect that he assured Netanyahu that if Hamas fucks with Israel again, we've got your back this time. And Netanyahu believed him.

I still want to hear the details though.

Hamas seems to think that Israel was agreeing to pull out of the Philadelphi Corridor, the short border between Egypt and Gaza, which would enable weapons smuggling to resume and Hamas' rearming to take place.

But Israel has indicated that they have no intention of giving up control of the Egypt-Gaza border.

Preparations for the ceasefire are underway as columns of Israeli military vehicles exit Gaza city, back across the Israeli border.

News reports say that the Israelis will exit the Philadelphi corridor in several stages. That raises obvious concerns about the resumption of arms smuggling from Egypt. But Israel pretty clearly has extensive intelligence in Gaza and would know about any Hamas military resurgence almost as soon as it happens. That would justify the Israelis ignoring the ceasefire and going back in to finish the war, with American blessing from the Trump administration this time.

That might be why Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire. Israel has little to lose if it goes bad, and quite a bit to gain if it holds and Hamas doesn't make a comeback. It will reduce the strain on the Israeli army at the very least.

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Apparently Israeli PM Netanyahu gave a nationwide TV address today and said that contrary to media reports, Israel will not be withdrawing from the Philadelphi corridor and instead will be increasing its presence there.

So it still isn't entirely clear what is happening.

Today the US President announced that Ansar Allah, the organization ruling the Yemeni Houthis, will once again be designated a terrorist group. They were during Trump's first term, but Biden inexplicably removed them from the list. (What's not to like? They only shoot at any ship trying to transit the Red Sea.)

Hopefully Egypt, Quatar and the UAE will work out something between them, such as perhaps building an artificial island near the size of Gaza off the coast of Gaza. It could be build up to house Palestinians and wouldn't have tunnels under it (as it would likely cause a sinkhole) That would leave the Gaza strip itself to be more agrarian making it less hostile to the Israeli border.

It would mean that such an island however would be "Palestine" since it would be purposely made in the Mediterranean and not landbridged to the mainland. Israel would hold no claim to it.

That being said it would have to built under the assumption that Hamas would no longer be controlling Gaza.

If you build it, they will come, huh?
Wouldn't that just be like Alcatraz island?

Remember, Gazans voted for Hamas.

The Gaza ceasefire has broken down and the Israeli air force is bombing Gaza pretty heavily as I write this. Reportedly, the Israelis consulted with the US before their jets were dispatched, and the US had no objections. (Unlike the Biden administration which almost certainly would have.) The Israelis say that they are targeting where they believe Hamas' Gaza leadership is hiding. Whether they got the leaders probably depends on how good their intelligence is (and Israeli intelligence is very good). At the moment, it's unknown whether the Israeli army will go back into the parts of Gaza that they pulled back from as part of the ceasefire deal.

Simultaneously, the Yemeni Houthis have started firing at passing ships again. And the American USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier battle group has begun heavy airstrikes against military and economic targets in all parts of Houthi Yemen. The airstrikes appear to be continuing around the clock. The Houthis have tried to strike the Truman battle group with missiles and drones, without any success.

In news that may or may not be related, two US aircraft carrier battle groups have departed Norfolk VA in the last few days. The USS Gerald Ford CSG left on Friday and the USS George HW Bush CSG left on Sunday. In addition the USS Iwo Jima amphibious group left Norfolk last Wednesday. That's a lot of ship movements in a short period of time, leading to lots of speculation on the internet that something is up.

It might just be for exercises in the Atlantic. But if it's for something more than that, it seems like overkill for the Houthis. So there's speculation that the US and Israel might be planning to take out Iran's nuclear weapons program. It must be emphasized that's just very unconfirmed speculation at this point.

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The Navy replied to inquiries saying that the George HW Bush CSG and the Gerald Ford CSG are both headed to the Composite Training Unit Exercise (COMPTUEX) in the Atlantic.

Photo from Gaza

nsNS

The Houthi foreign minister has told Reuters that the Houthis will not dial down their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, despite what they say are appeals from Iran to cool it.

(The Iranian IRGC arm the Houthis and provide them technical crews to operate their missiles, so it's unlikely that the Houthis could launch their attacks without Iranian consent. Iran likes to fight its battles through proxies while they claim pristine innocence, and after the loss of their ally Syria and the Israeli destruction of Hamas and crippling of Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Iraqi Shi'ite militias are about all that Iran has left.)

The Houthi foreign minister says that the Houthis are at war with the United States and that "escalation is likely". He went on to say "Now all scenarios are possible", before warning other Arab states that assist the US in striking the Houthis. (The Gulf Arabs owe their tremendous wealth to oil exports and the Houthis closing the Red Sea/Suez canal route to Europe hurts them.)

THe Houthi FM and a USN photo of a US destoyer firing a missile in the Red Sea.

nsNS

I don't know if this post belongs here or in the 'Weird' forum. It's MR stuff.

Residents of the southwestern Lebanon city of Tyre report a strange orange light to the west on the Mediterranean.

Could be a ship (US or Israeli? Doing what?). Some people suggest that there are offshore natural gas platforms out there (is that true?) and one may be on fire.... Or it's aliens...

(Mar 21, 2025 04:05 AM)Yazata Wrote: Some people suggest that there are offshore natural gas platforms out there (is that true?) and one may be on fire....

Apparently there are indeed off-shore gas platforms out there and gas drilling platforms sometimes flare gas.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/lebanon-st...tion-well/

https://images.csmonitor.com/csmarchives..._900x600nc

The USS Carl Vinson CSG (Carrier Strike Group) which is currently off South Korea conducting exercises with the South Korean air force, has just been ordered to make its way around Malaysia and Singapore, and across the Indian ocean to the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the USS Harry Truman CSG which is in the Red Sea bombing the Houthis, has had its deployment extended.

And rumors are swirling that when it completes its participation in the COMPTUEX exercise in the Atlantic, the USS Gerald Ford CSG will head to the Middle East too.

On the face of it, that would put three US aircraft carrier battle groups in the Middle East at once, which would be extraordinary. Although I expect that one of the new arrivals will probably relieve the Truman CSG to return home, leaving two carriers.

Nevertheless, some kind of buildup might be happening that bears watching.