Russian Ukraine Invasion

(Mar 12, 2022 03:45 AM)Secular Sanity Wrote:

(Mar 12, 2022 03:21 AM)Magical Realist Wrote: Right out of their playbook. Thankfully western news media keeps us informed regarding the real events of the war with on site video and reports.

It's messed up, but we did the same thing in Afghanistan.

Putin is a liar and a murderous tyrant. Why are you trying to justify what he is doing?

(Mar 12, 2022 07:41 PM)Magical Realist Wrote:

(Mar 12, 2022 03:45 AM)Secular Sanity Wrote:

(Mar 12, 2022 03:21 AM)Magical Realist Wrote: Right out of their playbook. Thankfully western news media keeps us informed regarding the real events of the war with on site video and reports.

It's messed up, but we did the same thing in Afghanistan.

Putin is a liar and a murderous tyrant. Why are you trying to justify what he is doing?

Even though there's a meme circulating in the right-wing community that Democratic Socialists (AOC, Bernie) are blaming the Ukraine invasion on the US, it's actually some Trumpers themselves (mix of independents & conservatives) that are primarily or ironically doing it. Also some of the religious community: https://www.scivillage.com/thread-11860-...l#pid49558

I believe that SS is arriving at this independently of such activity (and probably agrees with you above about Putin), but the risk still ensues of being construed as belonging to those movements or being cherry-picking slash conspiracy prodded by the same underlying anti-Biden and anti-progressive motivations.

The right is really a confusing mess right now, what with one branch condemning Putin and another defending or even praising him. Maybe it's some kind of weird surrogacy syndrome along the line of "missing Trump being in office so Putin is the next best active substitute".

(Mar 12, 2022 08:01 PM)C C Wrote:

(Mar 12, 2022 07:41 PM)Magical Realist Wrote:

(Mar 12, 2022 03:45 AM)Secular Sanity Wrote:

(Mar 12, 2022 03:21 AM)Magical Realist Wrote: Right out of their playbook. Thankfully western news media keeps us informed regarding the real events of the war with on site video and reports.

It's messed up, but we did the same thing in Afghanistan.

Putin is a liar and a murderous tyrant. Why are you trying to justify what he is doing?

Even though there's a meme circulating in the right-wing community that Democratic Socialists (AOC, Bernie) are blaming the Ukraine invasion on the US, it's actually some Trumpers themselves (mix of independents & conservatives) that are primarily or ironically doing it. Also some of the religious community: https://www.scivillage.com/thread-11860-...l#pid49558

I believe that SS is arriving at this independently of such activity (and probably agrees with you above about Putin), but the risk still ensues of being construed as belonging to those movements or being cherry-picking slash conspiracy prodded by the same underlying anti-Biden and anti-progressive motivations.

The right is really a confusing mess right now, what with one branch condemning Putin and another defending or even praising him. Maybe it's some kind of surrogacy syndrome along the line of "missing Trump being in office so Putin is the next best active substitute".

Lenin nailed it. "Useful idiots"..

(Mar 12, 2022 08:01 PM)C C Wrote: I believe that SS is arriving at this independently of such activity (and probably agrees with you above about Putin), but the risk still ensues of being construed as belonging to those movements or being cherry-picking slash conspiracy prodded by the same underlying anti-Biden and anti-progressive motivations.

The right is really a confusing mess right now, what with one branch condemning Putin and another defending or even praising him. Maybe it's some kind of weird surrogacy syndrome along the line of "missing Trump being in office so Putin is the next best active substitute".

Exactly! Thanks, C C!

Two wrongs don’t make a right, but we did it and it adds to the Western hypocrisy that Putin is touting.

C C is correct. I don’t listen to Fox News or Tucker Carlson. I’m getting my information from universities, government documents, the Wilson Center, etc. I don’t know too much about foreign policy, but I am pretty good with research in finding the proper channels for legit information.

Whenever you’re researching any topic of debate, you must look at each side’s perspective. Putin’s "whataboutism"(American hypocrisy) isn’t blatant propaganda. There’s some truth in most of his complaints. 

Russia's and China's policies have been shaped not only by our current intentions and capabilities, but also by their historical views of us over the past two centuries. We must take all of this into account, which I’m sure we are at an intellectual advisory level, but we’re not at a social media level, that's for sure.

Russian and Chinese Historical Perspectives of the United States

Russian studies have consisted of improving socialism by incorporating the positives associated with capitalism and rejecting the negative aspects of capitalism.

After the humiliation during the Gorbachev and Yeltsin era, the concept of the unreliability of westerners as allies was widely spread and displaced a mutual dialog and understanding.

"As in the nineteenth century, according to Maxim Kovalevsky’s complaint, the state (today it is Putin’s nationalist autocracy) again dominates Russian interpretations of US history and politics. And post-Soviet Americanists like Nikonov still call on Russian politicians to "resist by all available means" "the America threat." Unfortunately, Russian historians today forget what Nikolai Bolkhovitinov emphasized in 1968 during the Cold War."

"We do not intend to present an idolized picture and create an impression that no disagreement or antagonism exist between the Russian and America. The lesson of Russian American relations consists not in the absence of differences and conflicts but in fact that history testifies to the possibility of overcoming them. Not with the help of weapons but peacefully by means of negotiation."

China and Russia have had ongoing border disputes throughout history.

"The Sino-Soviet border conflict was a seven-month undeclared military conflict between the Soviet Union and China in 1969.

"In the 21st century, the Chinese Communist Party's version of the conflict, which is present on many official websites, describes the events of March 1969 as a Soviet aggression against China"

Their last dispute was peacefully resolved through negotiations in 2008.

"On 21 July 2008, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and his Russian counterpart, Lavrov, signed an additional Sino-Russian Border Line Agreement, marking the acceptance of the demarcation of the eastern portion of the Chinese-Russian border in Beijing, China. An additional protocol with a map affiliated on the eastern part of the borders both countries share was signed. The agreement also includes the Chinese gain of ownership of Yinlong / Tarabarov Island and half of Heixiazi / Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island."

This corresponds with what China has been presenting at the UN regarding complex border issues. I can see how our strategies, such as those presented by Jamie Shea, need to include destroying Putin’s reputation, e.g., by calling this "Putin’s War" instead of the "Russian Invasion of Ukraine", but the longer this war goes on, the less chance we have at coming up with peaceful solutions. Our inability to provide Ukraine with military defense is not going playout well for us in the long haul. As a New York Times opinion piece pointed out, this may be Putin’s war, but America and NATO aren’t just innocent bystanders.

Putins rhetoric is Strawman at best. He'll even change the goal posts through propaganda to get what he wants, his moaning about NATO (A non-aggressive defence pact) is just one of those points to create spin and keep people from seeing the actual objective.

I mean how many times does he have to be told it's a Non-aggressive defence pact? Of course he'd throw another strawman and ignore the actual point but thats what Putin does.

The main problem is he's surrounded by sycophantic Yes men. No government can achieve balance unless there is opposition. Opposition is healthy in the sense that it allows alternative view points to be heard and decisions to take into consideration those view points. Having it all just one sided leads to the worst kinds of extremism and the worst kinds of mistakes. (In governance and strategy)

In fact I'd assume Hitler worked that out when he put a bullet through his own skull. History unfortunately repeats.

(Mar 12, 2022 10:20 PM)stryder Wrote: Putins rhetoric is Strawman at best.  He'll even change the goal posts through propaganda to get what he wants, his moaning about NATO (A non-aggressive defence pact) is just one of those points to create spin and keep people from seeing the actual objective. 

I mean how many times does he have to be told it's a Non-aggressive defence pact?  Of course he'd throw another strawman and ignore the actual point but thats what Putin does.

The main problem is he's surrounded by sycophantic Yes men.  No government can achieve balance unless there is opposition.  Opposition is healthy in the sense that it allows alternative view points to be heard and decisions to take into consideration those view points.  Having it all just one sided leads to the worst kinds of extremism and the worst kinds of mistakes.  (In governance and strategy)

In fact I'd assume Hitler worked that out when he put a bullet through his own skull.  History unfortunately repeats.

^^This.

Making war is one thing, making peace is another. Nobody has clean hands - it might even be more difficult if someone did. My friend's assessment as one set of bastards v. another set of bastards seems pretty fair and a good starting point. How are we (all, Russia included) going to end this mess? When Ukraine is reduced to rubble are we going to say "If you do that again we'll.." we''ll what?

(Mar 12, 2022 10:52 PM)confused2 Wrote: Making war is one thing, making peace is another. Nobody has clean hands - it might even be more difficult if someone did. My friend's assessment as one set of bastards v. another set of bastards seems pretty fair and a good starting point. How are we (all, Russia included) going to end this mess? When Ukraine is reduced to rubble are we going to say "If you do that again we'll.." we''ll what?

From the Russian perspective, we can’t turn back the clock on domestic politics. He’s in for life and we’re caged off. Our poo-flinging political prowess will be virtually ineffective.

According to the historians, he needed the tension with NATO to hold onto the power and foster nationalistic support. He now has that support. By underestimating the threat, we’ve supplied with him plenty of friction and now we’re pushing him in a direction where he’ll be forced to test the alliance. He needs China. Without China, he’s toast. If we accepted China’s offer to help with the negotiations, there are several ways to drive a wedge between their newly formed "strategic partnership," but we’d have to come to the table with honesty, dependability and rationale.

So, yeah…my self-soothing technique isn’t really working. The more I learn, the more it makes me think that WWIII might be inevitable. 

If the (possibly rather crispy) hard drive we live on (thanks Stryder) is dug up in a thousand years I hope "poo-flinging political prowess" will make them smile. We might be primitive but at least we (sometimes) show signs of self-awareness.

Day 17 Summary

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...7-summary/

There hasn't been much change on the map. The Russians still seem to be preparing to attack Kyiv. But it isn't clear whether they intend to enter the city or surround it and try to starve it out. There are still open road and rail links between Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine and people continue to flee. The population of 3 million is dropping towards 1 million as most of the people have left and headed towards Poland. The Ukraine government is still in Kyiv, but if they are smart they will be preparing a succession plan with designated successors, continuity plans for military command etc. in Lviv or someplace like that in case the current leadership is put out of communication, killed or captured.

Most of the fighting yesterday was around two adjoining northwestern Kyiv suburbs, Bucha (which is contested and fighting is occurring) and Irpin which the Russians have tried to enter but the Ukrainians pretty much repelled them. A US journalist is reported killed near Irpin where he blundered into Russian soldiers that fired on his approaching car. Both Bucha and Irpin have already had their civilian populations evacuated from the fighting.

Shelling is audible in the distance in Kyiv but is directed at targets around the outskirts and not at the city itself. The Russians are currently about 10 miles from the center. The Ukrainians continue to prepare for street fighting in the city, which will be defended street by street. The Russians may try to roll tanks into Kyiv, but tanks are vulnerable to antitank weapons when boxed into city streets. So it will likely be an infantry battle, building to building.

There is still electricity in Kyiv. I don't know how food distribution is going.

There are many Russian armored columns on the roads east of Kyiv but they aren't strong enough to assault the city. They seem mostly employed at the moment cutting road and rail links. These columns present an attractive target for air attack, but the Ukrainian air force lacks the capacity to do it. They are making good use of drones though, many of them Turkish made.

The one direction out of Kyiv still free of Russians is to the south.

The strong Ukrainian defensive position at Chernihiv northeast of Kyiv continues to block a major Russian advance but is in danger of being surrounded and its situation is increasingly desperate.

In Kharkiv (Ukraine's second city) the Russians continue to shell the center from the northern industrial outskirts, but haven't advanced. There are armored columns on the rural roads in the area.

In far eastern Ukraine, the Russians have taken almost all of Luhansk oblast (province) but in neighboring Donetsk oblast haven't attacked the large Ukrainian army force that was there before the war to face off against the Separatists. The plan seems to be to encircle them and cut them off from the rest of Ukraine.

In the south, the latest Russian assault on Mykolaiv came to nothing. The Russians were repelled but continue shelling, particularly in the airport area.

In Mariupol, the Russians are inside the outskirts of town but the Ukrainians continue to hold out in the center. The city has been without food or clean drinking water for a week.

And Russian airforce and cruise missile attacks have increased in the far west, where the Russians are apparently hitting routes through which supplies like anti-tank rockets are arriving from Poland and nato. (But no Migs.)