Earth Quake statistics & Locations

[RainbowUnicorn]

well... that appeared to be the case
i am noticing some larger than normal medium quakes about the boundary points over the last week or soo.
i am thinking this is general movement of the forces of over all movement/presure so nothing indicating anything potentially larger.
though. i expect there is likelt  be continued movement through indonesia and philopines.
if they are lucky generaly around 5.0 between 35 to 10kms deep sporadic for another 2 weeks as it quiets down.
if there is indication of deep general movement around top 4's to 5s or 6s deep around 100km plus then i would expect something similar t what theyhave had in the last 2 weeks in roughly 3 weeks maybe out to 6 weeks or soo.
hopefully if it is larger it will be pread out over several locations at smaller numbers.

given the large quake in papua a while back it would not be surprising to have that agrivated.
i expect we might see some larger continued activity in hawaii because of this obvious movement.
though i expect hawii is settled into a routine and i would not be surprised if its current level of activity remains for many many months.
appologies for typos just finished a 14 hour day on the end of a 75 hour week

[RainbowUnicorn]

So...
This is what im looking at
USGS site
https://tinyurl.com/yckgrq8u
notice the 2 in papua fit my model of expectation
The deep one in fiji region is what i would consider positive pressure.
though it is a little after the 5.1 which was more shallow.
so i am inclined to beleive it is less likely to be adding pressure than maybe equalling pressure.


hopefully the 2 in papua are the old large quake from a year or soo back having after shocks triggered
if not we will likely find out in a week, somewhere in toward indonesia on the same latitude roughly or on an off shoot fault line.


my guess is its just releasing on old faults thus rate as potential after shocks rather than new. which equates to settling down rather than building up.

itwill be interesting to see if i am correct. im 50/50 on the 2 close together in papua though, they almost fit the model too perfectly which makes mea little nervous, BUT i think the magnitude of the second is not large enough to fit the model.
so im going with 70% chance it wont be anything bigger(by bigger i mean a release triggering something around a 7)
possibly around a 6.0 toward indonesia, probably around 10 to 20 kms deep maybe 30 and statisticaly unlikely to hit any population centres.
thus of no real consequence

[RainbowUnicorn]

This looks quite lucky, too close together in timing and too shallow to indicate something deeper is my guess.

i would perceive this as something like a uppers 7's being expressed in 2 x 6's

if the second quake was several hours, say 5 to 12 hours maybe inside 24 hours apart i think it would more likely indicate a bigger pressure.


M 6.0 - 263km SE of Iwo Jima, Japan
III
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER
Time 2018-08-16 18:21:29 (UTC)
Location 23.337°N 143.393°E
Depth 1.8 km

M 6.4 - 252km SE of Iwo Jima, Japan
IV
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER
Time 2018-08-16 18:22:52 (UTC)
Location 23.441°N 143.341°E
Depth 11.5 km

this is where any further pressure might go in my rough guess if there is residual energy
USGS map

just a bit of a guess. if anything then maybe a few 5.0 sizes roughly between 20 to 5 kms deep so nothing that would effect anything dramatically.

note

M 6.6 - 50km S of Tanaga Volcano, Alaska
VI
DYFI?VI
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER

[Image: tsunami.jpg]

Time 2018-08-15 21:56:54 (UTC)
Location 51.435°N 178.054°W
Depth 20.0 km

with what looks like an after shock of
M 5.2 - 60km S of Tanaga Volcano, Alaska

[Image: tsunami.jpg]

Time 2018-08-17 04:35:29 (UTC)
Location 51.337°N 178.177°W
Depth 24.6 km

direction of plate movement is towards the left hand side into the corner(very generally speaking)

maybe 5 days time as a rough guess for the movement pressure to effect that corner, maybe a little longer.
hopefully nothing bigger than a 6 absolute top end and hopefully not more shallow than 10 to 15 kms
i would be cautious about being on that coast line for the next 2 weeks 
i think its all uninhabited anyway.

this coastline area would be where i would expect to be a risk for roughly 2 weeks
around here USGSmap

just noticed this (im a bit tiired sorry and appologies for typos)

this is a bit interesting

M 6.4 - 84km SW of Kaktovik, Alaska
V
DYFI?VII
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER

[Image: tsunami.jpg]

Time 2018-08-12 14:58:54 (UTC)
Location 69.624°N 145.247°W
Depth 9.9 km


USGS MAP

[Yazata]

Large magnitude 8.2 earthquake in the ocean about midway between Fiji and Tonga.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...#executive

Due to its remote location it wasn't strongly felt in Fiji and it's apparently too deep to create a tsunami.

https://www.tsunami.gov/

[RainbowUnicorn]

this is quite interesting.
LOTS of much larger than normal activity.
i am not soo concerned with the shallow stuff as much as the really deep stuff indicates potential upward coming energy release potential.

thought i better add this one as it is large-ish and a plate boundary and large-ish like others all in the last 2 weeks. they seem to have been getting bigger over the last 2 to 3 week.
to me it appears to be unusualy larger than normal activity of many 6.0 and above and 1 6.9 or soo in the artic which seemed unusual.(i think i noted that above)

this is the latest one alone the top northern edge of the pacific plate

M 6.3 - 45km SSE of Tanaga Volcano, Alaska
VI
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER

[Image: tsunami.jpg]

Time 2018-08-23 03:35:15 (UTC)
Location 51.511°N 177.881°W
Depth 43.9 km



only a few hours ago, this one will have likely been felt on the cost line

just north and out to see on the top left diagonal end off the edge of the San_Andreas_Fault out to see by about 200kms  there is a good chance the people o the coast woudl have felt a wee wobble
more likely if they are in bed as people feel them a lot more when they are in bed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault

M 6.2 - 265km WNW of Bandon, Oregon
IV
DYFI?IV
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER

[Image: tsunami.jpg]

Time2018-08-22 09:31:47 (UTC)
Location 43.645°N 127.603°W
Depth 10.0 km

M 6.5 - 79km E of Lakatoro, Vanuatu
VI
DYFI?VII
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER

[Image: tsunami.jpg]

Time 2018-08-21 22:32:27 (UTC)
Location 16.017°S 168.153°E
Depth 13.4 km



M 7.3 - 30km NE of Rio Caribe, Venezuela
VII
DYFI?VII
ShakeMapYELLOW
PAGER

[Image: tsunami.jpg]

Time2018-08-21 21:31:46 (UTC)
Location 10.855°N 62.883°W
Depth 154.3 km

M 6.1 - 14km N of Golfito, Costa Rica
VII
DYFI?VI
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER
Time 2018-08-17 23:22:24 (UTC)
Location 8.769°N 83.153°W
Depth 15.0 km

probably a good time for Hawaii and the us pacific coast to have some test drills for tsnumai sirens and practice.
practice drills saves lifes.

am i expecting something bigger or in a populated area etc... (what am i thinking)
dont know, its all speculation really. i thought the 8.2 would be the top end but seeing the then 7 and then the 2 or 3 other 6+ i feel that potentially the active period is continuing.
i am going to ponder that with basic stats and guessing
with many larger maybe there isa chance it might place more pressure on the areas where there is usually no real movement. so i wonder if there might be some small 5 to 6 maybe lower end 5's in a few places that usually have nothing bigger than a 2 or rarely 3.
who knows. its all a bit ofa guessing game or probability and forces we cant measure or predict accurate processes.

[RainbowUnicorn]

Deep Large movement continues

M 7.1 - 138km WNW of Iberia, Peru
III
ShakeMapGREEN
PAGER
Time 2018-08-24 09:04:06 (UTC)
Location 11.042°S 70.817°W
Depth 609.5 km

not being a plate boundary i expect this is a release of pressure, but because it is soo deep. i dont know.
Given the depth i am guessing not many people felt it.
pesermism = this places more pressure on the plate boundary that runs up the south american coast line
optimism = this is releasing pressure and too deep to effect anything closer to the surface.

general feeling = a little angsty for the plate boundary along the south american coast line
guessing on a statistical probability wild speculation
= maybe a couple of 6.0's inside the top 50 kms

[RainbowUnicorn]

i am curious that there is no after shocks yet from this 7.1 at 609 kms deep.

[RainbowUnicorn]

not very big compared to upper 6's & 7.o and up..
but as i was wondering about.
6.0 ish... in places that usualy dont get them so things will not be settled or built to stand mild to serious quakes.

M 6.0 - 26km SW of Javanrud, Iran
VI
DYFI?VII
ShakeMapYELLOW
PAGER
Time 2018-08-25 22:13:26 (UTC)
Location 34.663°N 46.277°E
Depth 10.0 km

why i was expecting this type ?
because of the very very deep very big movement which seems very very unusual.
i would guess this means such pressures would also flow through other plates to weak points/faults etc putting new pressure on infrequant fault lines.

cnn news link to iran 6.0 quake rated as 5.9 / 2 people killed 100s injured

[Yazata]

Devastating earthquakes and tsunami in the Indonesian island of Sulawesi.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...nesia.html

Apparently there was a mag 6.1 earthquake followed by a local tsunami warning which expired. Then there was a bigger mag 7.5 earthquake that forced water into a town of Pegu's narrow bay, generating a 10 foot tsunami. It tore into the town, destroying buildings and killing more than 800 people.

That death toll will almost certainly go up, since there are a couple of smaller fishing villages still cut off along the coast.

Video of it hitting here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy8yS2mUEpA

[RainbowUnicorn]

Devastating earthquakes and tsunami in the Indonesian island of Sulawesi.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...nesia.html

Apparently there was a mag 6.1 earthquake followed by a local tsunami warning which expired. Then there was a bigger mag 7.5 earthquake that forced water into a town of Pegu's narrow bay, generating a 10 foot tsunami. It tore into the town, destroying buildings and killing more than 800 people.

That death toll will almost certainly go up, since there are a couple of smaller fishing villages still cut off along the coast.

Video of it hitting here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy8yS2mUEpA

6.1 is nothing for that region. considering the massive amount of constant deep large movement the 7.5 is much more in alignment.


the warning thing is probably a difficult thing to gauge as they probably do not have official monitoring or an official system that sounds sirens etc.


from watching the cell phone video itt appears the major structural damage was done by the second wave coming in loaded with debris from the first.

i think i recal something about the second wave being the big one also in tsunamis and often having others behind them.

indonesia has a 300,000 active army
75,000 active navy


a lot of their buildings are probably from the 1950s

in low income high population countrys the infastructure is never replaced.
the usa is a shining example of that in its worst possible example of greed.(exploding gas pipe lines blowing up entire urban communities for the last few years)

on one hand cash n carry turn over/ semi agrarian culture advancement and no social welfare systems of large funding to build towns & citys etc...
on the other the cost & technology of something like a proper tsunami warning system installed in the indonesian plate zone.

matched with wide spread locations on different islands, the cost to access small pockets of the people is extremely high.

in asia tsunamis have the worst possible effect on the population centres and in the basic ecconomic process where most of the money is made.
having a look at the simple reality of best investment, a proper modernised tsunami warning system deployed and managed by the government would be logical.

developing technalogical miniaturisation and its cost efectivenes in todays modern ecconomy makes it a real possibility.

note as a general vague guess on a statistical level
looking at the size and number of after shocks, i think they got away with what might have been something more above the 8.0 scale.
8.2 to 8.4


... i think the 7.5 was more like a 8.3 which released as a 7.5 and then after shocks releasing the rest of the energy.