Large Caribbean Hurricane

[Yazata]

Hurricane Matthew, a strong category 4, has hit the southwest peninsula of Haiti west of Les Cayes with winds near the eye as strong as 140 mph. I expect damage in Haiti to be extensive, given the shoddy construction of buildings there. The thing should pass over the eastern end of Cuba, then the Bahamas seem to be right in the bulls-eye of most of the model tracks.

The newest models of possible storm tracks have it veering closer to the US than earlier models. Some have it cruising up the length of Florida, others have it moving up the Florida coast over Cape Canaveral (get your rockets inside!), and others have it coming ashore in the Carolinas. Florida and North Carolina have already declared emergencies, and Georgia and South Carolina probably will soon.

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[Leigha]

I reside in its projected path. 

[Yazata]

I reside in its projected path. 

Now I'm worried. I hope your house, family, neighbors and town come through it undamaged. Stay in touch with us as long as you have internet.

[Leigha]

I reside in its projected path. 

Now I'm worried. I hope your house, family, neighbors and town come through it undamaged. Stay in touch with us as long as you have internet.

Aw, you are kind, Yazata. It's sunny here atm.   Hopefully, all will be well and maybe the storm will veer off into an entirely different direction ...away from land!

[Yazata]

Hopefully, all will be well and maybe the storm will veer off into an entirely different direction ...away from land!

The projections are changing by the hour. Here's the latest one's I've seen. More tracks seem to be making a right turn and heading east over the Atlantic. One makes a U'ie and circles back to Florida. But most of the tracks seem to keep it right off-shore up the coast, except for the outer banks of N.C.

That will protect inland areas from heavy rainfall and might keep the strongest winds offshore, but storm surge will likely still be a problem along many hundreds of miles of coast. They probably need to evacuate those low-lying sand-bar islands. I'm certainly not a hurricane expert (I live in California!) but I fear that it still might get nasty.

Unfortunately, the storm tracks seem to be focusing on Nassau. Doesn't look like the Bahamas will be so lucky. I hope that if the US dodges a bullet, that we loan them some Coast Guard helicopters or something to distribute relief supplies to their outlying islands, they might need it.

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[Leigha]

Not raining at all here, but I've heard reports that there might be a lot of rain later. We'll see.

[Yazata]

It's currently in the southern Bahamas, north of the east end of Cuba.

Here's the National Hurricane Center's 3-day cone:

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It looks like the east coast of Florida is going to be in trouble all day Friday.

Here's something interesting (and a little alarming) - NOAA's prototype (it's apparently not ready for prime time yet) storm surge predictions in an interactive computer format. It looks like the areas most at risk from storm surge are the low-lying Georgia sea islands and up into SC. Many of those areas are already tidal wetlands, but there are resorts and condos near the sea too. Things might get interesting near Savannah. Cape Canaveral looks like it might get 1-3 feet of surge.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...n#contents

It looks to my layman's eye like some of the worst surge might be a ways up the coastal rivers, if I'm interpreting this thing right. Presumably the hurricane forces water into the river mouths making the rivers come out of their banks further up.

[Leigha]

Flooding is always one of the chief concerns in these types of situations. Where I live, it's pretty clear, but I'm not on the eastern coast line.