Hurricane Melissa

[Yazata]

This is a very strong, very slow moving hurricane. It doesn't appear to present any danger to to the United States, but it looks like it might linger over Jamaica at major hurricane strength for three days!

What's more, it's intensifying very rapidly, currently at Cat.3 but expected to be as strong as Cat.5 in a matter of hours!

The US National Hurricane Center says: "A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall is expected to begin tonight, causing catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding annd numerous landslides. Extensive infrastructural damage, long duration communication and power outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities is likely. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely... All preparations should be completed today."

NOAA predicts that some mountain locations in Jamaica might see as much as 40 inches of rain!! The capital of Kingston might see something like 20 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected in western Haiti as well, and perhaps as far as the Dominican Republic. Then Melissa is expected to hit eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas before heading out into the Atlantic.

I have a very bad feeling about this. Many people are going to die in the next few days.

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National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
23m

11pm EDT 10/25: Major Hurricane #Melissa Key Messages: Melissa is now a Category 3 hurricane and is expected to continue rapidly intensifying. Residents of #Jamaica should seek shelter now and stay inside for the next several days as damaging winds and heavy rain have begun, and will continue to get worse Sunday, Monday & into Tuesday. See http://hurricanes.gov for more info, including impacts in #Haiti, #Cuba, and #DominicanRepublic. The #Bahamas and #TurksandCaicos should monitor the progress of Melissa.

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https://x.com/LaurenDreyer/status/1981781719864029607

Lauren Dreyer, the VP of Starlink business operations at SpaceX says that the Starlink team is in close contact with emergency preparedness officials in Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

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[Magical Realist]

Sweet Melissa! My sister and her hubbie are flying to Key West on Sunday for pleasure. They always seem to time their trips when a hurricane is nearby. lol

[Yazata]

Currently Category 4 and expected to max out at Category 5 before landfall.

They are currently experiencing tropical storm conditions in southeastern Jamaica. Off and on rain, at times heavy. The ground is already saturated.

Very heavy surf already happening.

Wind is moderate so far. That will change, US hurricane hunter aircraft have clocked 145 mph sustained wind near the eyewall, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles from the eye. (For a 60 mile hurricane force diameter, and this thing is expected to travel directly across the middle of Jamaica.) There's likely to be a path of devastation right across the island, where many buildings aren't constructed very well.

This might turn out to be the worst hurricane to hit Jamaica in its recorded history.

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[Yazata]

Melissa is Category 5 and continues to intensify. USAF C-130 aircraft have clocked sustained wind speed near the eyewall at 175 mph. Reportedly gusts were clocked at up to 241 mph! If true, that would arguably be the highest windspeed ever observed in a hurricane! Few buildings can withstand that. You would need a concrete bunker. Luckily that's right by the eyewall and doesn't extend out very far.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft had to turn back this morning because it was too intense.

Melissa is still moving west very slowly, about 3 mph. It is expected to turn northeast later this afternoon. But the further west it goes, the further west in Jamaica it will hit.

Conditions ln the capital of Kingston are still comparatively mild. Tropical storm level, but only minor wind damage and no flooding (yet).

Gopro video from the eye of Melissa taken by a crewman on the US Air Force C-130 that penetrated in there this morning.

https://x.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1982911146266075605

Photo inside the eye by Tropical Cowboy of Danger (the Air Force crewman)

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[Yazata]

Melissa is tracking west of the forecast storm track

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[Zinjanthropos]

Melissa is tracking west of the forecast storm track

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Don’t know how the aliens did it but they managed to get their UAP right smack in the eye.

Anyways, a friend of mine has been building a house for last two years that’s taking a direct hit. He’s a good builder but I don’t think hurricane ties are going to save him.

[Yazata]

Another photo by Tropical Cowboy of Danger. Truly extraordinary! These might be the best photographs inside the eye of a major hurricane ever taken. We will see them on the pages of meteorology textbooks for decades to come.

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[Yazata]

Melissa is coming ashore towards the west end of Jamaica as I write this.

Nobody remembers the National Hurricane Center ever writing anything quite like this:

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https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1983173551319654668

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The eyewall appears to have come ashore near the small town of Black River, population about 4,000. It's the capital of St Elizabeth parish (what Jamaica calls counties).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_River%2C_Jamaica

Black River might no longer exist.

Update - Melissa appears to have come ashore to the west of Black River, so it might have escaped the worst winds right by the eyewall. Video from out of Black River shows it's still there despite very intense winds.

[C C]

^ ^ ^ ^ ^
With 185 MPH winds, it is arguably equivalent to an EF4 tornado that is 700 miles in diameter. Even with a mile-wide tornado, you can at least drive quickly away out of its reach (even if the town itself can't).

[Yazata]

Report that more than 30% of Jamaican electicity customers are without power.