Sep 24, 2024 03:35 PM
https://theconversation.com/experts-pred...rms-238824
EXCERPT: . . . With the moist monsoon air reaching further north than usual, easterly waves are emerging into the ocean via Mauritania or Western Sahara rather than Senegal or the Gambia. There, the ocean is cooler, and, as the waves rotate, they bring in cooler, drier air from the north, so there is not as much energy for waves to turn into storms.
Effectively, if these waves are the seeds of major storms then they have been planted in the wrong soil: unable to receive the warmth and moisture they need to develop into hurricanes.
Other factors have also been at play, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a global pattern of stormy weather which moves eastward around the globe. Over the past few months, the oscillation has been in a phase which does not favour tropical cyclone development. The upper atmosphere has also been too warm for storms to form, and the winds there are stronger than usual, causing some potential tropical cyclones to collapse.
State-of-the-art climate models suggest that in a warming climate, the west African monsoon may become wetter and shift further northwards, potentially resulting in similarly quiet hurricane seasons in future. However, future projections of rainfall in Africa can be somewhat uncertain, and more research could be essential not only to forecast extreme weather in the region itself, but also to understand changes downstream.
However, things may soon be back to normal as the monsoon retreats southward and the sea surface keeps heating up (ocean temperatures typically peak in October), providing the necessary moisture and heat. While the typical season for easterly waves is nearing its end, storms could continue to form from disturbances in the Caribbean... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPT: . . . With the moist monsoon air reaching further north than usual, easterly waves are emerging into the ocean via Mauritania or Western Sahara rather than Senegal or the Gambia. There, the ocean is cooler, and, as the waves rotate, they bring in cooler, drier air from the north, so there is not as much energy for waves to turn into storms.
Effectively, if these waves are the seeds of major storms then they have been planted in the wrong soil: unable to receive the warmth and moisture they need to develop into hurricanes.
Other factors have also been at play, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a global pattern of stormy weather which moves eastward around the globe. Over the past few months, the oscillation has been in a phase which does not favour tropical cyclone development. The upper atmosphere has also been too warm for storms to form, and the winds there are stronger than usual, causing some potential tropical cyclones to collapse.
State-of-the-art climate models suggest that in a warming climate, the west African monsoon may become wetter and shift further northwards, potentially resulting in similarly quiet hurricane seasons in future. However, future projections of rainfall in Africa can be somewhat uncertain, and more research could be essential not only to forecast extreme weather in the region itself, but also to understand changes downstream.
However, things may soon be back to normal as the monsoon retreats southward and the sea surface keeps heating up (ocean temperatures typically peak in October), providing the necessary moisture and heat. While the typical season for easterly waves is nearing its end, storms could continue to form from disturbances in the Caribbean... (MORE - missing details)
