7 hours ago
(This post was last modified: 7 hours ago by C C.)
SUMMARY: If Trump had gotten out of this conflict within the six weeks max as originally claimed, he would have just been viewed as an arrogant azzo who messed up traffic through the Strait and then aloofly left. But by hanging around to fix it he's now going to be deemed both that and the loser who ultimately facilitated Iran's formally recognized, official control over the passage. (When this dawdling, ineffectual strategy and its forces finally pull out due to exhaustion of resources and the unpopularity of the war -- whether with or without an agreement.)
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Iran thinks the US will let it keep the Strait of Hormuz
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-s...b0aa1c5c3f
EXCERPTS: They are betting that military pressure will ultimately force the United States to accept their control over the crucial waterway for global energy — and that time is on their side.
They know about the diminishing stockpiles of key U.S. weapons such as advanced missile interceptors. They know the war is deeply unpopular with Americans. They know that as long as the strait is largely closed, the price of gas and other goods will stay high ahead of U.S. congressional elections in November. They know that trying to open it by force would be costly and may require American ground troops. They know their Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the war and disrupt another major trade route.
By that logic, U.S. President Donald Trump has no choice but to capitulate.
[...] Iran says it is close to reaching a deal with Oman to manage the strait, which runs between the countries. But on Saturday, Tehran said the strait will not open until the U.S. “corrects its behavior,” saying it must permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and withdraw its military from the area. It also must “completely compensate” Iran for war damage, lift sanctions and “unconditionally” release frozen assets.
There was no White House comment. A deal with Oman would formalize Tehran’s control over what had been an open international waterway before the war, one that carried a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas.
[...] Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who once advised former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said Iran’s effective control of the strait has given it leverage with the U.S. and regional countries that can help guarantee its security.
“More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait,” he said by phone from Tehran. Formal control over even part of the strait would be a clear win for Iran and a loss for the U.S., which has yet to accomplish some of its various and shifting goals in the war.
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Iran thinks the US will let it keep the Strait of Hormuz
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-s...b0aa1c5c3f
EXCERPTS: They are betting that military pressure will ultimately force the United States to accept their control over the crucial waterway for global energy — and that time is on their side.
They know about the diminishing stockpiles of key U.S. weapons such as advanced missile interceptors. They know the war is deeply unpopular with Americans. They know that as long as the strait is largely closed, the price of gas and other goods will stay high ahead of U.S. congressional elections in November. They know that trying to open it by force would be costly and may require American ground troops. They know their Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the war and disrupt another major trade route.
By that logic, U.S. President Donald Trump has no choice but to capitulate.
[...] Iran says it is close to reaching a deal with Oman to manage the strait, which runs between the countries. But on Saturday, Tehran said the strait will not open until the U.S. “corrects its behavior,” saying it must permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and withdraw its military from the area. It also must “completely compensate” Iran for war damage, lift sanctions and “unconditionally” release frozen assets.
There was no White House comment. A deal with Oman would formalize Tehran’s control over what had been an open international waterway before the war, one that carried a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas.
[...] Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who once advised former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said Iran’s effective control of the strait has given it leverage with the U.S. and regional countries that can help guarantee its security.
“More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait,” he said by phone from Tehran. Formal control over even part of the strait would be a clear win for Iran and a loss for the U.S., which has yet to accomplish some of its various and shifting goals in the war.
