Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

I'm getting really tired of this back and forth where Iran supposedly wants to deal, and then announces that its nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable.

My impression is that President Trump really doesn't want to attack Iran by wrecking the electrical grid and internal road and rail communications, such that it causes the Iranian people severe hardship. He knows that the democrats would just accuse him of war crimes, the same way they have turned on Israel.

But I also think that President Trump is tired of feeling like he's being played by the Iranians. Whenever he hints at a more kinetic military campaign, they tell him that they are ready to deal and an agreement is just days away. So Trump calls off the strikes and the Iranians back away... and the whole thing just repeats over and over. (The Iranians watch US politics and hope the democrats gain some power in the midterm elections, so the IRGC wants to hold out till then.)

A complicating factor is countries like Qatar and Turkey, who want the US to make a deal. So they add to the chorus of "we're close, we're close". And that influences Trump, since he hopes to be the great peacemaker of the Middle East and really wants to keep them on board, so he feels that he needs to listen to them.

[Syne]

The vacillating is starting to make me wonder who, with inside knowledge, is profiting from the market response. I really hope that is not involved.

I'm still hoping that Trump's plan is to make sure, one way or another, that the US economy booms near enough to the midterms that no one has time to forget or start to think it's the baseline norm.

If it's just about a deal, Trump needs to realize that there is no deal with the regime/IRGC. They believe that one day Islam will rule the entire world, so they definitely have the patience to delay or agree to whatever while they wait for the next pussy Democrat to take office. Trump has already made every effort to prove that he wants a diplomatic off-ramp. Now it's time to prove to the IRGC that they have no future.

If we can do it with minimal risk, ideally that means taking control of Kharg island, so we don't have to destroy any infrastructure. If not, I'm sure the Iranian people are willing to lose bridges, power plants, and oil refining/shipping facilities until they can be rebuilt by a free Iran.

[Yazata]

Shehbaz Sharif (Prime Minister of Pakistan) says:

[Image: HKoKI8zWwAA-iHD?format=jpg&name=small]

I remain doubtful. I worry that the United States is being played by those who want to drag things out for as long as possible, by suggesting that they are ready to agree to things that they have no real intention of agreeing to.

Even if Pezeshkian (Iranian President) and Araghchi (Iranian Foreign Minister) are sincere, I'm not convinced that they are really the ones making decisions in Iran. The real rulers are Ahmad Vahidi and the hard-line leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps who are the source of Iran's maximalist demands.

[Syne]

Yeah, I don't trust Pakistan (China cutout) nor any Iranian political class, as I agree, they have not demonstrated any power within Iran.
You cannot expect any real deal from people who have lied so frequently and so long.

I'd hate to see Trump have a Neville Chamberlain moment.

[Yazata]

President Trump says:

[Image: HKzgGVBWUAAhQ_z?format=png&name=small]

Shehbaz Sharif says:

[Image: HKzdaK8WYAAgmV-?format=png&name=small]

[C C]

President Trump says:

I hearby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HKzgGVBWUAAh...name=small

Shehbaz Sharif says:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HKzdaK8WYAAg...name=small

We'll see if the Strait opens, if it's truly a "believe in miracles" moment. Definitely needs to happen right now -- in addition to restarting whatever applicable oil wells (which can take months) -- to have a remote chance of curbing a major quickening of inflation before the midterms. Never underestimate what the wafting odor of Dems acquiring the capacity for a third impeachment can inspire in terms of diplomatic accomplishment.

Just keep Bibi restrained until then. Don't float any more futile "assassinate the heads of the regime" opportunities by him or be tempted by any that he in turn proposes. Leave the "League of Assassins" stuff to the comic book pros.

[Yazata]

Iran has a rather different spin and is trying to portray the agreement as an historic Iranian victory:

[Image: HKzmz3TW4AAGIw-?format=jpg&name=small]

[Image: HKzn8wMW8AAva9r?format=jpg&name=small]

While the actual terms of the agreement haven't been released, I get the impression is that the lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports is conditional on Iran no longer interfering with transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is continuing to claim sovereignty over the Strait while the US and our Gulf allies strongly disagree. The agreement seems to be that Iran can say whatever it wants and nobody else has to believe it, as long as Iran doesn't interfere with rights of movement through the Strait.

The Iranians demand the lifting of sanctions and the freeing of frozen Iranian assets overseas. And the US is apparently making that conditional on Iran cooperating on the nuclear issue, ceasing their funding of terrorist proxies etc.

And the Iranian demand that US military forces leave the region seems to have gone nowhere.

---

---

---

As for me, I don't expect Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions willingly. I expect that the "60-day negotiations" will go nowhere, certainly not towards a verifiable on-site destruction of the program. But the US certainly has spy satellites and human agents able to tell us when/if Iran tries to dig out and restart their uranium enrichment program. Should that happen, the military option remains on the table. We know that Israel will be keeping a close eye on things as well.

What does Iran get:

1. Their regime survived.

2. They retain some regional power based on the thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles that they retain.

3. Their ties to their foreign proxies remain in some form.

4. They keep their nuclear weapons program, at least notionally.

So they can save face, claim victory and boast that all their goals were met.

What we get:

1. Iran has been tremendously weakened as a conventional military power. They no longer have a functioning air force or navy. They can't control their own air space.

2. While they retain lots of drones and short range missiles, their ability to manufacture more has been severely limited and their recently fast-growing domestic arms industry is largely in ruins.

3. Their nuclear weapons program is more of a dream than a reality as long as they have no uranium enrichment ability.

4. Their ability to arm and fund their proxies is greatly limited.

5. The Strait of Hormuz is opening and the threat to the world economy is receding. Iran's attempt to declare itself an economic superpower in control of the world's energy supply has been defeated.

6. The US alliance with the Gulf Arabs - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain - has been forged under fire, broadened and deepened. Much the same can be said about Jordan and Lebanon.

So the US too can boast of victory and of achieving its objectives. And only at the cost of 13 US military fatalities.

[Syne]

"... immediate and permanent terminations of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon" sounds like a rip cord out of any agreement for the regime. They need only tell Hezbollah to attack Israel (denying that it's anything more than a rogue agent) and then any retaliation makes the entire agreement null and void.

I'm starting to think hitting 80 might be the slipping point. It's sounding more and more like just kicking the can down the road... since even loosening sanction on Iranian oil exports will fund their rebuild, without any demonstrable change in their goals.

[Magical Realist]

Wow..been out of town for two weeks with no news and the orange clown is still threatening to bomb Iran. What happened to the deal that they were almost ready to complete? Oh wait. They're meeting in Switzerland now as opposed to Pakistan. Must be official this time! lol

[Syne]

Seems more and more likely that it's an issue with JD Vance (who was against the Iran strikes from the beginning) leading the negotiations.