Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Magical Realist]

Looks like Iran is in for the long-haul..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFT2m-ccQQ8

[Syne]

What's more, Iran fired what are reported to have been two intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) at Diego Garcia, home of a US base and (supposedly) UK territory (though they have been doing everything they can to get rid of it). Both Iranian missiles missed the island. This is the first report of Iran making use of an IRBM, though it was known that they were working on them. The significance is that possession of IRBMs puts most of Europe (including Paris and Berlin) in range of Iranian missiles. (Just imagine if they had nuclear warheads for them).

The regime had been lying about having IRBM capabilities. This should prove they had ambitions beyond being an immediate regional threat.

[Yazata]

If you've seen photographs of cities in Iran, especially at night, they are brightly lit up and their electricity is clearly on.

Well, President Trump says

[Image: HD-PkotbcAAEEig?format=jpg&name=small]

The Iranian central headquarters responds

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[Yazata]

Here's what some people more knowledgeable than me think the US will end up doing...

https://x.com/MCCCANM/status/2035592536191086865

"Ok, here’s what you need to know about “Bombing Electrical Facilities”…

Several countries, to include the U.S., use “Graphite Bombs”. These aren’t bombs in the sense you are thinking; they have a small explosive charge, but don’t destroy something by brute force.

Instead, long graphite filaments are expelled. They extend across power lines & create a short-circuit. Either some form of protection cuts power to the line, or the line eventually fails. The graphite is vaporized in the process, leaving nothing behind.

The effect is that the power goes out. These are sometimes called “Soft Bombs” & “Blackout Bombs”.

We’ve used these before. They were used in Desert Storm, but unfortunately we used actual bombs later & did a lot of damage that couldn’t be repaired quickly. This is considered a mistake…the point is to disrupt electricity in a way it can be rapidly restored when hostilities cease, minimizing suffering of the civilian population. After all, without electricity, water & sewer systems stop working…which leads to public health issues.

We used graphite bombs in Yugoslavia in 1999, turning off about 70% of the country’s electricity. They restored power in about 24 hours, though there were subsequent attacks.

Anyway, if you have a good idea of the power grid, you can target parts of it while leaving others alone. For example, the part of the grid that feeds military facilities…though in practice, it will still probably affect some non-military stuff, unless the base is isolated.

Hope that helps, seems like it’s going to be a topic of discussion."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphite_bomb

[Yazata]

The Iranians are trolling Trump!

"Hey Trump! You are fired! You are familiar with this sentence. Thank you for your attention to this matter. The Central Headquarters of Khatam-al Anbiya"

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2035892487860924495

I have to admit, that made me smile.

[Yazata]

Photos of the naval base at Bandar Anzali on the Caspian sea, smuggled out of Iran.

They appear to confirm that the ancient former Shah's imperial yacht Hamzeh (built in the Netherlands in 1936 and once one of the world's most luxurious yachts) subsequently turned into a warship after the Islamic revolution, along with at least one Iranian-made Sina-class fast attack craft were totally destroyed.

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A blowup of the photo above showing a dead Sina-class

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[Magical Realist]

You'd think for someone so experienced in telling lies that Trump would do it better by now. He doesn't. Every new lie exposes his same profound level of stupidity and ignorance about the fact-checking capabilities of every media source nowadays.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/865042989915366

[Yazata]

According to Bloomberg, citing "sources with knowledge of the matter", Saudi Arabia is ready to join the US and Israel in launching air strikes on Iran, if Iran follows through on its threats to attack Saudi energy and water-desalinization infrastructure.

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A number of US Army units seem to be on the move. 35 C-17 cargo flights have left bases in the United States in the last few days, with eleven more flights apparently preparing to leave.

Origins:
12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA
8-Unknown
7-JB Lewis-McChord, WA
6-Pope Army Air Field/Fort Bragg, NC
4-Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY
4-Gray Army Airfield/JB Lewis-McChord, WA
4-Naval Air Station Oceana, VA
1-MacDill AFB, FL
1-JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, NJ

Destinations:
17-Ovda Air Base, Israel
13-King Faisal Air Base, Jordan
4-King Hussein Int'l Airport, Jordan

[Yazata]

As American ground forces (Army and Marines) gather to do... something, Iran may or may not (finally) want to make a deal. It's complicated though...

The Iranian government is in chaos. Some of them (the moderates) want to deal. Others (the IRGC and the hard-liners) believe that they are fighting a holy war and say no deal. So even if some Iranians agree to a deal, it's unclear if they could convince the hard-liners to accept it.

Reportedly the Americans have been talking indirectly with the Iranians through Turkish, Egyptian and Pakistani intermediaries. The Iranian on the other end of the game of telephone is said to be the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Except that Ghalibaf put out a statement that it's all fake news and he wouldn't negotiate with Iran's enemies. Which may or may not be true, since he might be killed by the hard liners if they thought that he was. It's unclear what kind of support Ghalibaf has inside Iran.

But talk is that they were on the verge of setting up face-to-face negotiations in Pakistan for later this week. Iran has supposedly agreed to no nuclear weapons and to a five-year halt on their ballistic missile program. The problem is that they have made similar concessions before, but the small-print always allowed them to continue developing their uranium enrichment capabilities. The devil's in the verification and enforcement details.

[Syne]

Iran has supposedly agreed to no nuclear weapons and to a five-year halt on their ballistic missile program.

Those are what the Trump admin are proposing.

I don't think they should ever be allowed to develop missiles ever again.