Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Syne]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/80H3NaXiuRo

[Magical Realist]

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[Syne]

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[Yazata]

Here's what is probably the first battle loss suffered by the US Space Force. The Iranians seem to have struck an American USSF AN/FPS-132 phased array guided missile defense radar operating at Al Udeid air base in Qatar. The large phased array antenna was struck but there are no human casualties. This is a major high-tech radar for detecting incoming missiles in space, able to see missiles thousands of miles away as they come over the curvature of the Earth.

These radars cost ~$1 billion and it would be a major loss if this one is totalled. The severity of the damage is unknown at the moment.

Satellite photo from Planet labs

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Here's a photo of a similar installation in far northern Canada positioned to watch for incoming ICBMs coming over the north pole. There are similar radars in Alaska, in Northern California, in New England and in England.

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[Yazata]

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[Magical Realist]

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[Syne]

The first time Iran gets a nuclear weapon, or even a dirty bomb, it would become an immediate threat to the US. But I guess moron leftists would rather wait and see that happen before acting to protect Americans. Remember, Iran materially aided 9/11.

[Magical Realist]

I've never heard of a nation bombing another nation just because something MIGHT happen in the future. That it isn't a threat now but may possibly be one one day. Sounds like a very flimsy excuse to bury innocent human beings under concrete rubble and rebar. Who then could ever be exempt from being bombed?

"Nuclear proliferation experts are sounding the alarm. Nuclear catastrophe is now CLOSER because Trump chose bombs over a deal Iran had already agreed to, according to experts.

Just one day before the strikes began, Oman's foreign minister announced that Iran had agreed to downgrade its enriched uranium stockpile and submit to full international verification.

Diplomacy was working. The UN Secretary-General said the military operation "squandered an opportunity" for a negotiated resolution.

Instead, Trump chose bombs. The operation killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, leveled military sites across multiple cities, and explicitly aimed at regime change, something no American president has ever openly pursued against Iran through direct military force.

Now for the part nobody in the White House wants to discuss. The IAEA confirmed it has no indication that nuclear installations were destroyed in the strikes, and Iran's deep underground enrichment facilities at Isfahan and Natanz survived previous bombing runs.

Iran kicked out UN inspectors after those earlier attacks, meaning the international watchdog can no longer verify the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, enough material for over ten warheads.

One scholar at the Middlebury Institute warned that a surviving, vengeful Iran will likely reach the same conclusion North Korea did: in a world where the US bombs you mid-negotiation, going nuclear is the only rational move.

Brookings analysts noted that the regime's deeply embedded networks won't simply disappear, and a destabilized Iran creates terrifying scenarios around unsecured nuclear material.

Russia called the strikes an unprovoked act of aggression. China called them brazen. Trump is posting victory laps on Truth Social.

This isn't strength. It's the most reckless foreign policy gamble since Iraq, launched by the same people who learned nothing from it."

[Yazata]

The big news today is that Iraqi Kurd military forces (allied with the US) have crossed the border into Iran. There's also indications that the CIA has been coordinating with Iranian Kurds and (reportedly, it's unconfirmed) supplying them with weapons. Given the weakened state of the Iranian military at the moment, expect a Kurdish insurgency inside Iran, probably facilitated by American air support.

The Iranians have replied by attacking the Iraqi electrical grid. There are indications of an extensive (nationwide?) power blackout in Iraq.

And there are reports that Azerbijan (which is supported by Turkey) has canceled all leaves for its military, placed them on alert, and are moving them towards the Iranian border. Given the Kurdish incursion, my speculation is that Azerbijan might be hoping to grab the ethnic Azerbijani areas in northwest Iran, perhaps including the major city of Tabriz.

There's already a small insurgency in southeast Iran promoted by Pakistan.

I'm getting the impression that some of Iran's neighbors might be salivating at the thought of carving it up. But most of Iran is populated by ethnic Persians so these kind of ethnic minority based incursions will probably only be effective in a few border areas.

[Syne]

I've never heard of a nation bombing another nation just because something MIGHT happen in the future. That it isn't a threat now but may possibly be one one day. Sounds like a very flimsy excuse to bury innocent human beings under concrete rubble and rebar. Who then could ever be exempt from being bombed?

Iran was building deeper bunkers for uranium enrichment. If they achieved weapons grade enrichment that we couldn't bomb, Iran would have become a new nuclear power.... that funds the most global terrorism. IOW, the window to stop them was closing, and the repercussions of not stopping them was murderous barbarians with nuclear weapons.

Again, sounds like you would prefer us deal with that instead. Very short-term thinking.

"Nuclear proliferation experts are sounding the alarm. Nuclear catastrophe is now CLOSER because Trump chose bombs over a deal Iran had already agreed to, according to experts.

That's either ignorance or an outright lie.
1) Iran had no need for nuclear electricity generation, as it's such an oil-rich country.
2) The Iran nuclear deal had no means of independent inspections to ensure they weren't trying to make nuclear weapons.
3) In the latest negotiations, Iran made it clear that they would not give up enrichment beyond power-generation. We even offered to supply them with the fuel for nuclear power plants, and they refused.

IOW, this is the only way we stop nuclear proliferation.

Just one day before the strikes began, Oman's foreign minister announced that Iran had agreed to downgrade its enriched uranium stockpile and submit to full international verification.

Diplomacy was working. The UN Secretary-General said the military operation "squandered an opportunity" for a negotiated resolution.

No, Iran has regularly lied as a delay tactic, especially while they are rebuilding more secure enrichment facilities. The UN are worthless pussies who, like you, would have just talked until Iran was the next North Korea, a hostile nuclear power we could no longer afford to take on directly.

Instead, Trump chose bombs. The operation killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, leveled military sites across multiple cities, and explicitly aimed at regime change, something no American president has ever openly pursued against Iran through direct military force.

Because the 12-Day War weakened them enough to make it viable and the window for such action, before they acquired nuclear weapons, was quickly closing.

Now for the part nobody in the White House wants to discuss. The IAEA confirmed it has no indication that nuclear installations were destroyed in the strikes, and Iran's deep underground enrichment facilities at Isfahan and Natanz survived previous bombing runs.

Iran kicked out UN inspectors after those earlier attacks, meaning the international watchdog can no longer verify the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, enough material for over ten warheads.

As if the UN inspectors had prior full access. They didn't.

One scholar at the Middlebury Institute warned that a surviving, vengeful Iran will likely reach the same conclusion North Korea did: in a world where the US bombs you mid-negotiation, going nuclear is the only rational move.

They were already trying to do that.

Brookings analysts noted that the regime's deeply embedded networks won't simply disappear, and a destabilized Iran creates terrifying scenarios around unsecured nuclear material.

Russia called the strikes an unprovoked act of aggression. China called them brazen. Trump is posting victory laps on Truth Social.

The left loves to ally with the most evil regimes in the world... even while demanding the US attack Russia, an existing nuclear power.

This isn't strength. It's the most reckless foreign policy gamble since Iraq, launched by the same people who learned nothing from it."

Again, there is no occupation or nation-building going to happen here. Morons claiming that and "forever wars" less than a week in are fearmongering political opportunists.