Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Syne]

Saudi has already said they want to joint the US-Israeli offensive.

[Yazata]

CENTCOM has reported the first US battle casualties: three killed and five seriously wounded. Reportedly they all served with the US Army Sustainment Command and were deployed in Kuwait.

Saudi has already said they want to joint the US-Israeli offensive.

The Gulf Arabs have been trying to have things both ways. While prior to the commencement of fighting they refused publicly to join the US/Israeli attacks on Iran or allow US forces to attack Iran from their bases, privately they lobbied strongly for the US to act and actually helped us plan the attacks. Now that the war seems to be going very well for the US and Israel, and now that Iran has attacked all of them far more heavily and destructively than expected, they are all coming off the fence and talking about joining the anti-Iran offensive alongside the US and Israel. All of them have modern potent Western-equipped air forces.

Britain has behaved very similarly, trying to straddle the fence. The United Kingdom initially refused to allow the US to launch attacks on Iran from British bases, while simultaneously serving as the largest staging area in Europe for American combat assets. Now that the war is going well, Keir Starmer says that the US is free to launch airstrikes on Iran from British bases. What's more, Britain is said to be considering the RAF joining airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone launching sites.

But not all of the Euros are as cooperative. As of Saturday, there were 26 American aerial refueling tankers in Spain, at Moron and Rota, supporting the movement of US air assets across the Atlantic. Now today, Sunday, 11 of these tankers have suddenly left Spain, headed for Britain or elsewhere in Europe. Two are preparing to depart and it's unknown what the other 13 are doing, though they are probably leaving as well. Speculation is strong that Spain has kicked them out.

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The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle has been on routine deployment in the north Atlantic, but it's just received orders to move to the eastern Mediterranean due to the ongoing war with Iran.

Edit - The French are now denying that the Charles de Gaulle has been reassigned to the Mediterranean.

[Yazata]

Hezbollah in Lebanon has entered the war and is firing rockets at Israel. And the Israeli air force is replying by hitting Hezbollah targets all over southern Lebanon. Airstrikes were particularly intense in the Shi'ite majority Dahieh suburb in south Beirut where Hezbollah's headquarters is located.

Israeli airstrikes in Dahieh

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And RAF Akrotiri, the British air base in Cyprus, appears to have come under attack, though it's unclear by whom. A drone was detected incoming and British personnel were instructed to take cover. The drone impacted but no injuries and only minor damage were reported. Given how far Cyprus is from Iran, and given that Hezbollah has just entered the war, speculation is that the drone, determined to be an Iranian made Shahed 136, came from nearby Lebanon. As I write this, there are three RAF Eurofighter Typhoons up flying combat air patrols east of Akrotiri against drone attack.

From the Cyprus Mail

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[Magical Realist]

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[Syne]

^Ignorant moron.

[Yazata]

Heavy missile and drone attacks are taking place Monday morning local time against Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

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In Bahrain, NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) which is designed to map forest/brush fires around the world, indicates extensive fires burning at the 5th Fleet Naval Support Activity in Manama, the capital of Bahrain. I should note that all the area in the red squares isn't necessarily on fire. Those are pixels and the satellite is saying that it detects fire within that area. Luckily this Navy facility was largely evacuated before the war and all of the warships formerly there have already left. But the fires are definitely extensive. Video shows huge plumes of black smoke, probably burning fuel storage tanks.

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And word has just came in that a US F-15E was shot down today, over Kuwait, in an apparent friendly fire incident. Both the pilot and the weapons systems officer ejected and were recovered safely by the Kuwaitis.

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[Yazata]

Israeli air strikes on the southern Shi'ite suburbs of Beirut

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Translation of an Arabic message that Israel sent to residents of southern Lebanon

#URGENT ‼️
URGENT #call to residents of #Lebanon in the villages:

Sarafand, Al-Ma'roub, Saida (Tyre), Debbane, Bavliyeh, Barish, Aarsoun, Qallouya, Al-Shihabiya (Tayr Zibin), Dardghaya, Boustane, Arab Salim, Hosh al-Rafei'a, Yahmar (Western Bekaa), Meidoun, Dlefee, Ain Qana, Kniseh, Al-Mansouri (Tyre), Majdel Zoun, Mazra'at Byout al-Siyad, Jabal al-Butem, Zebqine, Al-Samouqiya, Aytit, Qana, Al-Bayada (Tyre), Deir Amess, Aita al-Jabal (Al-Zutt), Hanine (Bint Jbeil), Haris, Hddatha, Mahrouna, Beit Lif, Yatar (Bint Jbeil), Shakra, Hula, Braashit, Bint Jbeil, Jmeijmeh, Aytaroun, Safad al-Batikh, Al-Bazouriyeh, Ainatha, Hanawiya, Jnaita, Burj al-Shamali, Marakeh, Seddiqine, Al-Majadel, Wadi Jilo, Drouis (Baalbek), Meis al-Jabal.

Hezbollah activities force the Defense Army to act against it; the Israeli Defense Forces do not wish to harm you.

For your safety, you must immediately evacuate your homes and stay away from the villages by at least 1,000 meters to open areas.

Anyone present near Hezbollah elements, their facilities, and combat means endangers their life.

Keep yourselves and your loved ones safe

Reportedly there are traffic jams all over southern Lebanon.

[C C]

It's clear what Iran's strategy is. Trump is blaming Starmer for the delay in granting US permission for using British bases for defensive purposes of taking out Iranian missiles, drones, etc. Failure to shut down Iran's capacity to do mischief around the GCC region will extend the conflict and its global effects indefinitely. Pretty much forget about its regime collapsing, it seems to have already tentatively replaced what it lost -- theory that it's pre-designed to grow new tentacles when they're cut off.
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Fossil fuel crisis
https://apnews.com/live/iran-us-israel-h...03-02-2026

EXCERPTS: A bomb-carrying drone boat struck a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman on Monday, killing one mariner on board, Oman said. Iran has been threatening vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz and is believed to have launched multiple attacks.

Earlier, Saudi Aramco temporarily shut down its Ras Tanura oil refinery near Dammam after it was targeted by Iranian drones. Iran’s decision to target the Saudi refinery further expands the war, directly targeting the lifeblood of the kingdom’s economy.

[...] European natural gas futures are spiking 42% in the wake of the shutdown of a major supplier of ship-born gas. The jump came after QatarEnergy said Monday it would stop its production of liquefied natural gas as the Mideast war rages. The state-owned firm blamed the war for the decision...

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5 charts show China’s oil dilemma after US strikes
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/02...s-00806415

EXCERPTS: Over the span of two months, the Trump administration has removed the leaders of two countries that both shared China as their most important crude oil customer. [...] Almost all of Iran’s exported oil, and more than half of Venezuela’s, went last year to China...

[...] The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Saturday said it was “highly concerned” by the attacks on Iran [...] The squeeze on China’s energy supply also comes just weeks before Trump is slated to hold a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Any new challenges in obtaining oil from the Persian Gulf could drive China to expand its reliance on Russian energy supplies...
_

[Syne]

Pretty much forget about its regime collapsing, it seems to have already tentatively replaced what it lost -- theory that it's pre-designed to grow new tentacles when they're cut off.

Just more targets, whether of the US, Israel, or the Iranian people.

Any new challenges in obtaining oil from the Persian Gulf could drive China to expand its reliance on Russian energy supplies...

That is a partnership that has already existed and we've never had the leverage to sever.

[confused2]

Word on the street is that Iran has zero chance of becoming a democracy. So keep killing people until you find one prepared to accept your terms. Art of the Deal chapter 13.