Will Iran regime fall, or just another umpteenth fail of protesters? (rerun hobbies)

[Yazata]

In negotiations news, multiple sources say that the most recent Iranian offer was a "total pause in the enrichment of uranium", transfer of its existing enriched uranium offshore to a third party country such as Russia, and willingness to cut mining, energy and other deals with the United States. All of that in exchange for sanctions relief (and no US attack).

Apparently there's nothing about cutting back Iran's ballistic missile programs or halting support of Iran's terrorist proxies around the region. Nor is there any word about how the "pause" in uranium enrichment would be verified and policed, or what kind of uranium enrichment capability Iran would retain. And it doesn't seem to offer the Iranian dissidents anything, since the mullahs' dictatorship would remain in power.

The United States seems to think that the talks are making progress though, and Iran says that they will be back in two weeks with new proposals to address the remaining issues. I get the impression that they are playing for time, which might suit the US, since it should take about two weeks for the USS Gerald Ford carrier battle group to arrive in the area.

A wild card is Israel. Speculation is that Netanyahu is toying with the idea of Israel attacking Iran by itself if the US cuts a deal with Iran that leaves Israel vulnerable. But given the rather depleted state of Israeli air defenses, that would have to assume that the US would fight to defend Israel against Iranian attack, even if we weren't joining in attacking Iran. That's a very big gamble and I expect that many in Israel (including its military) would oppose doing that if the US weren't there attacking Iran alongside them.

[Syne]

I'm really hoping the talks are just the US stalling before a decisive strike. Maybe getting some key people to show themselves.

[Yazata]

Latest word is that four more E-3 AWACS aircraft have departed the US headed to RAF Mildenhall in England. That will raise the total there to six, which is very unusual.

But the OSINT observers note that as yet, there has been no noticeable movement of American ground forces, not even special forces. If what the Pentagon is contemplating is strictly an air campaign, it's unclear if it could succeed in overthrowing the current Iranian regime or ending its nuclear ambitions.

[confused2]

Insider suggests mullahs have no plan B - no intention of finding work selling kebabs if deposed. Very keen to save their own skins. Keep negotiating for as long as possible.

[Syne]

But the OSINT observers note that as yet, there has been no noticeable movement of American ground forces, not even special forces. If what the Pentagon is contemplating is strictly an air campaign, it's unclear if it could succeed in overthrowing the current Iranian regime or ending its nuclear ambitions.

Even if there were more sympathy and support for the Iranian people, there is zero taste for US boots on the ground.
But I'm optimistic that, between US and Israeli intelligence, we have enough crucial targets to cripple the regime... hopefully with Iranians still willing and able to take advantage.

Overall, Iranians overthrowing the regime will have the best long-term chance of future peaceful stability. We all know how well unilateral US-effectuated regime change tends to turn out.

[Yazata]

At least 17 aerial refueling tankers, both KC-135's and KC-46's have taken off from multiple air bases and appear to be headed east over the Atlantic. Unknown whether they are 'dragging' fighter planes but they likely are. It's a large move, whatever it is.

And it appears that 18 American F-35A stealth fighters from RAF Lakenheath moved out on Monday! I've been waiting for the USAF assets at Lakenheath to move. Things are well and truly rocking.

The data tables below are by Defense Geek, who is the editor of the UK Defense Journal, and his open-source intelligence collaborators in the Military Air Tracking Alliance. It's gathered by observing and counting aircraft movements in and out of air bases, monitoring military radio frequencies etc. While it's unauthorized intelligence collection, I don't think the US is bothered very much. They want to scare Tehran into agreeing to Washington's demands after all, and this definitely serves that purpose. (Deal-making from a position of strength is President Trump's thing.)

It's probably just a partial list of what's happening. Defense Geek just woke up in the UK and says that the night has been very busy, but he might take a while to catch that up since he's off to Mildenhall to look at the E-3 AWACS planes gathered there.

We haven't seen military movements like this since the preparations for the second Gulf War. The next few weeks are going to be very interesting.

'EGUL' is Lakenheath, 'OJMS' is Muwaffaq in Jordan. 'EGUN' is Mildenhall, 'LGSA' is Chania in Greece

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'LERT' is Rota in Spain, KMMT is McEntire Joint National Guard Base in South Carolina, ETAD is Spangdahlem

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KLFI is Langley AFB in VA, LIPA is Aviano in Italy

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[Yazata]

Observers have counted what appear to be 109 American air refueling aircraft currently in the theater at many different air bases. Some of the bases are unexpected, such as the Bulgarian air base at Sofia Bulgaria, where ten KC-135's were seen. (Bulgaria is a NATO member.) 109 is a significant fraction of the total USAF aerial refueling capacity, which is the largest in the world. No other country has anything like it, which limits their air forces' ability to operate at long distances.

It's unclear how many are staying there to handle a large air assault over many days, and perhaps to service the Israeli air force as well, since Israel's refueling capacity is severely limited. (We assisted them that way during the June 12-day war as well, which enabled the Israeli jets to reach Iran.) Or how many are simply there after escorting American fighters across the Atlantic and will be returning back to the US.

[Yazata]

Negotiations don't appear to be going well.

The Islamic clerics who really run Iran have announced that Iran will never renounce the right to enrich uranium or limit the numbers or range of their ballistic missiles. They claim that those things are none of America's business.

The secular government in Iran appears to be caught in the middle. Or maybe it's all a game of good-cop/bad-cop, stringing the US along with hints of successful negotiations, then yanking the ball away like Lucy used to do to Charlie Brown. Just playing for time.

The latest Iranian offer reportedly was a 3 year halt on enrichment, which US negotiator Steve Witkoff immediately rejected.

The thing is that President Trump really doesn't want to get the US into a war with Iran. He'd much prefer to pressure them to make a better deal than any previously. But Iran doesn't seem to want to go there, and might be calling Trump's bluff.

And there's been a lot of speculation that if it comes to war, which seems increasingly likely, Trump might go for a fast and intense shock-and-awe style attack against Iranian nuclear and military sites, then halt the attacks and wait, hoping the Iranians would be more willing to make a deal.

My guess is that they would be less likely to make a deal and would unleash on Israel and Muwaffaq in Jordan where so many US aircraft are temporarily based. Which would probably trigger a long air campaign lasting weeks, probably aimed not only at the nuclear and missile programs, but at killing as much of the Iranian leadership as possible and destroying as much of the IRGC as possible, hopefully triggering regime change.

Again Israel is a wildcard. They have their own agenda in all of this.

Tactical news:

The USS Gerald Ford carrier battle group has just passed Gibraltar into the Mediterranean.

OSINTDefender says:

The U.S. Department of Defense has spent the week amassing a very large force in Europe and the Middle East with over 100 aircraft arriving just this week as tensions continue with Iran.

Currently in Europe/U.S. European Command:

36 - F-35s
24 - F-15s
28 - F-16s
12 - F-22s
18 - KC-46s
57+ - KC-135s

USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78):
48+ - F/A-18s
6+ - E/A-18s
4+ - E-2s
2 - P-8s

Currently in the Middle East/U.S. Central Command:
36 - F-15s
36 - F-16s
30 - F-35s
12 - A-10s
6 - E/A-18Gs
6 - E-3s
5 - E-11s
7 - KC-46s
20 - KC-135s
1 - U-2

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72):
12 - F-35s
36 - F/A-18s
6+ - E/A-18Gs
4+ - E-2s
4+ - P-8s

This situation is still evolving and aircraft are still moving into position.

[Syne]

Hopefully we would cripple their counter-attack capabilities in our opening offensive. I don't see how we avoid a military strike of military, nuclear, and government sites without encouraging, for example, China to take Taiwan. Strength is only a deterrent if it's obvious it will be exercised.

[Yazata]

12 F-22's have arrived at RAF Lakenheath after they tried to fly there a day or two ago but had to turn back to Langley AFB in the US due to some sort of technical fault with an aerial refueling tanker. They switched out the tanker and these exceedingly advanced stealth fighters are now in England. Given that Keir Starmer has said that the Americans can't launch attacks on Iran from British bases, these jets are expected to be moving on to other bases soon. The US seems to be freely using Britain as a staging area though, so Starmer appears to be trying to have it both ways.

(Photo of the F-22's at Lakenheath by aviation photographer Harry Moulton)

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And at least ten USAF C-17A transports are headed out over the Atlantic as I write this, having left Ft. Hood in Texas. They are once again believed to be carrying air defense missiles and launchers to defend against any Iranian missile or drone attacks. These latest flights bring the total flights believed to be carrying aircraft/drone/missile defenses to 127.

Given the large number of US aircraft located at Muwaffaq in Jordan, mostly parked in the open, the US must be reasonably certain that they can defeat any Iranian missile and/or drone attack on the location. What's more, any Iranian attacks on Israel would have to pass over or near Muwaffaq. So that seems to me to be a key point point in any coming campaign. I'm sure the Iranians are aware of that and will be gunning for it.