May 24, 2024 05:27 PM
Atlantic to get 'extraordinary' hurricane season
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw441ng00wxo
INTRO: The North Atlantic could get as many as seven major hurricanes of category three strength or over this year, which would be more than double the usual number, the US weather agency Noaa has warned. Normally you'd expect three major hurricanes in a season.
As many as 13 Atlantic hurricanes of category one or above are forecast for the period, which runs from June to November. Record high sea surface temperatures are partly to blame, as is a likely shift in regional weather patterns.
While there's no evidence climate change is producing more hurricanes, it is making the most powerful ones more likely, and bringing heavier rainfall... (MORE - details)
Something very strange is happening to tornadoes across the US. And scientists are baffled
https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-eart...-tornadoes
EXCERPTS: Every year, an average of 1,200 tornadoes are reported in the US. While they can strike any time and any place, the most regular and violent activity strikes the central and southern states in the period roughly between March and June: tornado season. Yet in the first months of 2024, there has been a strange and devastating uptick in twister occurrences.
[...] While no one is completely certain, experts think that the recent change in tornado behaviour could be a consequence of the global transition out of a period of El Niño.
[...] Houser points out that we still can’t definitively attribute the changes in tornado patterns to this shift from El Niño to normal atmospheric conditions, and that any link remains hypothetical.
“There’s not necessarily a link, but there’s a possible link. It’s tempting to link these events together but we need to be careful because it’s not necessarily scientifically robust,” she says.
Conversely, in periods of La Niña – the opposite of El Niño, when average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are cooler than usual – Houser explains that we might expect more wintertime tornadoes concentrated in the southeastern US states like Florida, Alabama and Mississippi.
According to predictions by the National Weather Service in early May, La Niña could form as early as June or August 2024 with increasing likelihood in the following seasons. A transition from El Niño to neutral conditions is expected beforehand... (MORE - missing details)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw441ng00wxo
INTRO: The North Atlantic could get as many as seven major hurricanes of category three strength or over this year, which would be more than double the usual number, the US weather agency Noaa has warned. Normally you'd expect three major hurricanes in a season.
As many as 13 Atlantic hurricanes of category one or above are forecast for the period, which runs from June to November. Record high sea surface temperatures are partly to blame, as is a likely shift in regional weather patterns.
While there's no evidence climate change is producing more hurricanes, it is making the most powerful ones more likely, and bringing heavier rainfall... (MORE - details)
Something very strange is happening to tornadoes across the US. And scientists are baffled
https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-eart...-tornadoes
EXCERPTS: Every year, an average of 1,200 tornadoes are reported in the US. While they can strike any time and any place, the most regular and violent activity strikes the central and southern states in the period roughly between March and June: tornado season. Yet in the first months of 2024, there has been a strange and devastating uptick in twister occurrences.
[...] While no one is completely certain, experts think that the recent change in tornado behaviour could be a consequence of the global transition out of a period of El Niño.
[...] Houser points out that we still can’t definitively attribute the changes in tornado patterns to this shift from El Niño to normal atmospheric conditions, and that any link remains hypothetical.
“There’s not necessarily a link, but there’s a possible link. It’s tempting to link these events together but we need to be careful because it’s not necessarily scientifically robust,” she says.
Conversely, in periods of La Niña – the opposite of El Niño, when average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are cooler than usual – Houser explains that we might expect more wintertime tornadoes concentrated in the southeastern US states like Florida, Alabama and Mississippi.
According to predictions by the National Weather Service in early May, La Niña could form as early as June or August 2024 with increasing likelihood in the following seasons. A transition from El Niño to neutral conditions is expected beforehand... (MORE - missing details)
