Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

Yazata Offline
American soldiers at Al Ubeid airforce base in Qatar watching the Iranian missile attack

https://x.com/usawtfm/status/1937232132079833393

President Trump is pissed off by Israel's last minute bombing of Iran

https://x.com/gabbycuccia/status/1937468918442156535

Nevertheless, the ceasefire seems to be holding so far. Israel's homefront command has told Israeli citizens that they don't need to remain close to bomb shelters and can live their lives normally. Reportedly, Tehran is quiet for the first time in days.
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Yazata Offline
Quote:three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

OK, so who were these "three sources"? What are their names and positions? How did they come into possession of the information that they claimed to possess? How did Reuters, CNN and the NYT come into possession of what is said to be classified information? What was the leaker's agenda and motivation for illegally making classified information public?

It all comes down to "you are just going to have to trust us, we are *professional journalists!*" (After the Russia collusion hoax, the Hunter Biden laptop lies, "sharp as a tack", the mysterious operators of the autopen, the border is secure, and a hundred other lies, "journalists" asking for the public's trust is asking for a lot.)

On the other hand, we have the President of the United States and the Secretary of Defense, who we can justifiably assume are fully briefed and have seen all the classified assessments. I know who I consider more credible.

Personally, I'm not convinced that the intelligence community really knows how much damage the Air Force did to Fordow. They know the capabilities of the Massive Ordinance Penetrator bombs. They know the results of tests out in the American desert in Nevada or someplace. (That's all classified.) So all that the bomb damage assessments can do is hypothesize based on test data and on whatever other technical means (also classified) that they have available about the results of the strike. They have satellite intelligence. They probably have plenty of signals intelligence about what the Iranians were excitedly saying among themselves. Mossad probably has its own sources.

So I would guess that they have best-case and worst-case scenarios.

Trump prefers to emphasize the best-case scenarios where the enrichment centrifuges were largely destroyed. Taken along with the destruction at ground level to the nuclear weapons infrastructure and the Israelis killing many of Iran's nuclear scientists and engineers, and the best-case is that their nuclear weapons program was essentially set back to zero.

The worst-case scenarios would have most of Iran's enriched uranium having been moved to safe locations or at least buried but recoverable. That would include, worst-case, enough weapons grade uranium for several atom bombs plus enough technical talent to fashion it into weapons. And worst-case, many enrichment centrifuges might have survived that can raise the 60% enriched uranium that Iran was known to have up to 90%.

Assuming that what the "journalists" received was a real assessment, it was probably a worst case assessment provided to the opposition media by disloyal deep state employees in an attempt to cast shade on what has to be one of the Trump administration's biggest triumphs, with no concern whatsoever for what the assessment might also reveal about American capabilities. I hope that the investigative resources of the Defense and Justice Departments are seeking out those responsible for termination and/or prosecution.
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Syne Offline
(Jun 25, 2025 07:06 AM)Yazata Wrote: Assuming that what the "journalists" received was a real assessment, it was probably a worst case assessment provided to the opposition media by disloyal deep state employees in an attempt to cast shade on what has to be one of the Trump administration's biggest triumphs, with no concern whatsoever for what the assessment might also reveal about American capabilities. I hope that the investigative resources of the Defense and Justice Departments are seeking out those responsible for termination and/or prosecution.

^This.
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Syne Offline
(Jun 25, 2025 07:06 AM)Yazata Wrote: ...the Hunter Biden laptop lies...

Same CNN "journalist."
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Yazata Offline
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt both say that the Pentagon and the FBI are jointly investigating the source of the leak of classified materials that the NYT and CNN publicized.
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Syne Offline
They are also talking about limiting Congressional access to such classified material... leading people to wonder if someone in Congress was the leak.
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Magical Realist Offline
Doesn't make sense to worry about and hunt down a leak if the information it relayed wasn't true. Why are they hiding this? Because it makes the orange manbaby look less like a big military hero. He isn't and never will be. And everyone knows how factually challenged he is. This is just part for the course.
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Syne Offline
It's actually a crime to leak classified information... even if it was a low-confidence outcome probability.
But we all know Democrats love their criminals.
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Magical Realist Offline
Quote:It's actually a crime to leak classified information.

So the information IS leaked and classified. Why wouldn't it be true?
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Syne Offline
(Jun 26, 2025 12:58 AM)Magical Realist Wrote:
Quote:It's actually a crime to leak classified information.

So the information IS leaked and classified. Why wouldn't it be true?

Like I already said, if only you could read worth a damn, it was likely a low-confidence probability in a report detailing all of the available intelligence. They just cherry-picked to leak that instead of the high-confidence success intelligence.

But just like democrats to pounce on anything that undermines our military or its effectiveness.
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