Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

A scene that won't exactly please Iran.

US Navy F-18's from Strike Fighter Squadron 25 "Fist of the Fleet" (VFA-25) normally based at Naval Air Station Lemoore in California, landing at Muwaffaq air base in Jordan. Presumably they are being deployed here tasked with shooting down Iranian drones on their way to Israel or attacking Jordan for helping Israel.

US Navy photos

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nsNS

[Yazata]

Still no Iranian attack.

The Republic of Cyprus has announced to the various countries with diplomatic relations with Cyprus the activation of Cyprus' Special National Plan ESTIA for the reception and repatriation of foreign nationals of those friendly countries from what might potentially become a war zone, through the territory of Cyprus. This includes aircraft landings, overflights and ship dockings.

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Lots of people on the internet (who don't know and are only speculating) are saying that the longer Iran goes without attacking, the less likely an attack becomes. I'm starting to agree.

Their last big attack was designed to overwhelm Israeli air defenses and it failed to do that. If Iran fails a second time, they would appear weak.

Iran's economy is heavily dependent on petrochemical exports (much of it to China) from tanker terminals in the Persian Gulf, particularly Kharg island. These would be relatively easy to take out with air strikes, which could result in a major economic contraction in Iran and hardship for the average Iranian, many of whom don't like Iran's theocratic regime. So there's the danger of civil unrest destabilizing the regime.

And the death of a foreigner in Iran just might not justify the risk.

So Iran could simply redouble their support of Hezbollah (constantly firing rockets into Israel and making themselves a major annoyance) and the Houthis (effectively cutting off world maritime commerce through the Suez canal), and then try to run out the clock until they have nuclear weapons.

Of course Israel's military campaign north into Lebanon to weaken Hezbollah is still on the table unless Hezbollah stops firing at Israel. If Iran doesn't reply militarily to their proxy getting beaten up, then again they would appear weak.

[Yazata]

Lots of rumors tonight (what else is new?) that attack preparations have been observed in Iran and that the long anticipated attack might come as soon as tomorrow. Indications that this might actually be true include both the Israeli air force and the Israeli military intelligence directorate raising their alert levels today.

The United States rarely says anything publicly about submarine deployments, since submarines are the original stealth warships. But again there are rumors that the USS Georgia (SSGN-729) has left the Mediterranean where it was, and is moving down the Red sea headed closer to Iran. (If it transited the Suez canal, it could have been seen then.) The Georgia is a former ballistic missile submarine now converted to carry up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles.

Israeli media is reporting/speculating:

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[Yazata]

It's been a month and still no Iranian attack.

I'm getting the impression that Iran doesn't really want a war, but doesn't want to appear weak either, by walking back all the tough talk.

And the US appears equally ambiguous. Washington DC has been heavily promoting a negotiation process along with Egypt and Qatar. The US secretary of state has been flying from capital to capital. But so far they have been unable to concoct a solution that both Hamas and Israel will accept. (No surprise there. Hamas demands the elimination of Israel, Israel demands the elimination of Hamas.) Meanwhile Iran has been saving face by refraining from attacking while negotiations are taking place.

While negotiations are underway, the US continues to move military forces into the region. I'm hugely doubtful whether the current US regime would actually order a strike on Iran in behalf of Israel, but the capability exists and the presence of powerful American forces is evidently intended to force Tehran to factor in the possibility and make them more reluctant to start anything.

The map below gives a rough idea. I don't entirely believe it though. It shows the Roosevelt carrier strike group in very narrow waters at the Strait of Hormuz where it would be a sitting duck in war. I don't think they would risk an aircraft carrier like that. I expect the Roosevelt and its escorts to be closer to where the map puts the Lincoln carrier strike group. And the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group was in Guam not too long ago and is probably still in transit to the middle east.

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[Yazata]

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah appears to have dramatically increased Saturday night. Hundreds of rockets are hitting Galilee in northern Israel. Israeli surface to air interceptor missiles firing off. Several waves of heavy Israeli air and artillery strikes are underway in southern Lebanon.

Nothing seems to be coming from Iran, at least so far.

Update - Hezbollah has indeed announced the beginning of their "retaliation" for the death of Fuad Shukr in a southern Beirut suburb in July.

Israeli fighter plane jet engines can be heard over Tel Aviv.

Netanyahu is in the Israeli Defense Forces underground headquarters beneath Tel Aviv.

Ben Gurion International Airport is choked with foreigners trying to leave but all flights have been cancelled.

Some localized power outages reported in the historic medieval city of Acre, after rocket impacts. Early reports of one civilian injury in Acre so far. (A woman with relatively minor shrapnel injuries.)

Israel's ambulance service is on alert. Rocket attacks on Haifa and Tel Aviv are expected but haven't happened yet.

nsNS

[Yazata]

Hezbollah's rocket attacks appear to be tapering off after more than 300 rockets were fired into northern Israel. Notably, Hezbollah has not fired its more modern and longer range Iranian guided missiles that could hit Tel Aviv. The attacks so far appear to have mostly been shorter range unguided artillery rockets.

Reports (from unofficial sources) that most of Hezbollah's more high tech gear is in Shi'ite areas in northeastern Lebanon's Bekaa valley, near the Syrian border. Iran flies it into Syrian air bases from which it is trucked across the border into Lebanon. Israel is watching all that closely and has conducted multiple airstrikes against Hezbollah weapons warehouses in recent days. And a day or two ago Israel launched a large airstrike against one of Syria's largest airbases.

Unclear if tonight's excitement was the opening shots of the long expected Israel/Hezbollah war, or whether it was just Hezbollah face-saving. It was a much smaller attack than Hezbollah is believed capable of.

The US for its part says that no American forces took part in Israel's heavy air attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[Yazata]

Fighting has tapered off to its former level of sporadic firing back and forth.

There are reports in Middle Eastern media that both Israel and Hezbollah have communicated through third parties (Qatar often plays that useful role) and both say they don't desire any further escalation.

By all accounts the Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah last night were very intense. Many Israeli jets were in the air over Lebanon. Israel is taking credit for having hit Hezbollah so hard they couldn't continue their attacks. I'm not sure I believe that since Hezbollah appears to have held back quite a bit from what they were capable of. They didn't use their best Iranian missiles for instance.

The only known Israeli combat death so far reported is a sailor on an Israeli navy Dvora class patrol boat that was hit by an Israeli surface to air missile that missed the Hezbollah rocket that it was trying to intercept and then fell on the Israeli boat which was in the sea a short distance from shore. Besides the sailor that was killed, two others were injured. The rocket pierced the deck above the engines but didn't seriously damage the boat.

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[Yazata]

Mind Boggling News is coming out of Lebanon today!

It appears that Hezbollah issues old-style pagers to its fighters. They don't trust the security of the local cell-phones and forbid their fighters from using them. They assume the Israelis (or the NSA or the GCHQ) are monitoring them and are extracting fighters' GPS locations from the phones.

Well, this morning all the Hezbollah pagers simultaneously EXPLODED!!

It wasn't just lithium ion batteries catching fire either. These were small but powerful explosive detonations! Which suggests that they were loaded with plastic explosives wherever they were manufactured. (I wonder where Hezbollah sourced them...)

Whoever did this (Israel presumably) was very good. This will go down in history as a classic of covert asymmetric warfare.

Latest reports are that there were as many as 4,000 of these detonations! Many appear to have exploded in Syria as well.

There appear to have been fatalities and countless severe injuries. Lebanese hospitals are overwhelmed. Many ambulances in the streets and calls are being made for blood donations. An AP reporter in an emergency room reports a constant flow of people with hands blown off or big chunks of their leg missing near their pockets.

(There's going to be a big demand for surgeons specializing in phalloplasties in coming weeks...)

The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon has been rushed to a hospital in an ambulance with what are said to be severe abdominal injuries. (Iran says his injuries are minor.) I expect that there were quite a few Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officers in Lebanon and Syria carrying the pagers too.

Both Iran and Iraq have promised emergency medical aid.

Hezbollah is blaming Israel and promise a response. Israel has gone to a higher level of alert.

Israeli TV is reporting that full scale war with Hezbollah is expected to begin soon.

For whatever it's worth, the United States says they had no involvement and had not been informed beforehand.

https://x.com/sputnik_ar/status/1836035175337075164

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[stryder]

Mind Boggling News is coming out of Lebanon today!

It appears that Hezbollah issues old-style pagers to its fighters. (Perhaps they don't trust the security of the local cell-phone networks and assume the Israelis (or the NSA or the GCHQ) are monitoring them.)

Well, this morning all the Hezbollah pagers simultaneously EXPLODED!!

It wasn't just lithium ion batteries catching fire either. These were small but powerful explosive detonations! Which suggests that they were packed with explosives wherever they were manufactured. (I wonder where Hezbollah sourced them...)

Whoever did this (Israel presumably) was good. This will go down in history as a classic of covert asymmetric warfare.

Latest reports are that there were as many as 4,000 of these detonations! Many appear to have exploded in Syria as well.

There appear to have been many fatalities and countless severe injuries. Lebanese hospitals are overwhelmed. Many ambulances in the streets and calls are being made for blood donations.

The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon has been rushed to a hospital with what are said to be severe abdominal injuries.

(There's going to be a big call for surgeons specializing in phalloplasties in coming days...)

Both Iran and Iraq have promised emergency medical aid.

Hezbollah is blaming Israel and promise a response. Israel has gone to a higher level of alert.

Israeli TV is reporting that full scale war with Hezbollah is expected to begin soon.

https://x.com/sputnik_ar/status/1836035175337075164

That is one of those things that might have looked good on paper wiping out a bunch of terrorist, but in the real world that itself is terrorizing as it's opened a door to how people could effectively attack any countries and any people anywhere. Kind of glad I don't use mobile phones, but it does mean we need more sniffer dogs to check devices. (and even then it could be difficult if it's sealed)

[Yazata]

The Lebanese health ministry is now reporting 11 dead and "over 4,000" wounded, including approx 400 critically injured. (Update: The Lebanese health ministry now says the correct numbers are 9 dead and about 2,800 wounded.)

The Saudi news agency Al Hadath is reporting that ~500 Hezbollah members have suffered serious eye injuries and some have been blinded.

Sky News Arabia is reporting that Mossad somehow introduced PETN (Pentaerythritol tetranitrate) into the pagers' batteries. Supposedly a change to the pagers' firmware would cause the batteries to overheat on command, supposedly detonating the explosive. (PETN is a major component of C4 and Semtex).

I'm doubtful about that, since as I understand it, fire won't detonate PETN but just makes it burn. It requires an explosive shock to detonate it, like a blasting cap. Which would be easy enough to engineer.

Video of the chaos inside a Lebanese hospital -

https://x.com/WachtelDan/status/1836038754756145515

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