Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[confused2]

Update - Israeli aircraft appear to be flying above Lebanese cities and towns in many parts of the country. Loud sonic booms can be heard, but no actual air attacks as far as is known, at least to this point.

I've long thought this is a good (as of useful and sensible) tactic to alert a civilian population to the fact that war isn't like a walk in the park or a game. The pictures of war are often rescuers trying to find survivors in a bombed building .. for those inside it is either ceasing to exist in an instant or being buried under tons of steel and concrete ..your chances of living .. can you feel your legs? do you still have legs? anything?

[Yazata]

A "US defense official" tells Fox News that "there is credible intel pointing to an attack against US bases in Europe over the next week or so."

[Yazata]

It's been a month, so time for another update.

The biggest recent news is that a Hezbollah rocket fired from southern Lebanon struck a Druze village in the Israeli Golan heights, killing 12 children who were playing soccer.

Israel is not pleased and all kinds of rumors are swirling that the long anticipated Israeli offensive into southern Lebanon against Hezbollah is immanent.

But it's already early morning over there, and nothing dramatic happened overnight. Several small Israeli airstrikes and a few rockets fired into Israel, but nothing out of the ordinary over the last few months.

Airlines are cancelling flights in and out of Beirut just to be safe. The US Navy's USS Wasp amphibious battle group is off the Greek island of Crete headed east. Several British naval assets are also headed toward the eastern Mediterranean. Speculation is that the US and British forces are intended to facilitate evacuation of US and UK civilians from Beirut should that become necessary. Neither country really wants to get involved in a shooting war with Iran or its proxies.

[Yazata]

Things are still relatively quiet along Israel's northern border. A handful of Hezbollah rocket and drone incursions that caused no damage. And an Israeli airforce attack on a Syrian radar site near the Golan heights.

Israel is reportedly in talks with the US, European countries and some regional countries like Jordan. Washington DC in particular is trying to pressure Israel into not doing anything that might draw in Iran and ignite a much larger Mideast war. (Politically very bad so close to the November election.)

So, Israel seemingly has to decide between two courses of action:

1. ('Go big') Launch a ground attack into southern Lebanon in hopes of destroying as much of Hezbollah as possible and driving the remnants north away from the Israeli border. The downside of this option would be the danger of the war escalating and the losses that the Israeli army might suffer. (It would also anger the United States which has been agitating against it.)

2. ('Go small') Or launch a large air campaign attacking all the larger known Hezbollah positions without the ground component. This option would limit Israeli losses but it would be far less effective in breaking Hezbollah, who are already dispersing and hiding their rockets and other arms in anticipation of air strikes. But it would at least serve the political purpose of creating the impression that Israel is responding strongly.

My own guess is that Israel opts for #2, the intense but less effective campaign of air strikes.

[Syne]

Israel killed Hezbollah leader behind attack that killed 12 children.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/idf-kills-...-officials

[Yazata]

And the death of the Hezbollah commander in a Beirut suburb has just been followed up with the targeted assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas!

Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital of Tehran, where he was the guest of the new president of Iran. And today was the Iranian president's inauguration day!

It still isn't clear how the hit was carried out, whether by assassin, missile, airstrike or what. And it still hasn't been definitively confirmed who did it. Everyone is assuming that it was the Israelis though.

If the Israelis did conduct the hit in the middle of the Iranian capital, on a guest of the Iranian state in what had to be a highly protected guest-house, and did it so as to upstage the Iranian inauguration, the Iranians are going to be plenty mad.

Iran's National Security Council is blaming Israel and says Israel will pay a "heavy price".

Haniyeh meeting with the new Iranian president Masoud and with Iranian 'Supreme Leader' Ali Khamenei just hours before:

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[Yazata]

The Israelis have just announced a NOTAM closing pretty much all of Israel north of Tel Aviv to most civilian air traffic. The flight restrictions only last 24 hours but can be extended.

There's speculation that it might be go-time for some kind of military operation towards the north.

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The Iranian National Security Council is currently holding an emergency meeting at the 'Supreme Leader's' residence. Present is the general commanding the IRGC Quds Force (the IRGC foreign special operations branch that operates all the foreign proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis).

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Iranian sources are saying that Haniyeh (who normally lives in Qatar) was staying in a guest house in Tehran operated by the IRGC. The sources say that the building was hit by a missile fired by an Israeli aircraft from outside Iranian airspace.

[Yazata]

The United States has belatedly raised its Lebanon travel warning to Level 4 'Do Not Travel', "due to rising tensions between Hezbollah and Israel". They tell Americans currently in Lebanon "be prepared to shelter in place should the situation deteriorate".

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And today Israel was raised to Level 3 'Reconsider Travel', with 'Do not travel' to Gaza and to within 2 1/2 miles of the Lebanese and Syrian borders.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/...isory.html

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Netanyahu just made a nationwide address on Israeli TV. He didn't mention the hit on the leader of Hamas in the middle of Tehran, but he did say "We have launched strikes on three fronts in the last few days". He warned Israelis "Challenging days are ahead of us" and assured them "We are prepared for any scenario".

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The US airlines United and Delta have just canceled all flights to Ben Gurion IAP outside Tel Aviv, starting tomorrow.

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Reports are coming in that the 'Supreme Leader' of Iran, Ali Khameneni, has ordered the Iranian armed forces to launch "a Direct Strike" against Israel in retaliation for yesterday's assassination of the political leader of Hamas in the Iranian capital.

[Syne]

Netanyahu just made a nationwide address on Israeli TV. He didn't mention the hit on the leader of Hamas in the middle of Tehran, but he did say "We have launched strikes on three fronts in the last few days". He warned Israelis "Challenging days are ahead of us" and assured them "We are prepared for any scenario".

When Israelis say they're prepared for any scenario, I'd be apt to believe them.

[Yazata]

Expectation seems to be that an Iranian attack won't come until after Haniyeh's funeral and burial on Friday in Qatar.

When it comes, a ballistic missile, cruise missile and drone attack will come from multiple directions, from Iran itself and from all the various Iranian proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. It's expected that Israeli military facilities will be targeted, and not the civilian population. Pretty much like last time, apparently.

Israel is reportedly letting Iran know through "back channels" that if the attack causes significant damage or loss of life in Israel, it will mean full-scale war.

My biggest worry is that Israel might run out of its very advanced and capable air defense missiles (many of them made in the United States). The Iranian goal seems to be to throw so much at Israel that Israeli air defences are overwhelmed and Iranian missiles start getting through. That didn't really work last time, but it isn't clear how depleted Israeli stockpiles have become.

US stockpiles are also becoming depleted as we supply seemingly unlimited numbers of defensive missiles to both Ukraine and Israel. It's starting to impact US military capabilities and that inevitably limits how much aid we can continue giving Ukraine and Israel, and for how long.

Both Russia and Iran have learned to attack advanced air defenses with hordes of cheap drones, where the drones have little chance of getting through, but where they make their enemies expend an expensive surface-to-air missile to deal with each one. That's a trade in Russia and Iran's favor. (It's also why both the US and Israel are experimenting with air defense lasers that could engage lots of targets quickly and cheaply.)

Israeli F15 - I don't think that there's any doubt that the Israeli air force is far more advanced and capable than Iran's (thanks in large part to the United States).

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