Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

After a couple of weeks of often frenzied US diplomacy, hoping without success to negotiate an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, there are indications that the Israelis have begun moving their army into Rafah, the last remaining Hamas military stronghold in Gaza.

Reportedly the Israelis are moving forces, including tanks, along the Egypt/Gaza border, towards the sea. The goal seems to get control of the border and the Rafah border crossing, so that they can search everything going into Gaza for arms smuggling.

Video from the Egypt side of the Rafah border crossing doesn't show anything visible, but short bursts of automatic weapons fire and the occasional sound of tank canons can be heard. The Israelis are said to be less than a kilometer away.

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Reports are coming in that the Israeli Defense Force tanks have reached the Rafah border crossing.

[Kornee]

Thankfully there are a handful of Jews with a properly functioning moral compass, flexible enough in thinking to radically change an ingrained pov, and then unafraid to call it like it really is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyvOlllV_NI

[Syne]

Sod off anti-Semite.

[Yazata]

Here's the best maps I've found of the recent Israeli movement. Two armored brigades entered Gaza near the Egyptian border and proceeded to advance up the damaged 10,000 ft (~2 mile) runway of the closed Gaza airport. The Givati mechanized brigade took up postion at the end of the runway while the 401'st brigade advanced along the Gaza/Egypt border wall and seized the nearby border crossing between Gaza and Egypt. The map seems to indicate a unit of Hamas fighters of some sort facing the Israelis in the al-Bayuk neighborhood near the airport.

(Maps based on recent satellite imagery and both Israeli and Arab sources by Gaza War Unit Tracker on X)

Map showing the directions of attack:

[Image: GM9ivQrW4AA14lj?format=png&name=900x900]

Map showing where the IDF appears to be as of today:

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[Yazata]

Here's the current situation in Gaza.

Over the last couple of weeks the Israeli army has pulled back out of Gaza City, Khan Yunis and most of the areas they had taken, after thoroughly searching them for weapons and ammunition caches, rocket workshops and tunnels. They have retained a security strip bisecting the Gaza strip in two.

Clearly the Israeli objective in this war was to destroy Hamas as an organized military force. They have largely succeeded in that. Out of some 15,000 Hamas fighters before the war, only a few thousand remain, mostly in Rafah. Hamas command and control have broken down. Most of their arms and ammunition are lost.

Sadly, Hamas wasn't just an army, it was also Gaza's government that provided services from police and fire to hospitals and education. The collapse of Hamas' military has been accompanied by a collapse of public services and something of a 'Mad-Max' situation on the street where only the strong and ruthless survive.

I think that the Israelis want Gaza civilians to return to the light blue areas on the map, without bringing military-grade weapons and ammunition with them. Making them walk can accomplish that. Right now most of the civilians are huddled in Rafah and its surroundings, where they have been living off whatever UN aid shipments aren't stolen by Hamas or by criminal gangs, all funneled through the Rafah border crossing. The trouble is that Rafah is where the last organized Hamas fighters are holed up. Hamas has even managed to fire a few rockets at southern Israel from the vicinity of the airport in recent days, which is probably why the Israeli army went there a couple of days ago.

So I expect the Israelis want to stop the UN aid shipments into Rafah so as to motivate the civilians to move away from the Hamas fighters sheltering there. But just imagine the deafening shrieking from the left if Israel halted UN aid... "The poor Gazans are starving!" "Genocide!!"

The Israelis (and the US army believe it or not) are preparing to pour aid supplies in, which has led Hamas to fire mortars at those preparations. Hamas does not want the population returning to areas cleared by Israel or becoming dependent on Israeli aid. Hamas needs their human shields and all the poor suffering "victims" of Israeli "aggression" that they can parade before their adoring media! Israel feeding the people and helping them rebuild wouldn't fit the "narrative" at all!

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nsNS

[Yazata]

Reports from Iran say that a helicopter carrying the Iranian President and Foreign Minister has crashed during bad weather in a mountainous area of Iran's East Azerbijan province. The Iranians appear to not know where it crashed and have appealed to friendly countries for help. Turkey responded by sending one of their most advanced drones, a Bayrakhar Akinci, which is flying a search pattern and sending back video that I believe is being livestreamed. (300,000 watching!) But the crash area is covered by cloudy overcast, so not much to see.

By all accounts the rescue effort is very confused. The Iranians earlier announced they had established contact with the downed helicopter, then said the report was false.

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What looks like a rendered image of a Bayrakhar Akinci in Turkish airforce colors with weapons hardpoints and a sensor ball turret on its belly

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Update: the Turkish drone has reportedly detected a heat source with its thermal imaging camera and rescuers are headed to that location.

[Yazata]

More confusion

Report that a rescue team has reached the coordinates provided by the drone but didn't find the helicopter.

Another report says the rescuers haven't reached the coordinates provided by the drone

approx location supplied by the drone - rugged mountain wildlife refuge area

[Image: GN_Cm1rX0AA5EtY?format=jpg&name=small]

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They may have found the crash site on a mountainside from the air, but rescue crew is still struggling to reach it on foot. It's a very rugged location.

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[Yazata]

There weren't any survivors

https://x.com/FarsNews_Agency/status/179...4815473958

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[C C]

Iranians celebrate death of President Ebrahim Raisi
https://youtu.be/G2dYlAMX6gY

INTRO: Mersedeh Shahinkar and Sima Moradbeigi, protesters who lost eyes and limbs to the country’s strict police, filmed themselves dancing after Ebrahim Raisi was confirmed dead in a helicopter crash.

They were joined by the daughters of Minoo Majidi, who raised a glass in memory of their mother who was beaten to death by the Iranian morality police.

A mother whose son was put to death in Iran in the last few days was also pictured dancing with her daughter.

And fireworks lit up the night sky over Tehran as news of Raisi’s death spread.

Raisi was a religious hardliner known as the ‘Butcher of Tehran’ for his role in executing tens of thousands of student demonstrators in the 1980s.

He was a favourite of the religious mullahs who rule Iran with an iron fist, but far less beloved by the people he repressed.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/G2dYlAMX6gY

[Yazata]

Within the last day the Israeli airforce conducted an air strike against a home in a small Lebanese village near the Syrian border in eastern Lebanon.

From the beginning it was clear that there was something different about this. Many ambulances rushed to the scene and hospitals were placed on alert. Hezbollah's response has been over the top, firing hundreds of rockets into northern Israel. Most of the rockets seem to have missed populated places, but smoke plumes from fires are visible all over northern Galilee.

So it seemed clear that a high value target had been hit in that house and Hezbollah was all stirred up. All that Israel will say is that the house was the scene of a meeting where a number of top Hezbollah commanders were gathered.

Now Egyptian sources are saying that their intelligence indicates that one of those who died in the air strike was the de facto leader of Hezbollah, Hashim Safi Al Din, the head of Hezbollah's executive council.

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