Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari has just held a press conference at Nevatim airbase. The base was struck by four Iranian Medium-range Ballistic Missiles that cratered some runways but caused no casualties. Nevatim is again fully operational.

Israel has reopened its airspace to commercial traffic. But many airlines have halted flights in and out of Israel out of caution.

Iran has closed its airspace over western Iran and announced a level-3 alert (the highest of three levels).

Israeli TV is reporting that Prime Minister Netenyahu has refused to take phone calls from several unnamed foreign leaders who don't want Israel to take any military action.

Israeli TV is reporting that 66% of Israeli voters favor military retaliation, 25% are opposed and 9% don't know.

The US is rushing brand new laser anti-drone systems to US forces in the middle east. There's been lots of R&D on these, but I was unaware there was anything ready for operational use and available in suitable numbers.

There are reports of unusual USAF aircraft movements at Altus AFB in Oklahoma, transport and refueling aircraft. 14 planes flew out headed northwest (to pick up the anti-drone systems?)

The US is the Great Satan after all. Israel is just the Little Satan.

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Update: News is all over the place and not always consistant.

It now appears that the broad outline of a plan has been agreed upon by the Israeli War Cabinet. What remains to be worked out is the many details of how it will look and how it will work. Talk is that the Israeli Air Force will feature prominently.

So it appears to me that they will be 'going big'. Unclear when it will happen, but probably within days. Israel clearly fears that international pressure might prevent them from doing anything if they wait. So they feel as if they have a short window within to act. But they don't want to charge off half-cocked, either.

A "US official" told Al Jazeera to expect strikes deep into Iran.

This might not all be totally accurate and Israel might be playing head-games with Tehran. They like to keep things ambiguous. Netanyahu said it himself when he told Israeli media: "We will respond to Iran, but we need to do it wisely and not from the gut. They need to be under stress like they made us under stress."

nsNS

[Syne]

Stressing Iran sounds like targeting leadership, on top of nuclear capabilities which should be a given for Israel.

[Yazata]

The chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says he is concerned the Israelis will attack Iran's nuclear weapons sites

I hope that they do, and that they are effective in doing it. I'll be 100% cheering for the Israelis on that score. (Of course I'm just one of the Great Satan's demons.)

That being said, it's widely believed that Iran already has a small number of low-yield atomic bombs, or at least the ability to assemble a few fairly quickly. (They clearly could construct "dirty bombs".) An attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear program might be perceived as enough of a threat to the regime that they would try to use them. Even if the US doesn't participate in the attack (we probably won't) we could end up a target as well.

If Iran detonates atom bombs on Tel Aviv, Haifa and Beersheva (they probably wouldn't nuke Jerusalem) Israel would launch a nuclear counterstrike on 10 or 20 Iranian targets including Tehran. So there's a not insignificant danger of a regional nuclear war breaking out.

There's a lot of risk in coming days.

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[Syne]

Yeah, the real danger is if Iran has already disseminated dirty bombs to its terrorist proxies, as a backup plan for any retaliation.

But I can't see that Israel really has a choice. They have to take out any nuclear capabilities of an emboldened Iran. At this point, I'm not sure what would be a sufficient deterrent for Iran and its proxies. Leveling Tehran and their nuclear facilities might. But that could just fuel the hatred. I'm starting to think that the deterrent may need to be much more severe. Israel really needs to put the fear of God into all of its neighbors. There's very few ways to do that decisively.

[Yazata]

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[Yazata]

The Iranians are playing head-games too!

The chairman of the Iranian parliament security committee told Iranian reporters that Iran is prepared to use "a weapon it has never used before".

[Yazata]

Another War Cabinet meeting has concluded. Apparently news is roughly the same as yesterday. The biggest new piece of information is talk in the Israeli media about disagreements on timing.

The majority faction, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, want to act as quickly as possible. A minority faction, led by Defense minister Yoav Gallant and Minister without Portfolio Benny Gantz, want to hold off until a regional coalition can be formed.

There seems to be general agreement on an Air Force led plan to go big. (I'm guessing against Iran's nuclear facilities.) But there seems to be some hope in some minds that countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE can be talked into participating (since they fear a nuclear Iran).

[C C]

Just for the record:

3 days ago, protestors in Toronto cheering the news that Iran had launched drones at Israel...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1779246864379826299

Is there anyone in the streets protesting the Uyghur genocide, which in recent weeks or months Wikipedia politically renamed "Persecution of Uyghurs"? And are there activists aroused about the other ones that Genocide Watch keeps an eye on?

No? Just when the Jews are up to something...?

[Zinjanthropos]

Just for the record:

3 days ago, protestors in Toronto cheering the news that Iran had launched drones at Israel...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1779246864379826299

Is there anyone in the streets protesting the Uyghur genocide, which in recent weeks or months Wikipedia politically renamed "Persecution of Uyghurs"? And are there activists aroused about the other ones that Genocide Watch keeps an eye on?

No? Just when the Jews are up to something...?

We have our share of losers too. Why do they look like white women in costume?

[C C]

Just for the record:

3 days ago, protestors in Toronto cheering the news that Iran had launched drones at Israel...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1779246864379826299

Is there anyone in the streets protesting the Uyghur genocide, which in recent weeks or months Wikipedia politically renamed "Persecution of Uyghurs"? And are there activists aroused about the other ones that Genocide Watch keeps an eye on?

No? Just when the Jews are up to something...?

We have our share of losers too. Why do they look like white women in costume?

Segments of MENA populations are sometimes blonde, olive-skinned or yet lighter, in color.

Notice in the video that it is Israel that is portrayed as the terrorist -- not just because of Gaza, but the many strikes/bombings they have carried out over the years and decades on Lebanon and neighboring countries. The gist is apparently that any response of Israel to assaults by "freedom-fighter" organizations and to take out terrorist locations, is groundless. Since Israel is, from their perspective, an invasive example of Western colonization and oppression which should not be there to begin with.

There actually are occasional examples of Uyghurs (and even ex-pat Han Chinese) protesting the persecution of Uyghurs in China. But this seems to have received less media attention over time (and outrage on campuses) compared to when the Israeli Jews "dastardly" Israeli government is active.

Perhaps similar with respect to hotspots that Genocide Watch keeps an eye on, in the past and in the future. Those concerns (when they arise) are addressed by governments, news agencies, and experts -- but again, the vitriol may appear anemic in public squares, educational grounds, and social communication contexts when contrasted to the contingent opportunities emerging for new antisemitism condemning Israel.