Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Syne]

Just need to carpet bomb the origins of those missiles. Either they're terrorists or they're harboring terrorists.

[Yazata]

https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1765497688710173116

CENTCOM photo

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[Yazata]

Things have been relatively quiet in Gaza for the last month, largely because of heavy US pressure to prevent Israel from entering the last Hamas strongholds in Rafah and in the central Gaza strip.

Instead, the US has concocted some plan to build a wharf on the Gaza beach for unloading international relief supplies. Critics are saying, "The US Army in Gaza, what could possibly go wrong??"

Meanwhile the Israelis are devoting themselves to searching the areas they hold for arms caches, rocket workshops and tunnels.

The biggest recent news is that yesterday Iraqi Shiite militias launched Iranian-made drones at Israel's southernmost port of Eilat and succeeded in hitting an Israeli navy facility there. (Damage was minor but they just missed an Israeli warship.)

So today Israel answered by launching a powerful airstrike against the Iranian embassy in Damascus Syria. They didn't hit the main embassy building but rather a smaller building on the grounds. It was completely flattened.

Inside were what are said to have been seven top Iranian commanders from the Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (the IRGC foreign special operations branch that supports all the many Iranian proxy forces like Hamas, the many Iraqi Shi'ite militias, Hezbollah and the Houthis). They included

Gen. Mohammed Zahedi (Commander, Syria & Lebanon)
Gen. Hossein Aminullah (Chief of General Staff, Syria & Lebanon)
Gen. Haj Rahimi (Commander, Palestine)

The Iranian embassy

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This is Zahedi.

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Subsequent to the embassy attack, Iran announced at the United Nations that they reserve the right to retaliate for what they describe as a "terrorist" attack on their embassy. Iraqi Shi'ite militias are less restrained in their rhetoric and are saying that "Hell" will be unleashed on Israel.

Meanwhile Iran sent a message to the United States through Swiss intermediaries regarding what Iran says is the United States “Role in the Illegal Israeli Attack today on the Iranian Embassy in the Syrian Capital of Damascus.”

[Yazata]

Israeli intelligence is detecting signs that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is preparing a massive rocket attack against Israel by proxies from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

There may or may not be missiles launched by the IRGC from Iran itself, though Iran is reportedly concerned about possible Israeli counterstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites. Tehran apparently wants to exert maximum force against Israel, just short of triggering all-out Iran-Israel warfare.

If a full scale Israel-Iran war broke out, it is no longer certain that the US would intervene on Israel's side. A few months ago, when the US was moving ships to the eastern Mediterranean, American support for Israel was unquestioned. But given how a significant fraction of the democrats' left base has come out as pro-Hamas, it's much less clear what the very partisan American leadership will do, with a presidential election coming in seven months.

So the Iranians might sense a window of opportunity right now, before Trump's very possible election.

But nevertheless, I'd wager that US photographic and communications intercept spy satellites are very active right now.

The Israeli health ministry has instructed all Israeli hospitals to prepare for a mass casualty event, to be fully staffed and to have all off-duty staff on call. Schools in Jerusalem are going to virtual learning.

So while nobody is sure what's going to happen, tension is increasing.

[Yazata]

People might want to go fill up their cars' gas tanks today, because there's the possibility that the price of oil might rise dramatically if things get nasty between Iran and Israel.

Lots of internet speculation that pro-Iranian militants might attack an Israeli embassy somewhere as revenge for the attack on the Iranian embassy. The Israelis appear to be thinking the same thing because they have put all of their embassies worldwide on alert and have temporarily evacuated a number of them.

Consensus seems to be that whatever is going to happen will happen on or before April 10, when Ramadan ends.

[Yazata]

Events this weekend include former democratic party house speaker Pelosi is calling for America to cut off military assistance to Israel.

Israel still hasn't entered Rafah, the last large urban area in Gaza controlled by Hamas. It's believed that the Biden administration has told Israel that if they do, their alliance with America will be in danger.

(The American "democratic" party appears to have gone full pro-terrorist.)

And yesterday, Israel withdrew about 2/3'ds of their forces in Gaza. They seem to have pulled out of Khan Yunis entirely, allowing what's left of Hamas to return.

I suspect that a big part of the reason for the Israeli withdrawl was that Israel is redeploying its forces to fight off Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy forces in case war with Iran erupts. Israel is moving lots of armored vehicles and army reservists to Galilee, in northern Israel.

But Israel is putting a smiley face on their Gaza withdrawl, by claiming that their Gaza operation has entered a planned new phase, consisting of building a buffer zone along the Gaza border.

[C C]

Events this weekend include former democratic party house speaker Pelosi is calling for America to cut off military assistance to Israel.

Israel still hasn't entered Rafah, the last large urban area in Gaza controlled by Hamas. It's believed that the Biden administration has told Israel that if they do, their alliance with America will be in danger.

(The American "democratic" party appears to have gone full pro-terrorist.) [...]

The Lord Protectors could declare war on Jews everywhere, but nine-tenths of that politically monolithic population group would still vote for them. Creating their own potential problems either soon or down the road in that respect is why it's difficult to feel sorry for whatever they might be complaining about in any particular year.

Israel is at least aware of its precarious survival situation, and probably tends to avoid supporting fashionable nonsense as much as possible. But it should never have allowed the Gaza Strip to have governing independence.

The folly of waiting on another country to step-in and take over doing that dirty-work for them, and thereby finally giving up on it. Even after this, no one else is going to volunteer long-term for managing that twisting GI tract maze of zealotry, resentment, anger and postcolonial grievances, grudges.

Israel needs to accept the responsibility and expenses again, and endure the perpetual global criticism of legislatively dominating and patrolling that stretch of land. There's no choice if they want to avoid yet another future episode of having blatant "genocide" charges projected upon them (in response to a massive terrorist attack/operation).

[Yazata]

Biden is now calling on Israel to announce a 6 to 8 week ceasefire and says the Israeli government will be making a big mistake if they don't.

It looks to me like Biden's inner circle have decided that the teen and early twenty-something segment of the democratic party activist base is firmly pro-Hamas, and that Biden can't win against Trump unless he keeps them loyal and energized. Hence all the student loan bailout promises. And Israel becomes expendable in the face of American domestic political necessity.

It's ironic that if anyone says the same about Ukraine, that American support should be conditional on Ukraine caving and asking Russia for a ceasefire and negotiations, that individual would be called a victim of Russian "disinformation" at best, and a Russian agent (subject to FBI investigation) at worst.

[Syne]

Anti-Semites are far more prevalent than anti-Ukrainians. Especially among Democrats.

[Yazata]

Lots of rumors are swirling on the internet right now.

People (including Marco Rubio and various establishment news outlets) are saying that an Iranian attack on Israel is immanent. People are saying that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases are on high alert. People are saying that Iran has closed its airspace. (This appears to be false and air traffic over Iran remains normal.)

It's unclear how seriously to take any of it.