Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Syne]

Knowing Biden, this is probably what he's most likely to do. (Kill some goats...pretend you've accomplished something.)

That's about all he's done against the Red Sea attacks.

Medium might be something like sinking a large part of the Iranian navy. Unclear how that would improve the situation going forward.

Or decimating every Iran-sponsored terrorist site outside of Iran, and restore Trump's "maximum pressure" sanctions. The latter crippled Iran economically, until Biden released billions to strike up Obama's Iran nuclear deal again... funding all the turmoil we're seeing in the Middle East now.

Going big would mean hitting all of Iran's known nuclear sites and the whole support infrastructure. This would mean full-scale war, but given that Iran will probably have nuclear weapons in a year which will change the whole equation, it might be the best longterm alternative. Israel supports this option and their very capable air force would probably be willing to take part.

Yeah, that's only a good deal for the US if we can outsource the most risky operations to Israel.


Whatever we do, it needs to be thorough and decisive. Neither a strong suit of Biden's administration.

[Yazata]

The delayed and perhaps-fatally telegraphed air campaign against Iranian-proxies in Iraq and Syria began about an hour ago.

The official statement:

"At 4:00 p.m. (EST) Feb. 02, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups. U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from United States. The airstrikes employed more than 125 precision munitions. The facilities that were struck included command and control operations, centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces."

https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1753534149523017922

US aircraft included two B-1B heavy bombers flying from bases in the US. Talk is that the initial targets included air defense sites that might threaten subsequent attacks.

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Cellphone video coming in from the town of Al Qa'im on the Syrian border in western Iraq with the sound of jet engines in the air and flashes of explosions in the distance.

More reports of airstrikes at nearby Al Mayadeen in Syria where the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps was said to have a base.

It's believed that some of the airstrikes were aimed at logistics, intended to disrupt the IRGC supply chain providing arms and ammunition to their proxy forces (who always seem to have an inexhausible supply of Iranian rockets and drones). Video from Al Qa'im shows rockets and other ammunition cooking off, indicating that one of the things hit was an arms warehouse.

It's interesting that Al Qa'im and Al Mayadeen were two of the last towns held by Islamic State (ISIS) as they collapsed.

[Yazata]

Despite CENTCOM saying 85 "targets" were hit, it seems that they only bombed seven different locations. Each location had multiple buildings and things like trucks that were hit, perhaps totalling 85. And it's increasingly apparent that after all the days of talk that an attack was coming, most of the Iranians had left these sites and were sheltering in civilian neighborhoods. They don't seem to have been able to move their arms and ammunition so quickly, so it the attacks today had any effect, hitting the militias' supply chain might have been it.

Many US military are saying (privately) that today's events look to have been a multimillion dollar fireworks show that will have little lasting effect. They don't expect attacks on anyone suspected of supporting Israel will slow down.

That being said, the Pentagon has gone to great lengths to say that these attacks will unfold for days, and what we saw today was just the opening act.

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While this was happening, the Israeli Air Force conducted air strikes on sites in the outskirts of Damascus Syria, said to be associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

And F-16's from the Jordanian Air Force joined the US Air Force in today's air strikes.

While the US Air Force was pummeling the IRGC in Eastern Syria and Western Iraq, the US Navy continued airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen.

[Yazata]

Lots happening in Baghdad Iraq today:

First there appears to have been a US drone strike inside the city of Baghdad targeting two of the top commanders of Kataib Hezbollah, one of the leading Iranian proxy militias in Iraq which has been attacking US forces. They were traveling in a car on a city street that was hit by a Hellfire missile launched from a Predator drone. Confirmed that three people in the car were killed, apparently the two commanders (Abu Baqir Al-Saadi and Arkan Al-Alawi) and a third individual who may have been their driver.

CENTCOM just put out a statement.

"At 9:30 p.m. (Baghdad Time) February 7, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on U.S. service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on U.S. forces in the region. There are no indications of collateral damage or civilian casualties at this time."

https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1755339541173723294

Calls have gone out over Iranian-associated Arabic language Telegram channels calling on supporters to gather en-masse and to storm the US embassy in Baghdad's "Green Zone". Sirens are sounding in the Green Zone and Iraqi security forces have reportedly blocked all the roads leading to the Zone.

Edit - The mobs of militants storming the US Embassy in Baghdad didn't happen.

[Yazata]

The US Central Command is reporting that a Belize-flagged British-owned bulk carrier, the M/V Rubymar, was attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea on Feb 18 and seriously damaged. It is unable to proceed and is anchored, but is slowly taking on water. The ship's leaking fuel has created an 18 mile oil slick and the ship is loaded with 41,000 tons of fertilizer. Hopefully whatever environmental damage results will mostly impact the Yemeni coastline.

No word on the fate of the crew.

https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1761225931656704052

Planet Labs satellite photo showing the Rubymar and its oil slick

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[C C]

The US Central Command is reporting that a Belize-flagged British-owned bulk carrier, the M/V Rubymar, was attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea on Feb 18 and seriously damaged. It is unable to proceed and is anchored, but is slowly taking on water. The ship's leaking fuel has created an 18 mile oil slick and the ship is loaded with 41,000 tons of fertilizer. Hopefully whatever environmental damage results will mostly impact the Yemeni coastline.

No word on the fate of the crew.

https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1761225931656704052

Planet Labs satellite photo showing the Rubymar and its oil slick

[image -->] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHEhmDua0AAe...me=900x900

Given how Muslim-Americans are now considered one of the Democratic Party's social-justice mascots (i.e., there's all that concern about Biden losing votes due to his pro-Israel stance)...

Will the environmentalists come out of the woodwork on this one, since their protests might conflict with or detract from the pro-Palestinian demonstrations? Or will they stay mute?

If they do, I expect they'll blame the incident/disaster entirely on the West, to circumvent that kind of confusing mire. The Houthi movement (as we all know) consists of freedom fighters (any collateral damage results from a good cause).

US warns of environmental disaster from cargo ship hit by Huthi rebels
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-environmen...-huthi.htm

[Yazata]

The German frigate Hessen (F221), newly arrived in the southern Red Sea as part of the EU's Operation Aspides, reports that it came under attack by two "hostile aerial targets" and shot both of them down.

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[Yazata]

The German frigate Hessen (F221), newly arrived in the southern Red Sea as part of the EU's Operation Aspides, reports that it came under attack by two "hostile aerial targets" and shot both of them down.

Both Bild and Spiegel are reporting that the Hessen locked onto a US MQ-9A "Reaper" drone and fired two missiles, but both missiles "failed" and fell into the sea.

Unclear if this is the same incident reported above or a separate incident.

The missiles the Germans fired are reported to have been US made SM-2 'Standard' missiles, which have been used by the US Navy's Arleigh Burke class destroyers against Houthi drones and missiles with great success. They are very good missiles used by multiple allied navies (Australia, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Denmark, Poland, Spain...) So observers are saying that it's highly unlikely that both missiles would fail like that and that it's more likely that the ship recognized its error and sent an abort/destruct command to stop the missiles after they were launched.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschla...c491fbf770

[Yazata]

Reports are coming in that the Barbados-Flagged and U.S-Owned Cargo Ship M/V True Confidence was attacked by anti-ship guided missiles in the Gulf of Aden, resulting in the deaths of two crewmen and injuries to six more. These are believed to be the first maritime fatalities since the Houthi attacks on international shipping began.

My own opinion is that perhaps it's FAFO time, fuck-around-and-find-out.

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[Yazata]

Update: The number of fatalities has been increased to three and four of the six injured are said to be severe injuries. The surviving crew has abandoned ship and the True Confidence is said to be sinking.