Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

The big news today is the launch of several Iranian ballistic missiles by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps from inside Iran, targeting the vicinity of the US consulate in Erbil Iraq, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.

There was no damage to the US consulate and no injuries to Americans.

Here is what the Iranian missile attack hit - it was a palatial estate belonging to Kurdish real-estate tycoon Peshraw Dizayee. the CEO of something called Empire World

https://www.empireworld.com/

Dizayee and his whole family was killed, including his 11 month old daughter Xina. His palace was obliterated.

The Iranians claim that he was an Israeli Mossad secret agent.

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[Syne]

Could just be an excuse to look tough, with the overwhelming majority of Iran Shia simply targeting the overwhelming majority of Kurdish Sunni.
Another proxy war that serves their proxy war with the US.

[Yazata]

The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency says that his agency believes that Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for "several" nuclear weapons.

[Yazata]

Lots of activity in the last week.

The Houthis have continued attacking shipping, and succeeded in lighting a British owned, Indian crewed and Marshall Islands flagged tanker filled with a cargo of naphtha on fire. The crew of 22 weren't injured, but were unable to put out the fire by themselves. Luckily a US destroyer (the ubiquitous USS Carney), a French frigate and an Indian frigate all responded and the fire was put out. The tanker was judged to still be seaworthy and continued on its voyage to Singapore.

The US responded to the ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks by launching another large attack of carrier-based jets from the Eisenhower, supported once again by two RAF jets from distant Cyprus. Again dozens of Houthi sites were hit.

In Gaza, the Israelis have largely taken control of Khan Yunis, except for one Hamas stronghold neighborhood. This leaves Rafah on the Egyptian border the only large urban area still under Hamas control. Conditions there are said to be very bad, since hundreds of thousands of civilians from elsewhere in the Gaza Strip have fled there and are sleeping in the open with no food and water. The United nations are trucking in food and bottled water from Egypt, but the trucks are immediately looted as soon as they cross. There are no more Hamas police on the streets and it's pure 'survival-of-the-fittest'.

Meanwhile, the Israelis say that a few shops in Israeli controlled Gaza city have reopened, those that weren't blown up in the fighting or looted.

And just today, pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq attacked across the border into Jordan, hitting a US "patrol base" there with drones. The Central Command reports 3 dead Americans and 25 American wounded. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, the American response is.

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Reports that Israel has informed Egypt that the Israeli army will soon begin operations in Rafah near the Egyptian border.

(Map by Warmapper.org)

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[stryder]

Due to the nature of how things are progressing, I had to rename the thread as it implies its all Israel-Gaza based.

The problem is the weak responses such as financial sanctions has made it look like the West won't hit bad like it use to.

Russia had been stirring the pot on a global scale by obliging their "Axis of tyrants" into pushing mutliple fronts which causes resources to be stretched of those dealing with them, especially if those resources have suffered for years over funding. Iran (one of the Axis) being the main influencer in this instance in regards to Middle Eastern issues.

In any event the title shouldn't imply it's all Israel related, theres far more dynamics at play.

[Yazata]

Satellite photo of "tower 22", the US outpost in the northeast corner of Jordan that apparently provides communications, aviation and logistic support to US anti-ISIS patrols in eastern Syria. The reason why US casualties were so high is because the Iranian-made drone hit a tent area where Americans were sleeping.

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[Yazata]

Three USAF KC-135 aerial refueling tankers have departed March Air Reserve base east of Los Angeles, headed northeast across Colorado, the Great Lakes, eastern Canada on their way to Europe. Accompanying them are three USAF C-17 transports. It's unknown where two of the C-17's originated, but one comes from Tampa FL, where the headquarters of both the US Central Command and the US Special Operations Command are located.

It's unknown what the significance of this is. There may be more aircraft movements happening as well that are unreported at this point. (The fact that these particular aircraft are flying with their transponders on suggests that they want to be seen.)

There are reports that Iranian air defenses are on alert in anticipation of something.

[Yazata]

While the death toll remains at three (all Army reservists from Georgia), the number of wounded at the 'Tower 22' patrol base has risen to "over 40". Three of those were critically injured and have been airlifted to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, the largest US military hospital outside the US.

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Talk on the internet by people who are usually fairly well-informed is that 'Tower 22' was equipped with anti-drone defenses that have proven relatively effective in previous attacks in Iraq and Syria (many attacks, but no US fatalities). The reason why they didn't work here was supposedly that some US drones were expected back about the same time and the operators of the defensive system thought the enemy drones were the US drones. Which suggests that the US drones need a better IFF (identification friend-or-foe) encrypted transponders system.

[Syne]

I read that the Iran-backed drone was closely following an incoming US drone. If so, drone pilots need to start doing Crazy Ivans in an attempt to separate drone signatures. Or at the very least, check their own six on approach.

Iran is now claiming they had nothing to do with the attack, but I'll only believe it if we can get footage of them telling their own people so. Iran is well-known for saying one thing to the world and the truth to their own people.

[Yazata]

Iran is now claiming they had nothing to do with the attack, but I'll only believe it if we can get footage of them telling their own people so. Iran is well-known for saying one thing to the world and the truth to their own people.

If Iran had nothing to do with it, where did these pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias get Iranian drones??

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Whether Biden is up to the task or not, some major decisions need to be made.

There's a whole range of options from small to big.

Smallest would be some airstrikes on sites in Iraq associated with the militias. Knowing Biden, this is probably what he's most likely to do. (Kill some goats...pretend you've accomplished something.)

Medium might be something like sinking a large part of the Iranian navy. Unclear how that would improve the situation going forward.

Going big would mean hitting all of Iran's known nuclear sites and the whole support infrastructure. This would mean full-scale war, but given that Iran will probably have nuclear weapons in a year which will change the whole equation, it might be the best longterm alternative. Israel supports this option and their very capable air force would probably be willing to take part.

Storm clouds over the White House.

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