Is Elon Musk's "Starlink" doomed to only modest success? (satellite community)

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Canada’s anti-Musk pivot hits Starlink’s second-biggest market
https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/us-c....500053857

EXCERPTS: Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Tuesday responded to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs by ripping up the Canadian province’s contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink. “It’s done; it’s gone,” Ford said of the deal.

Consumers who have quickly grown to rely on the SpaceX satellite network may not be willing to follow suit.

Starlink flies more than 7,000 satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO) serving some 5 million subscribers, and Canada is the company’s largest market outside of the US.

Serving swaths of remote locations that traditional internet services don’t reach, the popular service poses a dilemma for patriotic Canadians who want to boycott American goods over widespread anger against Trump and his closest adviser, Musk.

Take Louise Dumayne, a Yukon-based writer who posted a rallying call to shun US companies on her Facebook page. Everything that is, except Starlink. Dumayne — who lives close to the Klondike gold rush town of Dawson City, about 445 kilometers (277 miles) by car from the Arctic Circle — said reliable internet service from Starlink has boosted her husband’s income by as much as 40 per cent.

“I feel conflicted,” she said on a video call (via Starlink) from her wooden cabin, where a caribou hide hangs on the wall. Starlink is “really robust” and works despite temperatures lower than minus 40C (minus 40F), she said.

After the US imposed 25 per cent tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican imports on March 4, and with Trump threatening tariffs on more countries, consumers around the world may be facing similar conflicts.

Ford isn’t the only Canadian politician targeting SpaceX. British Columbia’s Premier David Eby in early February said his province was no longer considering a deal with Starlink that had been in the works. R.J. Simpson, the premier of the Northwest Territories, on Tuesday said his government is looking at alternatives, too.

Businessman Gord Fry has first-hand experience of the backlash. The owner of Muskoka Starlink, a company that installs equipment in an area two hours from Toronto by car, Fry has received online and in-person abuse due to the name on his van.

He’s turned off public comments for Facebook ads “to stop the political rants,” said Fry. “The only thing that’s holding Starlink back regarding further and faster advancements through Canada is a negative public opinion that’s being caused by Elon Musk shooting his mouth off, and certainly Trump.”

Still, for all the anger, Starlink has a quasi-monopoly on reliable and affordable LEO internet. That leaves few options for people who want to distance themselves from Musk.

“What is the alternative? There’s not much alternative,” said Quebec’s minister of cybersecurity and digital technology Gilles Bélange... (MORE - missing details)

[Yazata]

In Alaska, far from any cell service

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[Yazata]

Canada’s anti-Musk pivot hits Starlink’s second-biggest market
https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/us-c....500053857

EXCERPTS: Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Tuesday responded to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs by ripping up the Canadian province’s contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink. “It’s done; it’s gone,” Ford said of the deal...

Ford isn’t the only Canadian politician targeting SpaceX. British Columbia’s Premier David Eby in early February said his province was no longer considering a deal with Starlink that had been in the works. R.J. Simpson, the premier of the Northwest Territories, on Tuesday said his government is looking at alternatives, too...

Starlink mostly markets to households. Canadian Starlink service would mostly be small individual contracts to consumers.

So I'm not sure what kind of contracts Ontario and BC are talking about. Contracts with the provincial governments for government communications with remote areas?

Ontario really needs reliable broadband communication with largely uninhabited northwest Ontario. How are they going to get it without Starlink?

My feeling is that these Canadian provincial government contracts are a small part of Starlink's worldwide business. They are probably just a fraction of Starlink's Canadian business. So these Canadian provinces probably need Starlink service more than Starlink needs their business.

[Yazata]

SpaceX announced that 4.2% of Australian homes now use Starlink, up from 3% just seven months ago.

[Yazata]

SpaceX generated $11.8 billion in revenue in 2024 from Starlink, exceeding revenue from the company's space transportation division for the first time. Starlink reports continued growth worldwide in consumer broadband, government, maritime and aviation markets.

[Yazata]

Big news today is SpaceX asking the FCC for frequency allotments and authorization to operate Starlink as a GPS-style Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) system.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2025/05/fc...r-gps.html

https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/document/1051418495002/1

(Next Big Future) "SpaceX next-generation satellite Starlink systems that can deliver ubiquitous connectivity to millions of off-the-shelf consumer devices (direct to cellphones), along with widespread, affordable access to those devices, presents a unique, low-cost, high-reward opportunity to enhance the resilience of the PNT ecosystem without relying on government mandates or single points of failure."

SpaceX says that existing Starlink satellites can do it. The Starlink GPS system can operate independent of existing GPS satellites and military networks. It's already direct-to-cell capable, compatible with existing cell phones.(You might need an ap though.) And it can be done at no cost to the taxpayer! All that SpaceX requires is allocation of the necessary satellite frequencies.

It seems to me that from a military perspective, there are plusses and minuses:

Positives:

It would be almost unjammable. And it would be resilient, far more survivable than the existing GPS system which is vulnerable to opponents destroying GPS satellites with ASAT weapons. Starlink has thousands of satellites and the ability to launch rapidly at will, which would severely tax an opponent's ability to take down the system. And modern warfare is increasingly dependent on GPS.

Negatives:

Using Starlink as a GPS system could conceivably make advanced GPS targeting capabilities available to any country that wants them (every country). Up until now this capability, which enables precision drone/missile strikes and smart bombs, has been available only to a select group of high-tech countries (NATO, Russia, China etc.) Unless some kind of safeguards are built in (they probably would be, just as they are with civilian applications of existing military GPS) every two-bit African warlord and crazy terrorist could gain the same precision-strike capability.

[Yazata]

Starlink has passed 5 million users in 125 countries! That's 25% growth just since September 2024, when it hit 4 million.

https://x.com/Starlink/status/1895559922991153367

Starlink has hit seven million users in approximately 150 countries!

https://x.com/Starlink/status/1960867340951937239

Thats 40% growth in six months!! 75% in the last year!

An eventual 700 million isn't out of the range of possibility as they improve the system and bring down its cost. (The cost of the hardware and the data subscription already vary country by country, depending on the country's per capita wealth.)

SpaceX already makes more revenue from Starlink than from launching rockets. It's basically what pays for the Starship program and ultimately for human spaceflights to the Moon and Mars. All without any taxpayer funding.

Some countries like China, Iran and North Korea are out for the foreseeable future. India remains the biggest market left to enter. (It's been strangely reluctant to approve Starlink, despite PM Modi cozying up to Elon in hopes of Tesla deals.)

[Yazata]

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[Yazata]

SpaceX says:

https://www.spacex.com/updates#dtc-gen2-spectrum

(Highlighting by me)

"SpaceX has entered into a purchase agreement with EchoStar for 50 MHz of exclusive S-band spectrum in the US as well as global Mobile Satellite Service (MSS) spectrum licenses. This agreement will enable us to develop and deploy our next generation Starlink Direct to Cell constellation which will be capable of providing broadband service to cell phones globally...

...Building the constellation to its present form with its unique regenerative architecture involved designing, manufacturing, launching and operating cell towers in space, including development of the system's eNodeB payload, phased array antennas, and core network, which enables network integration similar to a standard roaming partner. The service works with existing LTE phones wherever you can see the sky – no changes to hardware, firmware, or special apps are required.

At the same time, the Starlink team has been working with leading device manufacturers and application developers to enhance the services provided over the satellite network. In addition to basic and multimedia messaging, customers on the Starlink Direct to Cell network now have access to apps ranging from social media and messaging platforms like X and WhatsApp to navigation and outdoor essentials like Google Maps, AllTrails, and AccuWeather. Starlink Direct to Cell is also enabling Internet of Things (IoT) connections in remote areas.

These capabilities have been developed in partnership with Mobile Network Operators, including T-Mobile in the United States, Optus and Telstra in Australia, Rogers in Canada, One New Zealand in New Zealand, KDDI in Japan, Salt in Switzerland, Entel in Chile and Peru, and Kyivstar in Ukraine (as well as several more unannounced partnerships) to connect millions of people around the world in places that have never had cellular connectivity before, and even during emergencies when terrestrial systems are impacted.

Following hurricanes, severe flooding and wildfires in the United States, Starlink Direct to Cell powered life-saving connectivity. In those events alone, more than 1.5 million people were able to communicate with Direct to Cell service when terrestrial networks were down, millions of SMS messages were sent and received, and hundreds of Wireless Emergency Alerts that otherwise would not have been received were successfully delivered...

Through the agreement with EchoStar, SpaceX will purchase EchoStar’s 50 MHz S-band spectrum in the US (bands known as AWS-4 and PCS-H) as well as its global MSS spectrum licenses. Exclusive access to this spectrum, along with use of optimized 5G protocols designed for satellite connectivity, will enable a step change in performance for Starlink Direct to Cell...

...With the world’s most advanced phased arrays, the wider bandwidth operations enabled by this spectrum purchase, and optimized 5G protocols, the system will support an overall capacity increase of more than 100x the first generation Starlink Direct to Cell system. In most environments, this will enable full 5G cellular connectivity with a comparable experience to current terrestrial LTE service...

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So SpaceX is definitely committed to building Starlink to the point that it rivals terrestrial 5G LTE cell service anywhere on the Earth's surface. Just pull out your phone wherever you are (Nunavut, the Amazon jungle, even the middle of the ocean) and you have 5G service! That's the goal, anyway.

The dream of Starlink becoming the world's largest telecommunications company looks a little more realistic today. (The vision is to use Starlink to fund the human exploration of the Solar System.)

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Scott Manley notes:

https://x.com/DJSnM/status/1965115753436512330

"One interesting thing I noticed in the EchoStar/SpaceX deal is priced at $17 billion, but half of that is in SpaceX stock valued at $212 per share, putting the valuation of SpaceX at about $400 billion" (It was about $350 billion in January.)

So SpaceX is spending more for this spectrum purchase than they've spent on the Starship program so far. But half of that price is being paid by giving EchoStar an ownership stake in SpaceX. (About 2%, looks like.)

This looks like an extraordinarily good deal for EchoStar. Their current valuation (pre-deal) is $22.66 billion. So not only are they getting an $8.5 billion cash injection, but also assuming that SpaceX has the potential to grow 5x in the coming decade (see above), EchoStar's 2% stake could grow to $40+ billion! So simply by hitching their star to SpaceX, EchoStar has built in growth prospects that they might not have otherwise had.

What SpaceX gets is additional broadband spectrum that they own the rights to and aren't just leasing from T-Mobile. That puts them closer to being a cell-phone service provider in their own right.

[Yazata]

Starlink now has 8 million users. That's up from 4 million in September 2024 and seven million on August 27, 2025. Up a million in a little more than two months! Growth continues to accelerate like a rocket! (Sorry about that Slate magazine doomsters...)

While both China and Russia don't allow Starlink, Mongolia nestled between them does.

Starlink antennas on Mongol yurts!

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