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Full Version: Is Elon Musk's "Starlink" doomed to only modest success? (satellite community)
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https://slate.com/technology/2022/05/sta...tonga.html

EXCERPT: . . . The story of Tonga’s internet access feels like a bit of a pattern for Starlink: bold ambition but only modest success. On Sunday’s episode of What Next: TBD, I spoke with Meaghan Tobin, a reporter for the website Rest of World, about whether Starlink can ever fulfill its promise of connecting the world, especially places left behind by traditional internet. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.

[...] In June 2021, Elon Musk said that Starlink would be a reimagining of the internet and would get to the parts of the world that are hard to reach. At the Mobile World Congress, he said they should have global connectivity everywhere except the by August 2021. At the time, how was that promise received?

People were really excited about it. This was seen as a revolution in connectivity—it was going to finally solve issues of internet access all over the world. And it also made his competitors really nervous. There was a big push to get more of these satellites launched and get more funding into this type of technology as fast as possible. But like a lot of things that Elon boasts about, it’s not quite as easily executed in practice.

Here we are not quite a year out from that speech. Where would you say the connectivity is now? Was that global promise delivered on?

As of now, it absolutely hasn’t been. Recent data from Cloudflare and also self-reported data to Reddit show that 98 percent of Starlink users are located in the West. They’re in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. There are some notable exceptions: Service was made available in Chile. But for the most part, users are overwhelmingly in Canada and the United States and Europe. And that’s not to say that there aren’t people in rural parts of these countries that really need internet access. Starlink is definitely solving a problem for those people. But in terms of delivering on the promise of connecting the entire globe, that’s absolutely not happening. That was one of the things that I was really interested in my reporting, to talk to people in India, who had been on the wait list and expected to receive Starlink technology this month.

You talked to one entrepreneur in India’s Assam state, who preordered Starlink, thinking it might revolutionize his business. He runs an adventure tourism startup and imagined that the satellite internet would allow him to attract digital nomads who could work from the area. He and his business partner also thought they could give their neighbors a boost.

They were expecting that they could use their Starlink terminal to provide connectivity for the area that they’re in. They didn’t just want it for their own business or their own customers. They also figured like, “Hey, kids in the neighborhood could come by and use the internet.”

But so far it hasn’t worked out. In India, regulators have yet to license Starlink. And in January the government ordered the company to refund anyone who had already paid for the service, which costs about $600 to set up and $110 per month. It’s also worth noting that India’s largest telecom company has a direct stake in OneWeb, one of Starlink’s competitors. But Starlink has faced delays in other places, too. The expected service date in South Africa was pushed from 2022 to 2023, with no explanation. And the company is also contending with the global semiconductor shortage.

In concept, it seems like Starlink, or SpaceX, is really the right company to execute on this internet-beamed-from-space idea. They have a great track record of getting objects into space. But it’s not actually as simple as that on the ground. There are a lot of challenges from governments and lobbyists and entrench interests and supply chains that are a lot harder to control.

I feel like we should note that Starlink has had one incredibly high-profile, good experience—in Ukraine. Can you tell that story?

Absolutely. Right after the Russians invaded Ukraine, the country’s minister of information technology [Mykhailo Federov] tweeted Elon, saying basically “Can you send in Starlink? Russia is here, and we’re worried about our internet communications.” And within days, there was a delivery of Starlink terminals to the country and Starlink service was running. I think it was within four days. So, on the surface, that really seems like an incredibly quick turnaround time, incredible success. And it really has been extremely helpful to a number of people and essential services in the country... (MORE - missing details, rest of interview)
Starlink is doomed to "only modest success" because 1. It initially rolled out in the Western world? 2. Because governments in some cases are trying to restrict and regulate it? 3. Because Elon's early projections about how soon it will be ready were over-optimistic?

1. The author admits that Starlink has already been a godsend to individuals in remote rural areas of the US and Canada for whom high-speed internet was previously unavailable. (I've spoken to some rural Starlink users myself.) Point being that even if Starlink never rolled out in Africa or whereever, it would still be successfully serving a purpose here in the US and Canada. Whether that counts as "modest" is in the eye of the beholder, I guess. It might seem like a bigger deal in rural Montana or Saskatchewan than it does at Slate's offices in Brooklyn. Ukraine might disagree with the more pessimistic value judgments as the author notes.

But there's no reason to assume that Starlink won't become available worldwide in due course. Which brings us to the next two objections.

2. Government interference in some countries was always a given. Does anyone really believe that China would allow its people unfettered access to Starlink that would allow their computers to see past the Great Firewall of China? But that shouldn't be considered a defect of Starlink. (In the current Orwellian political climate it's the US that we should be worried about.)

3. And the fact that it's taking longer than initially projected doesn't imply that Starlink will only be modestly successful either. It's already very successfully shown that it works well and is ready to scale up. The author's disappointment merely implies that she never took account of the relativistic "Elon-time" time-dilation effect. (Take any of Elon's time projections and then multiply them by at least two to get a time projection in our reference-frame.)

That doesn't for a moment imply that the ideas won't work in the longer term, at least where governments permit them to work.

I think that these women might have made a better argument if they concentrated on Starlink's cash-flow and eventual break-even.The point being that even if it works in engineering terms, it might not work in business terms. But given Starlink's first-to-market position in this space, given its access to low-cost launches on used Falcon-9 boosters that have already paid for themselves launching other people's satellites, and given the world-wide interest that Starlink generates, my own guess is that Starlink has at least the potential of becoming the world's largest telecommunications company.

The day might be coming when Starlink spins off from SpaceX and goes public (while SpaceX remains privately held) and comes to dwarf even Tesla's trillion dollar market cap. That isn't certain by any means, but it isn't an unreasonable expectation either. If SpaceX retains a nice percentage of that newly issued Starlink stock, Starlink might become the cash-cow that funds Elon's space exploration plans. That's the hope, anyway.
I have it and I love it! We have another rural piece of property in the redwoods. It’s not continuous coverage because the trees block it at times, but if you have an emergency, you can get a call out, and you can download a movie almost instantaneously. It’s a game changer for me.
Officially a full-blown outlaw nation, wreaking havoc everywhere.
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As US blames Russia for KA-SAT hack, Starlink sees growing threat
https://spacenews.com/as-us-blames-russi...ng-threat/

INTRO: Elon Musk says Russian hackers are increasing efforts to take down SpaceX’s Starlink broadband service amid the war in Ukraine. “Starlink has resisted Russian cyberwar jamming and hacking attempts so far, but they’re ramping up their efforts,” Musk tweeted May 10.

Earlier that day, the United States formally blamed Russia for a late February cyberattack on Viasat’s KA-SAT satellite internet network.

“Today, in support of the European Union and other partners, the United States is sharing publicly its assessment that Russia launched cyber attacks in late February against commercial satellite communications networks to disrupt Ukrainian command and control during the invasion, and those actions had spillover impacts into other European countries,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said in a May 10 press statement.

Blinken said the Russian cyberattack “disabled very small aperture terminals in Ukraine and across Europe” including ”tens of thousands of terminals outside of Ukraine that, among other things, support wind turbines and provide Internet services to private citizens.”

Some KA-SAT customers have had to replace modems to continue using the network, which Viasat says is now stabilized... (MORE - details)
Here's the current Starlink availability map, showing where Starlink is up and running now and where and when it is expected to roll out other places.

https://www.starlink.com/map

It's very apparent that Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela and similar places don't have any projected roll out date, probably because those governments won't allow it. (Though Russia and China won't allow it, Mongolia tucked between them is slated for service.) I was surprised to see that it still isn't available in large parts of the eastern United States and Canada (including southern Ontario) and large parts of California are without service, looks like. They say that service will expand into these areas in 2023. The most extensive US/Canada service right now looks to be in the Rockies and western plains (Dakotas, Saskatchewan etc.) There's currently no service in Alaska, Scandinavia or far northern Canada, though again they say Q1 2023. This is probably because the polar orbit Starlinks necessary to reach high latitudes aren't in yet. Hawaii has to wait until the end of 2022 for service. The big Australian cities seem to currently have service though far northern Australia has to wait with Indonesia and Southeast Asia until 2023.

There's no startup date for India, though they have a waitlist. This is apparently because of Indian government slowness in authorizing it, not due to any fault of Starlink. The same looks to be true of Pakistan. Sri Lanka next door to India is slated for 2023, as is all of the Middle East (except Syria) and just about all of Africa (all 2023 except nigeria which is late 2022). So the facts seem to be that Starlink is rolling out faster in parts of Africa than in parts of the United States. (So much for Slate's snarkiness about how Starlink is supposedly treating the rest of the world to second class status.)
(May 3, 2022 03:44 PM)C C Wrote: [ -> ]Here we are not quite a year out from that speech. Where would you say the connectivity is now? Was that global promise delivered on?

As of now, it absolutely hasn’t been. Recent data from Cloudflare and also self-reported data to Reddit show that 98 percent of Starlink users are located in the West. They’re in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. There are some notable exceptions: Service was made available in Chile. But for the most part, users are overwhelmingly in Canada and the United States and Europe.

The problem rolling out Starlink has typically been regulatory approvals in the various countries in which Starlink service is to be offered. And these approvals have been slower coming in some parts of the world than in Europe, North America and Australia. (Some parts of the world like China are unlikely to ever give regulatory approvals.)

The first two African countries to approve Starlink, Nigeria and Mozambique, just did so on May 27. (South Africa has yet to grant approval.)

India still hasn't granted approval though its expected to do so fairly soon and Starlink already has a waiting list there.

None of this is the fault of Starlink and none of it even suggests that Starlink is doomed to only modest success. Compare Starlink's global reach to AT&T, Sprint, Verizon or T-Mobile.

Starlink says that it is now licensed on all seven continents! So apparently Starlink made it to Antarctica before Africa. The reason for that is not that Starlink is "racist" or Western-Chauvinist, let alone that it's failing somehow. It's just that it's trying to conform to the laws of each country in which it operates. And some of these places are finding it hard to adjust to a radically new form of telecommunications like this.

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1530240089489412096
Elon Musk reveals details of next-generation Starlink satellites
https://gizmodo.com/spacex-elon-musk-sta...1848995490

INTRO: The next generation of Starlink satellites are going to be larger, and more powerful, designed to provide internet access to remote parts of the world, according to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. The space billionaire recently discussed the details of the Starlink Gen2 System on the popular YouTube show, Everyday Astronaut.

In the 32 minute clip, Musk reveals that SpaceX has already produced the first Starlink 2.0 satellite. The new generation satellite is 7 meters (22 feet) long and weighs about 1.25 tons (approximately 2,755 pounds or 1,250 kilograms). Starlink 1.0, by comparison, weighs about 573 pounds (260 kilograms). The extra weight accounts for a more effective satellite, according to Musk... (MORE - details)
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This link goes directly to the pertinent spot in the video (9:58 mark); leave it there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XP5k3ZzPf_0&t=568s
Elon Musk's New Second-Gen Starlink Satellites Are Too Big for Current Rockets
https://www.cnet.com/science/space/elon-...t-rockets/

EXCERPTS: Starlink, the satellite internet division of Elon Musk's rocket company SpaceX, has developed a second-generation of satellites for low-Earth orbit. But they're too big to launch for now.

The Gen2 satellite is considerably larger than the more than 2,500 Starlink satellites now orbiting 340 miles above the Earth's surface. Gen2 satellites are 22 feet long and weigh 2,755 pounds, the SpaceX CEO said late last week on the YouTube show Everyday Astronaut. By contrast, the first-generation satellites weigh 573 pounds, or about one-fifth as much as Gen2.

"A lot of people talk a lot about how many launches per year there are to orbit, but this is not really what matters. I think what really matters is what's the total useful payload to orbit per year," Musk said. "'Cause otherwise you could say if this were ocean ships, you'd be like comparing a dinghy to a supertanker."

To get the much heavier Gen2 satellites into orbit, SpaceX will have to get its Starship heavy-lift rocket ready. Starship is the most powerful rocket ever built. [...] The US Federal Aviation Administration is conducting an environmental review of the reusable Starship rocket ... the final report is coming in mid-June.

SpaceX's progress on Gen2 shows how much further along Starlink is when compared with its competitors. [...] Starlink has already brought high-speed internet for many rural communities out of reach of broadband. Starlink, with help from the US government, has been able to provide internet access to 150,000 Ukrainians in the midst of a war.

Demand is growing in different parts of the world for Starlink service... (MORE - missing details)
Ukraine says Elon Musk's Starlink has been 'very effective' in countering Russia
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-wa...sia-2022-6

EXCERPTS: . . . SpaceX says it has delivered 15,000 Starlink kits to Ukraine since late February. The devices provide the Ukrainian military with a resilient and reliable means of communication. Ukrainian troops have used them to coordinate counterattacks or call in artillery support, while Ukrainian civilians have used the system to stay in touch with loved ones inside and outside of the country.

Besieged Ukrainian troops in the Azovstal steelworks plant in Mariupol were only able to communicate with Kyiv and the world because they had a Starlink device. [...] There are other commercial satellite companies that provide similar services, but SpaceX has developed one of the most robust networks

[...] In occupied cities without access to Starlink, Russians have told civilians that Ukraine no longer existed as a country, but those tactics haven't been successful on a large scale because of Starlink, the Ukrainian leader said.

Ukrainians' access to Starlink has "totally destroyed" Russian President Vladimir Putin's information campaign, Brig. Gen. Steve Butow, director of the space portfolio at the Defense Innovation Unit, told Politico. Putin has "never, to this day, has been able to silence Zelenskyy," Butow said.

Ukraine's government requested Starlink in order to counter Russian cyberattacks against its own satellite communications [...] In a paper published in May, Chinese military researchers called for the development of "soft and hard kill methods" to disable or destroy the whole constellation of Starlink satellites in the event of a conflict... (MORE - missing details)
(Jun 14, 2022 06:29 AM)C C Wrote: [ -> ]Ukraine says Elon Musk's Starlink has been 'very effective' in countering Russia
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-wa...sia-2022-6

EXCERPTS: . . .
 In a paper published in May, Chinese military researchers called for the development of "soft and hard kill methods" to disable or destroy the whole constellation of Starlink satellites in the event of a conflict... (MORE - missing details)
Key passages in article:

"As those systems become more vital to military operations, militaries are also looking at how to disrupt them. In a paper published in May, Chinese military researchers called for the development of "soft and hard kill methods" to disable or destroy the whole constellation of Starlink satellites in the event of a conflict.

The researchers didn't describe specific means to counter Starlink, but said "the whole system" would need to be targeted, which "requires some low-cost, high-efficiency measures.""

Expanded on in an accompanying article:
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-ne...say-2022-5

The implication: Near Earth orbit space could become cluttered with debris from mass sat killing, to the point of being unusable again for a long time following any major conflict.
In the interim savvy investors will as usual make their killing financially by targeting space-centric niche players favored by MIC.
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