Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

There is lots of excitement in Poland tonight.

Russia is in the midst of conducting a large cruise missile and drone attack on western Ukraine. And apparently several Russian drones have crossed into Polish airspace. (Poland is one of the stronger NATO members.) The Polish air force has an operation underway to "neutralize" the intruders and may have shot some of them down. Residents of three Polish voivodships (provinces) have been advised to shelter in place.

The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command says:

https://x.com/DowOperSZ/status/1965593314716995891

"Attention, during today's attack by the Russian Federation carrying out strikes on targets located in the territory of Ukraine, our airspace was repeatedly violated by drone-type objects.

An operation is underway aimed at identifying and neutralizing the objects. On the orders of the Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces, weapons have been deployed, and services are actively working to locate the downed objects.

We emphasize that the military operation is ongoing, and we urge people to stay at home. The most threatened areas are the Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lubelskie voivodeships.

The Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces is monitoring the current situation, and the forces and resources under its command remain fully prepared for immediate response."

It isn't clear what's really happening, since Russian drones have accidently crossed the border on several occasions in the past, have turned around and flown back into Ukraine. Is today's incursion different in type or scale, or is the Polish government trying to turn it into an 'Attack on NATO' incident in hopes of getting NATO more involved in the Ukraine war?

(Polish air force photo)

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Poland's defense minister says he is in close contact with the NATO high command.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that he's been briefed and that the U.S. is monitoring the situation.

The Polish deputy defense minister says

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Prime minister Donald Tusk says

https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1965600876925764069

"An operation is underway related to multiple violations of Polish airspace. The military used armaments against the objects. I am in constant contact with the President and the Minister of Defense. I received a direct report from the operational commander."

The Chopin International Airport in Warsaw has been closed to civilian air traffic.

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Polish military reservists in eastern Poland have been ordered to be ready to report for action in six hours, those in central Poland to be ready in 12 hours, and those in western Poland need not be ready for immanent call-up.

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Again, I don't know what's really happening, whether it's an actual military threat to Poland or whether Poland is sending a message to Moscow - "Don't mess with us, we are ready to fight you!"

[Yazata]

Things seem to be getting quieter in Poland and Russian incursions are winding down.

The sound of fighter jets can still be heard above towns in eastern Poland.

Here's a map from Ukrainian sources that shows the Russian cruise missile and drone attack, and how some of it failed to stop at the western border. It does look like a larger incursion than anything that's happened in the past.

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[Yazata]

The Polish general staff says

https://x.com/SztabGenWP/status/1965630542310769048

"In the interest of, we appeal to: in case of finding downed drones or their fragments, do not approach, touch, or move them. Such elements may remain dangerous and must be inspected by sapper patrols.

Please report any findings to the emergency number 112 or to the nearest Police unit. This will allow the services to quickly and effectively secure the area."

Chopin International Airport in Warsaw has once again been reopened.

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The Polish PM is currently meeting with security officials to discuss tonight's events. There is a full cabinet meeting scheduled for 8 AM Warsaw time. (It's an all-nighter for them I guess.)

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[Yazata]

The Russian drone incursions into Poland two days ago involved approximately two dozen drones.

And a senior NATO officer is claiming that at least five of them appeared to be targeting a NATO base at Rzeszow Poland, which is responsible for NATO arms shipments into Ukraine.

(I'm skeptical about that, since attacking a NATO base in a NATO country would very likely draw NATO armed forces into active participation in the Ukraine war which would not be in Russia's interest.)

Two of the five were downed by Netherlands air force F-35's which were stationed in Poland to help their ally's defenses, while it isn't clear who downed the other three.

Polish photo of soldiers recovering what appears to be an intact Russian Geran drone. Russia has a large manufacturing plant (the Yelabuga drone factory) building these at a rate of about 6,000/year (approaching 20/day). They are rather low-tech drones (they are originally an Iranian design) but easy to manufacture cheaply in quantity.

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[Yazata]

The battle for Pokrovsk continues month after month, as the Ukrainian position gradually deteriorates.

Here's the situation almost eight months ago:

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And here it is now. It certainly isn't NATO-style fast moving armored maneuver warfare. (Or the classic German 'Blitzkrieg'.) Instead it's traditional Russian tactics of enveloping well-defended enemy positions in a pocket (the Russians call it a "cauldron") forcing the enemy to withdraw without having to attack them head on.

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[Yazata]

Smoke rises from the Sterlitamak petrochemical plant about 700 miles from Ukraine in southern Russia. The Ukrainians appear to have hit it with some kind of long range weaponry, even if the US still hasn't given them the Tomahawk cruise missiles that they wanted.

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[Yazata]

The Ukrainian position in the Pokrovsk pocket continues to deteriorate and may be entering into its final end-game. US intelligence reports suggest that the Russians have moved additional forces to the Pokrovsk battle in hopes of concluding it soon.

The city of Pokrovsk appears to have largely fallen, with Russian forces firmly in control or at least operating in just about all of the city. The adjoining town of Myrnohrad still seems to be in Ukrainian hands, but not only is it being attacked from several directions, it's almost completely surrounded.

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[Yazata]

The Ukrainian position in Pokrovsk continues to deteriorate. The question now seems to be whether or not they will be able to evacuate the Pokrovsk pocket successfully or whether it turns into a rout. Outside observers seem agreed that the Ukrainian positions have become indefensible. Resupply, reinforcement and just getting in and out has grown increasingly difficult as the narrowing chokepoints are heavily infested with Russian drones.

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[Yazata]

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[Yazata]

There's been lots of talk over the last few days about a 28-point Ukraine peace plan put together by the United States and Russia. Details haven't officially been released, but what purports to be the text have been leaked to pro-Ukraine media by individuals in the Ukrainian government.

Here's the text that was leaked. It's unclear if it's a final take-it-or-leave-it, or simply a working document full of proposals and trial-balloons, or what.

According to Kirill Dmitriev (Russian negotiator Trump's people have been talking to to develop the plan) President Putin says that the 28-point plan "can serve as the foundation for a final settlement of the Ukrainian conflict."

https://x.com/kadmitriev/status/1991935021259919768

The Ukrainian government is reportedly very unhappy. (That's probably why they leaked it.) And the American War-Hawks (always ready to fight to the last Ukrainian) are up in arms, denouncing the plan as giving Russia everything it wants and demanding Ukrainian capitulation. Reportedly, establishment voices in Europe aren't happy either.

My own comments on some of the provisions are in bold.

Text of the 28-point peace plan

1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.

That's a win for Ukraine. It avoids becoming a Russian satellite or client state.

2. A full and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered resolved.

3. Russia will not invade neighbouring countries, and Nato will not expand further.

4. A US-mediated dialogue will be held between Russia and Nato to resolve security issues, create conditions for de-escalation, ensure global security, and improve opportunities for cooperation and future economic growth.

2,3 and 4 look like very positive steps.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

That needs further explanation. What kind of security guarantees? By whom? What happens if Russia attacks again?

6. The size of Ukraine’s Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel [down from about 1mn currently].

600,000 is still a very large military, far larger than the UK (181,000) for example.

7. Ukraine will enshrine in its Constitution that it will not join Nato, and Nato will adopt a provision stating that Ukraine will not be admitted at any time in the future.

Good. That's basically what started all this back in 2014. Russia sees a NATO Ukraine as an intolerable provocation and threat to its national security. And Ukrainian NATO membership would demand that the US go to war with Russia to protect Ukraine, which would raise the threat of nuclear conflict which isn't remotely in the American national interest.

8. Nato will not deploy its troops in Ukraine.

OK, so who provides the "reliable security guarantees" in 5 up above? I would prefer 8 to say no foreign troops in Ukraine unless Russia attacks, in which case European forces are free to enter to fight alongside the Ukrainians.

9. European Nato forces will be stationed in Poland.

Yes, to be ready if Russia breaks the agreement. So Ukraine would seem to be getting de-facto NATO membership, backed by the European NATO members but not necessarily by the United States, reducing the chances of nuclear confrontation.

10. US security guarantees:

a. The US will receive compensation for providing guarantees.

b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantees.

c. If Russia invades Ukraine, all global sanctions will be restored and recognition of new territories will be revoked.

d. If Ukraine fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg, the guarantees become invalid.

11. Ukraine may apply for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market pending review.

A good consolation prize for not being allowed in NATO. Get EU membership instead.

12. A global reconstruction package for Ukraine will include:

That's got Trump's fingerprints all over it. Development deals! (Like the Gaza plan, but much bigger. Another win for Ukraine.

a. A fund for investing in high-tech sectors (transport, logistics, data centres, AI).

b. US–Ukraine cooperation on restoring and operating gas infrastructure (pipelines, storage).

c. Joint efforts to rebuild war-affected territories, cities, and residential areas.

d. Infrastructure development.

e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources.

f. A World Bank financing package to accelerate reconstruction.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

A win for Russia too. Deals with everyone!

a. Sanctions relief will be discussed and agreed individually and gradually.

b. The US will sign a long-term economic cooperation agreement with Russia covering energy, resources, infrastructure, AI, data centres, Arctic rare-earth mining, and other corporate opportunities.

c. Russia will be invited to return to the G8.

14. Frozen Russian assets:

a. $100bn will be invested in US-led reconstruction projects in Ukraine.

b. The US will receive 50% of profits from these projects.

c. Europe will add another $100bn for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

d. European frozen assets will be unfrozen.

e. Remaining Russian assets will be invested in a special US–Russia investment instrument for joint projects aimed at strengthening mutual interests and long-term stability.

15. A joint US–Ukraine–Russia working group on security issues will be established to monitor compliance with the agreement.

16. Russia will legally adopt a policy of non-aggression toward Europe and Ukraine.

17. The US and Russia will extend nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear arms control treaties, including START-1.

18. Ukraine will remain a non-nuclear state under the NPT.

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be restarted under IAEA supervision, with electricity output divided equally (50/50) between Russia and Ukraine.

20. Both countries will implement educational programs fostering cultural tolerance, understanding, and the elimination of racism and prejudice:

a. Ukraine will adopt EU standards on religious tolerance and minority protection.

b. Both sides will lift discriminatory measures and guarantee equal access for Ukrainian and Russian media and education.

c. Nazi ideology and activity will be banned in both countries.

21. Territorial arrangements:

This is what is attracting most of the objections from Ukraine and the American war-hawks.

a. Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk will be recognized de facto as Russian, including by the United States.

b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along current front lines.

c. Russia renounces claims to any other territories it controls beyond these five regions.

d. Ukrainian troops will withdraw from the part of Donetsk region they currently control; this zone becomes a demilitarized neutral buffer internationally recognized as Russian Federation territory. Russian forces will not enter the demilitarized zone.

22. Future territorial arrangements cannot be changed by force; security guarantees will not apply if violated.

23. Russia will not obstruct Ukraine’s commercial use of the Dnipro River, and agreements will be reached on free grain shipments via the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian committee will resolve outstanding issues:

a. Prisoners and bodies exchanged under “all for all.”

b. All civilian detainees and hostages returned, including children.

c. Family reunification program.

d. Measures to alleviate suffering of conflict victims.

25. Ukraine will hold elections within 100 days.

Zelensky might oppose that one, since he's likely to lose.

26. All parties to the conflict will receive full amnesty for wartime actions and agree not to file claims or pursue grievances.

27. The agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Peace Council chaired by Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will apply to violators.

28. After all sides agree, the ceasefire will take effect immediately once both sides withdraw to the agreed starting lines.