Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

The Ukrainian incursion still seems to generally be halted and no longer growing in net (small advances here balanced by small retreats there). The Ukrainians are continuing to pour in troops though, even though those troops are badly needed down in Donetsk oblast, where the Russians are making modest advances west of Avdiivka.

The Ukrainians still haven't crossed the border south of the three blown bridges. This might be because the Russian air force is conducting intensive air strikes against Ukrainian troop concentrations on the Ukrainian side of the border.

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nsNS

[Yazata]

Little has changed in the last ten days. The Ukrainians appear to have consolidated their position in Sudzha and have succeeded in reaching the Seym river south of Korenevo. But they have failed repeatedly to take Korenevo itself. (Korenevo is another district/raion capital of ~5,000 population, like Sudzha.)

Despite these small Ukrainian victories the Russians, initially caught by surprise, have succeeded in stopping what appears to be Ukraine's summer offensive from pushing deeper into Kursk oblast.

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While all this is happening along the border between Sumy and Kursk oblasts, the Russians continue to slowly advance in the many small industrial/mining towns in the post-Soviet rustbelt west of Donetsk and Avdiivka. The Russians appear to have breached several hastily constructed Ukrainian defense lines and a great deal of street-to-street fighting appears to be taking place in these towns. The Russians' immediate objective appears to be a rail/road junction called Pokrovsk (upper left in the map below), said to be key to the whole area.

Part of the explanation for Russia's ability to slowly advance in this area is probably that the Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk were originally meant as reinforcement in the Pokrovsk area, before they were diverted to Ukraine's new offensive. And probably part of the explanation for Russia's failure to expel the Ukrainians from Kursk is that Moscow is still giving priority to the Pokrovsk area.

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[Yazata]

Over the last five days the Russians have been counter-attacking with success on the west side of Ukraine's Kursk incursion (the left side of the map below). They have managed to retake a whole collection of farms and villages, including Snagost. (Compare this map with the previous one from Sept 8.)

To take the pressure off, the Ukrainians have crossed the Russian border as expected in a couple of spots to the west of the current Kursk incursion, in the area where the Ukrainians knocked out three Seym river bridges several weeks ago. Without the element of surprise they have made little progress so far, but the situation bears watching.

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In the Donetsk direction, the Russians continue to push the Ukrainians away from this large (~900,000 pop) post-Soviet rust belt city that they've held since 2014. The area shown on this map is just to the south of the Pokrovsk map up above. It looks like some Ukrainian forces are being encircled, and I expect them to retreat to a less exposed position soon.

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[Yazata]

The Russian counterattack against Ukraine's Kursk incursion is still proceding, but more slowly than before. The Ukrainians seem to be succeeding in holding them back so far.

A short distance to the west, where the Ukrainians have also crossed the border, they are having mixed success. They crossed the border into the village of Tetkino, right on the border. But the Russians were ready and the Ukrainians only made it about 100 meters past the border marker, soon withdrawing. They made another more successful move on the village of Veseloe, where a battle is continuing. And there's a third penetration to the east of Veseloe, where a Ukrainian column is moving across open farmland. It's unclear what the point of that is, perhaps to get behind and disrupt the Russian counterattack on the main Kursk incursion.

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[Yazata]

It's been about three weeks, so how is the Ukrainian Kursk offensive doing? Not well. The Russians continue to counterattack on the west side of the Ukrainian incursion. After trying mightily for weeks to take Koronevo, a small district (raion, like a county) capital of ~5,000 population, the Ukrainians have finally been pushed well away from it. The Ukrainians still hold Sudzha, a similar small district capital. In recent days the Russians have attacked towards it, but without any noticeable success so far. Perhaps the bottom line is that the Ukrainian Kursk offensive has not only stalled out, but has definitely gone over to the defensive, trying to hold the small corner of Kursk oblast that they currently occupy.

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[Yazata]

The United States has lifted its previous ban on American contractors operating inside Ukraine.

These are unlikely to be private military companies with their own combat forces like Russia's Wagner (now excluded from Ukraine but still active in Africa) or the former American military contractor Blackwater that was active in Iraq. These new contractors in Ukraine are expected to be mechanics and technicians tasked with helping the Ukrainians maintain and service military equipment supplied by the United States.

The Ukrainians have recently started combat operations with US made F-16 jet fighters which were supplied to Ukraine by several NATO countries in Europe. It's believed that some of these American contractors will be tasked with keeping these planes, which are unfamiliar to Ukrainian mechanics, flying.

But if these contractors are stationed on Ukrainian air bases, bases which come under Russian air and missile attack in an effort to disrupt the Ukrainian Air Force and destroy as many of their new planes as possible, Americans are likely to be killed or injured as well.

[Secular Sanity]

With two months left in office, the president for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to strike Russia with long-range missiles to help defend its forces in the Kursk region of Russia.

Russian lawmakers say Biden’s move could lead to WWIII.

[confused2]

Starting WWIII is at the extreme end of attention seeking behaviour.

[C C]

With two months left in office, the president for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to strike Russia with long-range missiles to help defend its forces in the Kursk region of Russia.

Russian lawmakers say Biden’s move could lead to WWIII.

Maybe daddy is angry, daddy wants revenge. The Medea effect transpiring at a geopolitical level: "I'd rather have the world be harmed or die than be chaperoned by Trump."

The Medea effect: The Medea effect refers to the phenomenon in which a parent harms their child as a way to seek revenge. It can manifest through physical abuse as well as relationship manipulation, such as fabricating false narratives, undermining the other parent, and restricting communication. The result can often be deep-rooted harm and lifelong trauma for the child...

Susan Smith: Susan Leigh Smith is an American woman who was convicted of murdering her two sons, three-year-old Michael and 14-month-old Alexander, in 1994 by drowning them in a South Carolina lake...

[Secular Sanity]

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/qXS9fRsFC2Q