YazataSep 10, 2022 05:29 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 10, 2022 09:36 PM by Yazata.)
Today's news seems to be that the Russian side of the Kupiansk/Izium front has totally collapsed and the Russians seem to be fleeing eastward in apparent disorder, abandoning their equipment as they go. (This is totally unexpected!)
Here's the latest map from Militaryland (who is very reliable). Compare it with the situation yesterday.
The Ukrainians are inside Kupiansk where fighting is ongoing. And they seem to be moving to the south almost unopposed and have reached the outskirts of Izium, where fighting is occurring. They appear to have swept through small towns like Vesele unopposed.
(Sep 10, 2022 05:29 PM)Yazata Wrote: Today's news seems to be that the Russian side of the Kupiansk/Izium front has totally collapsed and the Russians seem to be fleeing eastward in apparent disorder, abandoning their equipment as they go. (This is totally unexpected!)
Is that a burned out Russian tank in background? The soldier bottom right has no boots. Would he be a POW or are boots off because he’s a tired as hell Ukrainian looking to sleep?
YazataSep 10, 2022 10:30 PM (This post was last modified: Sep 10, 2022 10:57 PM by Yazata.)
(Sep 10, 2022 09:59 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: Is that a burned out Russian tank in background?
It looks intact to me, hard to tell though. Could be Ukrainian, or abandoned Russian. The internet is filled with photos of abandoned Russian stuff, including armored vehicles.
It really looks like the Russians have been routed in this particular part of Ukraine. Unofficial American military observers on the internet are saying that it looks like command-and-control for these Russian forces has broken down and that it's every-man-for-himself as they flee in disorder. They point out that armies in this state are very vulnerable and Ukraine has the opportunity to basically destroy these Russian units, if they are able to follow up on it.
Quote:The soldier bottom right has no boots. Would he be a POW or are boots off because he’s a tired as hell Ukrainian looking to sleep?
I'm guessing that he's a POW.
And unconfirmed reports say that the Ukrainians out of Sloviansk have crossed the Siverski-Donets river and are preparing to attack Lyman.
this is when Ukraine needs its mobile anti air craft weapons
if russia was organized and had command and control they would be launching air craft attacks on advancing units
but they appear to not have command or control.
hopefully Ukraine has its stinger units on alert in the rear of their front lines
i wonder if the POW with no boots had stolen boots
unlikely to run off if they dont have boots on, maybe they took them off so his feet could dry out
maybe he jumped out of a armored unit without his boots on and was caught running away.
i imagine there must be a few smarter Russians who are surrendering instead of being killed
maybe he is one of those KEEPING IN MIND Russia has deployed soldiers without any boots and russian soldiers have been buying and stealing shoes and boots
YazataSep 11, 2022 03:25 AM (This post was last modified: Sep 11, 2022 03:54 AM by Yazata.)
Jomini of the West is saying that this is starting to look like the most successful counteroffensive since the Israelis in the 1973 Yom Kippur war. And this is the Russians, not the Egyptians.
It's amazing how this counteroffensive is looking more and more impressive by the day. At first it just promised to retake some territory and some villages. Kupiansk seemed out of reach. Then the Ukrainians approached Kupiansk and cutting off supplies to all the Russian forces around Izium seemed possible. But Izium seemed to big to attack. Then they were attacking Izium and the whole Russian position was falling apart. And today one wonders how much further this will go.
Jomini of the West seems to favor the idea that the talk of a Kherson offensive including Kyiv's publicly announced media blackout, was mostly a feint (a maneuver designed to distract or mislead). The Russians seem to have believed it so they moved lots of men and arms to Kherson where they were pummeled by HIMARS. Meanwhile the ZSU (Ukrainian initials for 'Armed Forces of Ukraine') was very quietly moving five maneuver brigades (their total equivalent to a NATO division) into position opposite a weakly defended portion of the Russian lines. When they attacked they caught the Russians entirely by surprise.
So once again the Russians totally botched everything. Their military intelligence failed to detect the gathering forces. They failed to quickly support and reinforce their troops. They failed to use their abundant air power effectively. And their resulting retreat has become a rout.
I can't imagine that Putin is happy. He's probably wondering what the hell is the matter with his generals.
Here's Jomini of the West's situational infographic
I just realised why some Russian troops were trying to use Civilian cars to escape. It wasn't just down to the Ukrainian advance, it's because of Russia's propaganda.
Quote:...the head of the Russia-installed administration in the Kharkiv region recommended that its people evacuate to Russia "to save lives".
Having Russian troops in civilian clothing all piling up at the border trying to get back into Russia for propaganda's sake makes it look like a bunch of scared civilians escaping from the "Nazi" hordes, which then allows them to invoke further repercussions (Such as declaring a full blown war to enable forced conscription etc)
(Sep 11, 2022 11:27 AM)stryder Wrote: I just realised why some Russian troops were trying to use Civilian cars to escape. It wasn't just down to the Ukrainian advance, it's because of Russia's propaganda.
Quote:...the head of the Russia-installed administration in the Kharkiv region recommended that its people evacuate to Russia "to save lives".
Having Russian troops in civilian clothing all piling up at the border trying to get back into Russia for propaganda's sake makes it look like a bunch of scared civilians escaping from the "Nazi" hordes, which then allows them to invoke further repercussions (Such as declaring a full blown war to enable forced conscription etc)
(Sep 11, 2022 02:34 AM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: i wonder if the POW with no boots had stolen boots
unlikely to run off if they dont have boots on, maybe they took them off so his feet could dry out
maybe he jumped out of a armored unit without his boots on and was caught running away.
KEEPING IN MIND Russia has deployed soldiers without any boots and russian soldiers have been buying and stealing shoes and boots
More economical for Russians to take boots off of dead comrades or their blown off feet/legs. It seems like there’s many sizes to choose from and plenty in stock.
Sep 10, 2022 05:29 PM
(This post was last modified: Sep 10, 2022 09:36 PM by Yazata.)
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