Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum › Culture › General Discussion › Ukrainian Conflict
Navigation bit Russian Ukraine Invasion

Threaded Mode

Russian Ukraine Invasion
avatar of user
Posts: 2,363
Threads: 96
Joined: Nov 2016
Reply
avatar of user
Posts: 2,363
Threads: 96
Joined: Nov 2016
Reply
avatar of user
Posts: 2,363
Threads: 96
Joined: Nov 2016
Reply
avatar of user
Posts: 2,363
Threads: 96
Joined: Nov 2016
Reply
avatar of user
Posts: 2,363
Threads: 96
Joined: Nov 2016
Reply
avatar of user
Posts: 7,666
Threads: 866
Joined: Oct 2014
#796
Yazata Offline Sep 13, 2022 03:35 AM (This post was last modified: Sep 13, 2022 04:44 AM by Yazata.)
Given the euphoria about the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast, there's lots of false information on the internet the last few days. The Osint types suggest taking everything with a grain of salt. The most exciting developments are likely to be exaggerated and unlikely to be completely true. So they advise exercising caution.

One thing that is pretty well verified is that Ukrainian forces that had been on defense north of Sloviansk have gone on the offensive. Many of them had been fighting off incessant attacks from the Izium direction and those have suddenly stopped. So those soldiers have been freed up. They are reported to have crossed the Siverski Donets in at least two places. They have attacked Lyman, but have met strong Russian resistance and have been unable to take the entire town. And they have crossed the river further to the west and have retaken the small town of Syvatohirsk. The importance of this town is that it is the location of an Orthodox monastery that's a major cultural landmark. (There's a cave in the hill that monks have been using since the middle ages.) There was reportedly no opposition from the Russians here and they withdrew when the Ukrainians crossed.

Ukrainian soldier (with his face obscured) or civilian volunteer or something (apart from the helmet, he's not in uniform) with the monastery in the background. There are countless little private military forces in Ukraine. Some are volunteers to defend a town or a landmark like this. Others are entire regiments. Some of those like Azov have joined the Ukrainian military command structure and are technically part of the national guard (where they operate as special forces) but a few of these regiments are completely independent of Ukrainian military command. (Though they have all been voluntarily coordinating durng the war.)


[Image: FcdRovjWAAAMg1e?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FcdRovjWAAAMg1e?format=jpg&name=large]




[Image: FcdqmsbWYAA3I9r?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FcdqmsbWYAA3I9r?format=jpg&name=large]



One thing that I'm skeptical about are all the stories of big Ukrainian advances east of the Oskil. Supposedly Russians are fleeing from town after town. Maybe it's true, but I doubt it. What I think is more probable is that Ukrainian special forces have been crossing the Oskil reservoir in small numbers in small boats, penetrating 20-30 km deep behind Russian lines, and ambushing supply convoys and stuff. But they aren't seizing and holding territory, as far as I know.
Reply
avatar of user
Posts: 7,666
Threads: 866
Joined: Oct 2014
#797
Yazata Offline Sep 13, 2022 05:01 AM (This post was last modified: Sep 13, 2022 05:30 AM by Yazata.)
Another thing that may or may not turn out to be important is this:

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces Southern Command told Kyiv's Channel 24 TV that "some" Russian forces in Kherson oblast west of the Dnepr river are trying to negotiate a surrender. Unknown how large a group of Russians this is. It may or may not become a big story in coming days.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/stat...6403249154


Another new war. (You can never have too many.)

Azerbijan (ostensibly a Russian ally but closer to Turkey and at times Iran these days) has started artillery barrages against neighboring Armenia (a real Russian ally who depends on Russia for military protection). Armenia has invoked their CSTO military alliance with Russia asking for military aid. (Russia has traditionally been the policeman of the Trans-Caucasus.)

Azerbijan is almost certainly doing this because they sense that Russia has been gravely weakened by the Ukraine war and is in no position to provide military aid to anyone.

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/stat...3149551682

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...4077771776

So we may find ourselves in the position of cheering against Russia in Ukraine (where they are the bad guys) but cheering for them in Armenia (where they are the good guys)
Reply
avatar of user
Posts: 21,202
Threads: 13,540
Joined: Oct 2014
#798
C C Offline Sep 13, 2022 05:54 AM (This post was last modified: Sep 13, 2022 06:02 AM by C C.)
(Sep 13, 2022 05:01 AM)Yazata Wrote: [...] Azerbijan is almost certainly doing this because they sense that Russia has been gravely weakened by the Ukraine war and is in no position to provide military aid to anyone.

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/stat...3149551682

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...4077771776

So we may find ourselves in the position of cheering against Russia in Ukraine (where they are the bad guys) but cheering for them in Armenia (where they are the good guys)

Yeah, "gravely weakened" supposedly.

Some are floating the idea that Putin is deliberately retreating from the Ukrainian offensive so as to trigger and feed an outcry from the public in favor of finally declaring this a war instead of an "operation". So Putin can send in the full scale of Russia's military might without the prior criticism it would have otherwise generated. This would also explain the self-disparaging, clownish videos he has had with generals -- those are part of the overall pretense of incompetence.

The problem with this theory is all the equipment and ammunition that Russia is abandoning in Ukraine. It seems ludicrous that any country would leave that, to be later re-labeled and used against their own new, incoming wave of troops. Just for the sake of public perception trickery with respect to the world, and manipulating the home Russian crowd to a level of exuberant patriotism.
Reply
avatar of user
Posts: 7,666
Threads: 866
Joined: Oct 2014
Reply
avatar of user
Posts: 2,363
Threads: 96
Joined: Nov 2016
Reply




Users browsing this thread: 2 Guest(s)