Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

The Ukrainian grand offensive is in its third month and has succeeded in advancing maybe 10 km at best, at great cost in men and equipment.

How great is unknown, since numbers of Ukrainian killed and wounded is a state secret. But satellite imagery suggests that new military cemetaries have been constructed to hold ~150,000-170,000 graves. If we assume a ratio of 3 wounded to 1 killed, which seems pretty typical in modern wars, that works out to some 600,000 Ukrainian casualties so far (both KIA and WIA) since the beginning of the war in February 2022.

We can only assume that the Russians have suffered losses on the same scale. Their losses were probably higher than Ukrainian losses early in the war when they were sending army convoys down roads deep into Ukraine, and watching them get picked off by anti-tank rockets. But now the Russians are fighting a defensive battle while the Ukrainians are the ones sending armor and infantry against antitank rockets, through mine fields and artillery kill zones. So since the grand offensive started, Ukrainian casualties are probably higher than Russian.

[Yazata]

Ukraine has increased its attacks on the Zaphorizhia front. Canadian made Stryker armored fighting vehicles and British made Challenger tanks have been observed in action. Multiple Strykers have been observed burning in drone video. And by all accounts, Ukraine only has a handful of Chellengers, by some counts only 14 of them.

Remains to be seen what will come of today's increased activity, no breakthroughs to report so far.

[Yazata]

For whatever it's worth, the New York Times claims that "U.S officials" have put the military casualty count for both Ukraine and Russia as follows:

- Ukraine:

70,000 (deaths)
120,000 (wounded)

- Russia:

120,000 (deaths)
180,000 (wounded)

I make it a point of pride to be skeptical of whatever the New York Times says when they cite unnamed "sources". It's basically just their appeal to trust us. But these figures don't look entirely outside the realm of possibility.

[Yazata]

Ukraine has increased its attacks on the Zaphorizhia front. Canadian made Stryker armored fighting vehicles and British made Challenger tanks have been observed in action. Multiple Strykers have been observed burning in drone video. And by all accounts, Ukraine only has a handful of Challengers, by some counts only 14 of them.

Remains to be seen what will come of today's increased activity, no breakthroughs to report so far.

Today's news is that the Russians have apparently pulled back out of Robotyne, a small farming village that's been a scene of fierce fighting for weeks. The capture of Robotyne would suggest that the Ukrainians have strengthened their breach of Russia's first line of defense.

But as is their habit, the Russians already had the village programmed in their artillery's fire control computers and are calling in intense artillery bombardment of the positions they had just left. So it might be premature to speak of Ukraine occupying the village and it might more accurately be described as a devastated no-man's-land. Many more reports of burning Stryker's as Ukrainian armored vehicle losses continue to multiply.

It's a Ukrainian victory I guess, but perhaps somewhat Pyrrhic.

---

And in other developments, all of Moscow's airports were suddenly shut down for several hours once again today. This was followed by loud bangs and flashes in the sky and falling debris in several Moscow neighborhoods. There aren't any reports of deaths or injuries, and just minor damage like dented cars hit by falling pieces of metal.

It appears that the Ukrainian "beaver" drones were back. Unclear if any got through to their intended targets or what those targets might have been.

[Yazata]

Big and unexpected news. The plane that was carrying Yevgeny Progozhin back to Russia from Mali has crashed in the Tver oblast, northwest of Moscow. Everyone on board was killed.

Wagner sources have confirmed Progizhin's death.

There are accusations that Russian surface to air missile batteries shot the plane down. Witnesses on the ground report hearing two large explosions before seeing one of the wings of the jet come off. It sounds like it was either one or more SAMs or else bombs planted aboard while the plane was in Mali. Many people are saying that if you lead a rebellion against Moscow's establishment, this is what happens to you. It's all speculative.

It's unclear what will happen with Wagner or who will assume command of it. Several other top Wagner leaders were with Progozhin in the plane.

[C C]

[...] Wagner sources have confirmed Progizhin's death.

There are accusations that Russian surface to air missile batteries shot the plane down. Witnesses on the ground report hearing two large explosions before seeing one of the wings of the jet come off. It sounds like it was either one or more SAMs or else bombs planted aboard while the plane was in Mali. Many people are saying that if you lead a rebellion against Moscow's establishment, this is what happens to you. [...]

Well, at least this is one "Jimmy Hoffa" they won't have to theorize about with regard to where the remains are located. No having to use ground penetrating radar on recently poured cement in a Moscow stadium currently under construction.

[stryder]

[...] Wagner sources have confirmed Progizhin's death.

There are accusations that Russian surface to air missile batteries shot the plane down. Witnesses on the ground report hearing two large explosions before seeing one of the wings of the jet come off. It sounds like it was either one or more SAMs or else bombs planted aboard while the plane was in Mali. Many people are saying that if you lead a rebellion against Moscow's establishment, this is what happens to you. [...]

While currently Ukraine has said they hadn't done it, and the west alledges that Putin did. There is someone else that gains a lot from how it has played out.

Alexander Lukashenko (The Belarussian usurper) now has a small militia that he can control considering it's either his way or the highway (which basically means getting on Putins shitlist). Belarus has it's own internal problems since not everyone over there wants to be drawn into whatever Russia does, which means for him to maintain control over the country he's likely to require Wagner to push people in line where his own people don't want to follow orders. (Wagner was likely responsible for his initial takeover of power anyway)

It would be interesting to see if Wagner nominates its own command internally or if Lukashenko pushes for command (either directly or threw one of his trusted minions)

Another consideration is that on the planes crash, news reports implied that the internet was spotty around the Wagner camp in Belarus. I guess you could say if it was feared how the men might react based upon finding out the events straight away, it might of caused them to react before anyone could suggest a new command structure. (In other words if they'd gone off the rails, Lukashenko wouldn't be able to use them)

[Yazata]

The Ukrainians continue attacking south of Orikiv on the Zaphorizhia front. The are boasting of having "occupied" the tiny village of Robotyne, which has been the subject of terrible fighting for weeks now. The Russians say that the while Russian troops have pulled out of the village, the Ukrainians have had trouble entering it because it has became the target of heavy Russian shelling after the Russians left. So the town might better be described as a 'no-man's-land'.

Meanwhile the Ukrainians have redirected the main thrust of their attacks a kilometer or two to the east, where they are trying to sieze a low ridge where the Russians are defending and pushing towards a small town called Verbove.

Map by Russian source Rybar (I've found Rybar to be a credible source that avoids the propaganda put out by both sides. They are pro-Russian but they admit Russian losses and aren't hesitant to criticize Russian commanders.

[Image: F4nyRk5WoAAXWGV?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

While the Ukrainians are making slow progress, it's come at great cost. LostArmour has counted some 120 destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles in the fields in front of Robotyne. There are probably more, since these people only count photographically confirmed geolocated losses.

Map by LostArmour

[Image: F4po8JVXoAI-6-G?format=jpg&name=large]

[Yazata]

The Ukrainians seem to be throwing everything the have available at this latest push east of Robotyne, their best Western trained and equipped brigades. (The equivalent of more than a NATO division.) By all accounts it's the heaviest fighting yet seen in the war, with heavy casualties on both sides. The Ukrainians seem to be losing lots of armored vehicles and have suffered some thousands of casualties, dead and wounded. But they seem to think it's worth the cost if they can achieve a breakthrough.

The Ukrainian government seems unwilling to call off the carnage without something they can spin into a victory. And conversely, it isn't clear that the Russian defense lines can hold. (They are so far, but they are under lots of pressure.)

The Russians have had the advantage of much greater numbers of artillery and far more artillery ammunition. And the Russians have been using that advantage very effectively. But these Ukrainian brigades have superior Western artillery, albeit far less of it. The Russian artillery has the disadvantage of generally having shorter range than the Ukrainian guns. And the Ukrainians seem to have adopted much more effective NATO-style counter battery fire, knocking out Russian artillery positions from positions back out of range of the Russian guns.

So far, the Russians seem to have countered that with aircraft, taking advantage of their control of the air over the battlefield. But the whole thing is in flux and changing by the day, so that might be a temporary advantage if the Ukrainians can improve their tactical air defense.

[confused2]

A Ukrainian government official has confirmed to the BBC that Ukraine was behind Wednesday's drone attack on a Russian airbase at Pskov.
A number of Ilyushin transport planes were said to be damaged or destroyed.
The official, from the Ministry of Defence, confirmed local reports that Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) was behind the attack.
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that a Ukrainian-made weapon had hit a target at a distance of 700km.
He did not specify the weapon or the target, but the distance could correspond to the Pskov attack.
Ukraine believes that four Il-76 planes were destroyed and two others damaged. Russian officials say four planes were damaged.

More: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66675108
A fuel depot in Kaluga and a microelectronics factory in Bryansk where components for Russian weapons systems are made were also hit in those attacks.