Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

The intensified Ukrainian push appears to be having some success. They appear to have taken the ridge that they were trying for, but are still outside Verbove.

All in all, they have advanced about 12 km beyond their start-point three months ago when the big summer offensive started. It's nothing like the big breakthroughs that the Ukrainians (and the Pentagon) were hoping for, where the Ukrainians smash their way through demoralized Russian conscripts and then roll triumphantly through Tokmak and Melitopol, to Crimea. Another rout like the one around Izium. That obvioiusly hasn't happened.

But it does indicate a breach of the first main Russian defensive line, so it isn't insignificant. Heavy fighting continues and I get the impression that neither side likes the result very much. Very heavy casualties on both sides. The Russians are losing ground, which doesn't please them. But the Ukrainians are advancing far more slowly and at much greater cost than they would like. It's starting to look a little like World War I.

The Ukrainian hope still seems to hit the Russians with so much force that they achieve their hoped for breakthrough. The Russians seem content to play defense, hold their prepared lines as best they can, and let the Ukrainians use up their army, exhausting themselves.

Map by Russian source Rybar. The Ukrainian military briefings are painting a very similar picture. Rybar might (or might not) understate Ukrainian advances a little. There are some indications that fighting is occurring at or near the feature the map calls Balka Kryva (a patch of woods?)

[Image: F5Q0fn8XgAA5xlO?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

[Yazata]

Ukrainian video has surfaced that shows the first confirmed combat loss anywhere of a British-made Challenger 2 tank. It appears to have been hit in the engine compartment and appears otherwise intact. British defense officials told BBC that all four of its crew got out. (One of the advanced features of these tanks is enhanced crew survivability.) Britain only gave Ukraine 14 of these.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...7088239898

The video also shows a couple of other destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. One was a tank that was fiercely burning. Hard to make out the other one, perhaps an armored personnel carrier. Dozens of destroyed US supplied Strykers have been photographed.

[Yazata]

There's been little change since a week ago. The Russians say that the Ukrainians are still throwing men and equipment into the battle, but only succeeding in advancing a hundred meters here and a hundred meters there.

The biggest news is that Ukraine is talking about continuing their offensive into the fall. They are hinting about emphasizing infantry more than armor, which is probably inevitable given they have lost approaching a thousand armored vehicles. The West simply can't supply armored vehicles at the rate Ukraine is wrecking them. Ukraine is putting a national mobilization into effect and are standing up some ten new army brigades. Each brigate is ~5,000 men, so these new brigades will total ~50,000 men. But if they are filling them with new draftees, and if they will be committed to battle this fall, these soldiers will be minimally trained. I'd hate to think they will just be canon-fodder, intended for human wave attacks, whatever the cost, so that better trained and equipped professional troops can exploit any breakthroughs.

While this is happening, the Russians continue to build new lines and improve their defensive position. They appear to be well and truly on the defensive right now.

[Image: F51x6YLXcAAKG2Q?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

[Yazata]

The Ukrainians continue to make small gains west of Verbove. The map below is from War_Mapper, a pro-Ukrainian source and based largely on Ukrainian army briefings. Compare it to the pro-Russian Rybar map above from nine days ago. War_Mapper's map might overstate Ukrainian gains while Rybar understates them, but even with that factored in, gains have been small and have come at great cost. (As many as a thousand wrecked armored vehicles and tens of thousands of dead and wounded soldiers.) The total Ukrainian penetration looks to be about 14 km.

[Image: F6kVpnmXEAElKDM?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

To put the whole thing in perspective, here's War_Mapper's larger scale map. Ukraine's advance is small, but that being said, Ukraine has succeeded in breaching a couple of Russian lines.

[Image: F6kVqfiXYAAHR4e?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

[Yazata]

This report tonight from Russians on the Zaporozhye front:

"Urgent Zaporozhye Direction

We are facing a powerful attack on our positions. The enemy is advancing."

Large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers and armored vehicles are engaged.

The Russians say that their artillery and aviation are working to turn back the new thrust.

[Yazata]

The Israel-Hamas war has captured everyone's attention, but the Ukraine war hasn't stopped.

Little word is coming from the Zaporozhye direction, and there is no indication of any big movements on the map there. But so far the Ukrainian attacks continue steadily, with very little to show for it. It seems to me that the Ukrainians are consuming military equipment, ammunition and (most importantly) their own young men at a rate that's unsustainable long-term. Especially if America's attention turns to its own depleted stocks and to support of Israel. My opinion is that at some point Ukraine is going to have to dial it back. Their window of opportunity to take back land might be closing.

The biggest recent battle news concerns a small city called Avdiivka. When the pro-Russian separatists took control of the city of Donetsk in 2014 (one of Ukraine's largest cities, but populated largely by pro-Russian Russian speakers) the Ukrainian army kept control of Avdiivka, a large industrial suburb close by. The Ukrainians dug in from 2014 to 2022 with lots of fortified concrete bunkers. These positions have fought off Russian attacks repeatedly. Around the time Wagner was taking Bakhmut, the Russians had Avdiivka partially encirled. But the Ukrainians fought back and retook many of the encroaching Russian positions.

But over the last week or so, the Russians have renewed their attacks in hopes of pushing the Ukrainians back away from Donetsk and occupy roughly the same positions they lost before and have Avdiivka partially encircled again. The question now is whether the Russians can build on that. They couldn't last time that they fought over the same ground.

Map from the Institute for the Study of War. a pro-Ukrainian source with close ties to the US intelligence agencies.

[Image: F8fYY2oWkAAzFNd?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

[Yazata]

Here's the situation in Avdiivka as of Oct 20-21:

[Image: F9BvhUJW4AAPnwg?format=jpg&name=large]

Compare that to Oct 10-11. It looks like the Russians initially broke through at Krasnohorivka and advanced as far as a village called Berdychi. The Ukrainians stopped them there and appear to have pushed them back to Krasnohorivka. The Russians do appear to have made some very slight gains over the last ten days south of Krasnohorivka, where they seem to have captured a big mound of mine tailings and a dump near a chemical plant.

But all in all, given the casualties they have sustained, this latest Avdiivka offensive looks like a failure for the Russians.

The Ukraine war really does look like it's turning into a World War I style stalemate, where front lines remain largely frozen as large numbers of young men die.

[Image: F9BvZCMWMAAfYGS?format=jpg&name=large]

[RainbowUnicorn]

Here's the situation in Avdiivka as of Oct 20-21:



Compare that to Oct 10-11. It looks like the Russians initially broke through at Krasnohorivka and advanced as far as a village called Berdychi. The Ukrainians stopped them there and appear to have pushed them back to Krasnohorivka. The Russians do appear to have made some very slight gains over the last ten days south of Krasnohorivka, where they seem to have captured a big mound of mine tailings and a dump near a chemical plant.

But all in all, given the casualties they have sustained, this latest Avdiivka offensive looks like a failure for the Russians.

The Ukraine war really does look like it's turning into a World War I style stalemate, where front lines remain largely frozen as large numbers of young men die.

as large numbers of young men die.

more orcs dying is fabulous news 
they are not all young

Did Russia raise conscription age to 70?

The new law means that those from this reserve with the highest ranks can now be called back into service up to the age of 70 rather than 65, other senior ranks up to 65, junior officers up to 60 - and all others up to the age of 55 rather than 45.
18/07/2023

[Yazata]

Ukrainian improvisation: A GRAD rocket launcher attached to an American supplied HMMWV

[Image: F9PJXh8asAALLK7?format=jpg&name=large]

[Yazata]

The Ukraine war continues, even as the world's attention has shifted to the Israel war.

While there have been no changes on the map, the Ukrainians scored a victory with their Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles (British and French versions of essentially the same air-launched cruise missile, known for its large and potent warhead.

They struck the Russian Project 22800 naval corvette Askold, which was tied up at the Zalyv shipyard in Kerch Crimea, a former major Soviet shipyard which has been active building ships for the Russians since their takeover of Crimea in 2014. The Askold had just been launched and was still being fitted out with its systems.

The missile devastated the side of the ship, tearing a huge hole. Just from looking at it, it looks like the Askold is a total loss, or at the least will take years to essentially rebuild.

[Image: F-Rf6yGXwAA_ITJ?format=jpg&name=large]

This is what these ships look like when they aren't blown up - the Askold's sister ship Burya.

[Image: Schiff_%C2%ABBurya%C2%BB_03.jpg]