Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

The Commander of the US Central Command took off today from McDill Air Force Base outside Tampa FL (the headquarters of Centcom is located there) flew to Shannon Ireland, refueled, and appears headed to Israel. General Kurilla likes to be hands-on, I guess. He was in Israel for Iran's earlier attack in April.

Update

He's arrived in Israel.

Canada has raised its travel warning for Israel to 'Avoid All Travel'.

https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/israel...gaza-strip

Both US and Israeli 'sources' say that they believe Iran is still drawing up its attack plan and coordinating with its proxies. These sources say an attack could come as soon as Monday.

Iran has reportedly told Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar through diplomatic channels that if they do anything to help Israel, they will be attacked as well.

The Iranians say that Israel's killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders crossed their 'red line', so they are preparing to cross Israel's red line. Of course, the Israelis have already said that if the Iranian attack causes significant damage or loss of life, it will mean full-scale war.

The Iranians have reportedly told the Arab countries above that they "don't care" whether their attack on Israel triggers a bigger regional war.

Israel is activating deep underground bunker complexes beneath western Jerusalem for top government officials, and beneath Tel Aviv ("the pit") for the Israeli Defense Force wartime command, along with several other hardened control nodes. These facilities are supposedly designed to survive direct hits by "bunker buster" bombs.

General Kurilla, the Centcom commander, is reportedly in the Persian Gulf region today, checking in with US forces located there. He will likely return to Israel tomorrow. Looking at that route map from yesterday, I'm struck by how the general's route carefully avoids French airspace. He flies over Ireland, the UK, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Italy and Greece with no problem, but France appears to be back in haughty Gaullic mode again.

Residents of Tel Aviv report heavy GPS jamming. This is probably the work of the Israelis themselves, so as to throw off the guidance of drones that use GPS.

Abraham Accord signers should take the opportunity of any all-out war to side against Iran, since they signed on over the fear of a nuclear Iran anyway. But given their reluctance to take over governance for Gaza, when given the option, it would likely fall on Western allies to occupy a conquered Iran, so as not to create a failed-state vacuum for more terrorists... if such a thing as "more" is even possible at this point.

The Israeli Defense Force has distributed a document to mayors in northern Israel about what to expect should a Full-Scale War with Hezbollah break out. The mayors were told to prepare for three days without electric power in some places, a breakdown in water supplies which could last more than a week, a interruption of landlines and cell phones, internet and radio that could last days.

The IDF believes that hundreds of rockets with 50-500kg warheads could rain down on cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv.

Military and police in northern Israel are on alert for "terrorist infiltrations and unexpected scenarios".

---

Netanyahu met with his top generals tonight. Reportedly, a preemptive strike on Iran was discussed, but the decision was made to hold off unless definite intelligence is received that an attack is immanent.

General Kurilla, Commander of the US Central Command, is back in Israel and is meeting with top Israeli commanders to discuss joint strategy.

---

Indications that an Iranian attack might not be immanent:

Israeli intelligence still doesn't think Iran has deployed the necessary missiles. They need to be delivered to launch sites and set up for launch, Israel and the US are watching for this, but it doesn't appear to have happened yet.

And Iran has called an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation for Wednesday.

(Aug 5, 2024 06:43 PM)Yazata Wrote: [...] Indications that an Iranian attack might not be immanent [...]

They could save face by just proclaiming Allah is going to smack Israel with doom and affliction. Islamic divine curses are going to be hot stuff again after the riots settle down in the UK, and the government goes on its compensatory guilt trip of policymaking.

(Aug 5, 2024 08:27 PM)C C Wrote:

(Aug 5, 2024 06:43 PM)Yazata Wrote: [...] Indications that an Iranian attack might not be immanent [...]

They could save face by just proclaiming Allah is going to smack Israel with doom and affliction. Islamic divine curses are going to be hot stuff again after the riots settle down in the UK, and the government goes on its compensatory guilt trip of policymaking.

Wonder if Khomeini has a guy go in first, or a food taster, flak jacket body armor or even a double. Anything, as long as he doesn’t get an Israeli surprise gift.

(Aug 6, 2024 12:15 AM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: ...as long as he doesn’t get an Israeli surprise gift.

Getting a surprise Israeli gift could be a real blast!

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group's location is very interesting and provocative, right outside the Strait of Hormuz very close to the Iranian coast.

I'm seeing reports that Iranian missile TELs (transporter-erector-launchers) have been moving around today.