The war may or may not be getting ready to spread to Moldova, a small former Soviet republic tucked between Ukraine (at war with Russia) and Romania (a NATO member). Moldova has a seperatist region called Transdinestria. And this little enclave has long had a small force of Russians as "peacekeepers".
Early in the Ukraine war it was feared that these Russians would attack Odessa from the rear as the main force of Russians surged westwards through Kherson and Mykolaiv. But that Russian offensive bogged down and ran out of steam, and the Russians in Moldova receded back into obscurity.
But it's now been a year since the Ukraine war started and the Russians in Moldova have been cut off from resupply the whole time. In the last week Ukrainian intelligence said that the Russian "peacekeepers" are planning to seize the airport in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau. Moldovan intelligence says that they've heard the same thing.
Moldova only has a small army, but it's on alert. There's speculation that if the Russians did this so as to fly in support by air, they would have to suppress Ukrainian air defenses south of Odessa near the Black Sea. That's because flights over NATO member Romania are out as are flights over Ukraine. But Moldova is near (but not on) the Black Sea so maybe an air corridor could be punched through there. So it's assumed that any move to seize Moldova's big airport would be preceded by Russian Black Sea fleet offensive operations to open up an air corridor into Moldova.
There hasn't been any sign of that so far.
Well that's the context into which this US Navy P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft fits. It's flying out of the big air base at Sigonella in Italy and is doing laps near where the Russian air corridor would have to be.
(Feb 23, 2023 07:19 AM)Yazata Wrote: The war may or may not be getting ready to spread to Moldova, a small former Soviet republic tucked between Ukraine (at war with Russia) and Romania (a NATO member). Moldova has a seperatist region called Transdinestria. Transnistria. And this little enclave has long had a small force of Russians as "peacekeepers".
Early in the Ukraine war it was feared that these Russians would attack Odessa from the rear as the main force of Russians surged westwards through Kherson and Mykolaiv. But that Russian offensive bogged down and ran out of steam, and the Russians in Moldova receded back into obscurity.
But it's now been a year since the Ukraine war started and the Russians in Moldova have been cut off from resupply the whole time. In the last week Ukrainian intelligence said that the Russian "peacekeepers" are planning to seize the airport in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau. Moldovan intelligence says that they've heard the same thing.
Moldova only has a small army, but it's on alert. There's speculation that if the Russians did this so as to fly in support by air, they would have to suppress Ukrainian air defenses south of Odessa near the Black Sea. That's because flights over NATO member Romania are out as are flights over Ukraine. But Moldova is near (but not on) the Black Sea so maybe an air corridor could be punched through there. So it's assumed that any move to seize Moldova's big airport would be preceded by Russian Black Sea fleet offensive operations to open up an air corridor into Moldova.
There hasn't been any sign of that so far.
Well that's the context into which this US Navy P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft fits. It's flying out of the big air base at Sigonella in Italy and is doing laps near where the Russian air corridor would have to be.
there was some reported movement of russian naval ships yesterday and the day before
the expectation is they are getting ready to launch missiles at Ukraine.
would be great if a US attack sub was given a Ukrainian flag to sail under.
1st job would be to hit kerch bridge
2nd job would be to hit the 2 russian missile cruisers.
(Feb 24, 2023 09:54 PM)Yazata Wrote: Four Ukrainian SU-25's headed in the direction of Bakhmut
YazataFeb 26, 2023 04:08 AM (This post was last modified: Feb 26, 2023 05:10 AM by Yazata.)
Croatia has 14 of these old Soviet era Mi-8 helicopters that were retired from the Croatian airforce and were in storage. Word is that they are undergoing maintenance servicing, then will be transferred to Poland who will give them to Ukraine. The helicopters are old but flyable, and Ukraine is already familiar with the aircraft type. Croatia has already sent military aid to Ukraine but it's typically classified and they like to supply it through middlemen like Poland.
Things are getting worse around Bakhmut. People are saying that if Ukraine hopes to get their several thousand soldiers out, they need to start extracting them in the next few hours.
Wagner has taken Berkhivka north of Bakhmut, which puts them astride the northernmost of the three roads out. And it looks like they have taken Yahidne which is immediately next to Bakhmut to the northwest. To the south, word is that Wagner and other Russian forces have launched a major push to take Ivanivske a short distance west of Bakhmut. They are already astride the southernmost of the three roads there.
That leaves just one middle road out and we can be sure that the Russians will be targeting it with artillery.
And what is believed to be one of two prototypes of the US Army's 'Artemis' ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) jet is doing laps today along the Moldovan border. People are commenting that it's flying without official callsign or identification. Just a number assigned by air traffic control in Romania.
It's unclear what's attracted its attention. Perhaps the Army just wants to test out the sensor suite on this new aircraft type, that they intend to buy, in real-life conditions.
Photo of one of these planes at Dugway Proving Ground in Utah.
YazataFeb 28, 2023 11:10 PM (This post was last modified: Mar 1, 2023 12:04 AM by Yazata.)
I don't know whether to put this in the Ukraine thread or the Balloon thread.
Many reports say that this morning Russia closed airspace over and near their second city, St. Petersburg. Many civilian flights have been diverted to alternative airports, including a government VIP aircraft that Putin often flies which turned around and returned to Moscow.
The reason given was "unknown objects" in the sky over the city. The obvious worry was Ukrainian attack drones. Russian Air Force jets were scrambled to deal with it.
Edit - word is that airspace over St. Petersburg has reopened.
A Ukrainian source says that the video in the Tweet below is of the unknown object over St. Petersburg. (May or may not be true.) Assuming that it is authentic, the video looks vaguely like a US RQ-4 Global Hawk reconnaissance drone, though there are other drones with similar appearance. The Russians should have been able to shoot it down easily enough, so they should know what it was. (RQ-4's typically fly at much higher altitude than this, so I remain a bit skeptical.)
(Feb 28, 2023 11:10 PM)Yazata Wrote: I don't know whether to put this in the Ukraine thread or the Balloon thread.
Many reports say that this morning Russia closed airspace over and near their second city, St. Petersburg. Many civilian flights have been diverted to alternative airports, including a government VIP aircraft that Putin often flies which turned around and returned to Moscow.
The reason given was "unknown objects" in the sky over the city. The obvious worry was Ukrainian attack drones. Russian Air Force jets were scrambled to deal with it.
Edit - word is that airspace over St. Petersburg has reopened.
YazataMar 1, 2023 12:43 AM (This post was last modified: Mar 1, 2023 12:48 AM by Yazata.)
Rybar's latest Bakhmut map. (Rybar is a pro-Russian source, but I believe that their maps are reasonably accurate.)
Talk seems to be that Ukraine still has 1500-2500 soldiers in Bakhmut. (I'll go with 2,000.) They may or may not be executing a withdrawl under fire, trying to prevent the Russians from advancing while they prepare new defensive positions further west. There's talk that they are setting up fighting positions along a line from Chasiv Yar and north to Hryhorivka that are bristling with anti-tank rockets in case the Russians roll in armored vehicles.
From the graphics on the map, apparently the Ukrainians are extensively using their small grenade dropping drones in Bakhmut at the moment. Some of them look like high-end off-the-shelf models. If the Russians can't jam them, they probably need to bring in shotguns to shoot the low-flying things out of the air as if they are birds.
Wagner has Russian journalists embedded with them who have been producing videos of Wagner fighters in Bakmut neighborhoods that seemed pretty quiet while the videos were being shot. They made a point of filming themselves at Bakhmut landmarks like an agricultural tools store at the edge of town that many locals should recognize to show their claims to be in the city were real.
(Mar 1, 2023 12:43 AM)Yazata Wrote: Rybar's latest Bakhmut map. (Rybar is a pro-Russian source, but I believe that their maps are reasonably accurate.)
Talk seems to be that Ukraine still has 1500-2500 soldiers in Bakhmut. (I'll go with 2,000.) They may or may not be executing a withdrawl under fire, trying to prevent the Russians from advancing while they prepare new defensive positions further west. There's talk that they are setting up fighting positions along a line from Chasiv Yar and north to Hryhorivka that are bristling with anti-tank rockets in case the Russians roll in armored vehicles.
From the graphics on the map, apparently the Ukrainians are extensively using their small grenade dropping drones in Bakhmut at the moment. Some of them look like high-end off-the-shelf models. If the Russians can't jam them, they probably need to bring in shotguns to shoot the low-flying things out of the air as if they are birds.
Wagner has Russian journalists embedded with them who have been producing videos of Wagner fighters in Bakmut neighborhoods that seemed pretty quiet while the videos were being shot. They made a point of filming themselves at Bakhmut landmarks like an agricultural tools store at the edge of town that many locals should recognize to show their claims to be in the city were real.
i hope they pull out of Bakhmut safely
they will be retreating to high ground which should give them superior fire positions they just need counter battery fire to eliminate any artillery movement by the Orcs.
good to hear Ukraine is stepping up its drone attacks in bakhmut
they need loads more of those drones that carry RPG rounds fitted with ball-bearings
they will be good in countering the urban warfare environment penetrating walls/structures and vehicles
Wagner have been in the outskirts of the industrial part of bakhmut for some weeks already
im guessing only the dead conscripts have been there though so selfies come from the wagner contract Orcs so they must have only just moved in there.
Feb 23, 2023 07:19 AM
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