Russian Ukraine Invasion

Quote:In its daily briefing, UK intelligence said the casualties suffered by Donetsk's proxy militia amounted to 55% of its original force.

For months there have been reports of civilians being conscripted into the militia by force, with low morale and poor quality weapons, including rifles that went out of service decades ago.

Last month, Ukraine's SBU security service claimed militiamen compared conditions to slavery and were ready to desert.

Disaffected former proxy officials such as Yevgeniy Mikhailov said last month that untrained reservists from Donetsk had been sent to the front line because Russia had stopped sending conscripts. One resident told the BBC last month that there had been "tragedies everywhere".

This week the proxy administration said it was offering one-year contracts to foreign mercenaries to join its forces.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61891462

anecdotally it looks like Russia is going to be using its reservists and conscripts to bring to the front line for their new offensive
i imagine their reservists will not be as fit
slower to move and probably be less keen to move into fire zones.
given the Russian culture they will send in the conscripts into the fire zones as they have done before.
possibly more closely followed by reservists.
if Ukraine can strike deep into the reservists it will cripple the last remnants of their moral
Ukraine is going to out range and thus win the artillery war so Russia will be looking to move forward before the new artillery comes in.
if Ukraine can retreat at this critical point they can lure the Russians into Ukrainian artillery range as they over stretch their supply lines again.
staying highly mobile is key
because high mobility is what Russia doesn't have and what saves Ukrainian soldiers to fight another day.
the moral of the reservists and conscripts will be low already

(Jun 23, 2022 06:08 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: [...] Disaffected former proxy officials such as Yevgeniy Mikhailov said last month that untrained reservists from Donetsk had been sent to the front line because Russia had stopped sending conscripts. One resident told the BBC last month that there had been "tragedies everywhere." ...

Makes sense. Why get more of the home motherland lads killed when those "Russian" pseudo ex-pats in Ukraine are available, that were originally clamoring for intervention by Putin over the course of years, and providing an excuse for invasion. Be careful what you ask for...

(Jun 23, 2022 07:03 PM)C C Wrote:

(Jun 23, 2022 06:08 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: [...] Disaffected former proxy officials such as Yevgeniy Mikhailov said last month that untrained reservists from Donetsk had been sent to the front line because Russia had stopped sending conscripts. One resident told the BBC last month that there had been "tragedies everywhere." ...

Makes sense. Why get more of the home motherland lads killed when those "Russian" pseudo ex-pats in Ukraine are available, that were originally clamoring for intervention by Putin over the course of years, and providing an excuse for invasion. Be careful what you ask for...

it reads like they are conscripting civilians into slavery
i hope they surrender quickly with their weapons and machinery so Ukraine can take possession of it.
those rabbid russian patriot big talkers crumble under sustained stress

Viktor Adrusiv, an advisot to the Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister, says that Ukrainian soldiers in danger of being encircled south of Lysychansk have been successfully extracted.

I believe that a similar extraction of soldiers in danger of encirclement has taken place across the river in a place called Barlove south of Severodonetsk.

Last I heard there are still Ukrainian forces (I don't know how many) holding out in some factories in Severodonetsk, Mariupol-style. The Ukrainians still hold Lysychansk across the river, although the Russians are approaching its outskirts from the south. More and more observers (not just me) are expressing the opinion that it might be best for the Ukrainians to withdraw from the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area and fall back to a defensive line around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

Map from Militaryland.net

The British Defense Ministry say this

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Russian IL-76 military transport aircraft photographed over the Russian city of Ryazan with its left wing on fire, then eventually crashing.

It probably has nothing directly to do with the Ukraine war, though the Ryazan airbase does support the operations in Ukraine with transport and air refueling tankers. Russian news reports attribute the crash to an engine fire that the plane's fire suppression system couldn't put out.

All four crew on board were killed.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/...0096037888

Russian missile fails and 'boomerangs back at Russian troops'


https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/6IwqmezeSuQ



Ukrainian forces fire U.S. long-range rocket systems


https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/V0I0ETi_08M

Pro-Ukrainian missile refused to follow orders from the Orcs.

(Jun 24, 2022 08:11 PM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote: Russian missile fails and 'boomerangs back at Russian troops'

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/6IwqmezeSuQ

(Jun 24, 2022 10:08 PM)Yazata Wrote: Pro-Ukrainian missile refused to follow orders from the Orcs.

i hope the new reservists are getting a good dose of those new long range rockets

Reports coming in that Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of its troops on the far side of the Siverskiy Donets river in Severodonetsk. All of the bridges across the river have been destroyed, so that withdrawl is difficult.

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(Jun 25, 2022 01:21 AM)RainbowUnicorn Wrote:

(Jun 24, 2022 10:08 PM)Yazata Wrote: Pro-Ukrainian missile refused to follow orders from the Orcs.

i hope the new reservists are getting a good dose of those new long range rockets

Reportedly it was a surface-to-air missile, which implies that it was fired in response to some air threat. Today seems to have seen an increased pace of Ukrainian attacks on targets in Russian-held regions such as this small city of Alchevsk in the separatist "Luhansk People's Republic". Given the Russian control of the skies in these regions, it was likely a missile attack. There's speculation that the Ukrainians are receiving increased supplies of the longer-range American and European missiles that have been the subject of discussion in recent days. The Russians seem to be using their anti-aircraft missiles as anti-missile missiles, much as the US does.

Your second video seems to verify the arrival of the new American-made missiles. I just hope that enough were supplied to make a difference on the battlefield.

Current situation in the eastern Donbas battle as of Midnight Friday local time. Map from Ukraine War Map (@War_Mapper) on twitter. It shows that the Russians have occupied the small pocket that the Ukrainians evacuated. Currently, the Ukrainians are withdrawing their forces from Severodonetsk and the east side of the river.

Alchevsk, where the disobedient missile turned around and attacked the Russians that launched it is at the lower right.

Still no sign that Lysychansk is being evacuated, despite Russians approaching to its southern edges. Unclear what the Ukrainians plan to do there. Probably can't pull out before their forces are out from the east side of the river.

At some point I would expect the Ukrainians to pull back to west of Siversk around the black line (a big divided motorway?) east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. In that little tongue of land stretching east to Lysychansk, the Ukrainians are too exposed to artillery fire and possible encirclement.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/pKDLIzuMCsg

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/DuLp9zS5KAg