Is ESP real?

Small number of subjects (133) over a large number of trials (4,569) increases the likelihood of expectation accuracy.

(Dec 7, 2017 12:04 AM)Syne Wrote: Small number of subjects (133) over a large number of trials (4,569) increases the likelihood of expectation accuracy.

Source?

(Dec 7, 2017 04:46 AM)Magical Realist Wrote:

(Dec 7, 2017 12:04 AM)Syne Wrote: Small number of subjects (133) over a large number of trials (4,569) increases the likelihood of expectation accuracy.

Source?

The study mentioned in your video:
http://deanradin.com/evidence/Radin2004Presentiment.pdf

And 2 of the experiments only had 6 participants each.

What, did you simply believe it without bothering to look for yourself?

(Dec 7, 2017 05:49 AM)Syne Wrote:

(Dec 7, 2017 04:46 AM)Magical Realist Wrote:

(Dec 7, 2017 12:04 AM)Syne Wrote: Small number of subjects (133) over a large number of trials (4,569) increases the likelihood of expectation accuracy.

Source?

The study mentioned in your video:
http://deanradin.com/evidence/Radin2004Presentiment.pdf

And 2 of the experiments only had 6 participants each.  

What, did you simply believe it without bothering to look for yourself?  :rolleyes

I need a source to back up your claim that likelihood of expectation accuracy is increased because of this. I'm certainly not taking your word for it. While you're at it provide a sourced definition for expectation accuracy.

No, you're right. The gambler's fallacy bias would tend to rule that out.

But this includes a rebuttal of that paper: http://skepdic.com/precog.html

http://deanradin.com/evidence/evidence.htm

Dean Radin's remarkable synchronicity experience:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aan5hiQYlNs&t=22s

Mario Varvoglis, Ph.D.

"In the late fall of 1976 I had an experience that would change my life. While asleep, I heard a female voice call out my name, twice. It resembled the voice of my sister or my mother. I woke up in a panic, with the distinct impression that the ceiling was about to collapse on me. I jumped out of bed and ran outside my bedroom. Moments elapsed, as I moved from one room to another, not quite sure what to do with myself. I checked the door locks, thinking that maybe, in my sleep, I had heard the sound of someone trying to break in. After all, this was Bedford-Stuyvesant -- one of the roughest neighborhoods of Brooklyn, New York. Nothing...

There was dead silence everywhere, and everything seemed quite normal. Yet, never before had I had such a strong sense that something was wrong; my gut was telling me that I was in imminent danger. Eventually, though, I convinced myself that this must have been a very bizarre kind of nightmare. I returned to bed, and fell asleep again.

The following morning I was startled awake by a phone call. A Greek friend of mine was calling to tell me that a terrible earthquake had hit Thessaloniki, the northern capital of Greece, where my family was living at that time. I was practically sick with anxiety, realizing, suddenly, the significance of the episode I had just lived through. When I finally got through to my parents on the phone, I was relieved to discover that they were unharmed, though thoroughly shaken by this unexpected event. My mother, alone in the apartment when the violent shaking had begun, had run out into the street, like thousands of others, fearing that the building's collapse was imminent."---http://archived.parapsych.org/what_is_psi_varvoglis.htm

No Sixth Sense? ESP Debunked In New Psychology Study
The Case Against ESP
Neuroimaging fails to demonstrate ESP is real

When Big Evidence Isn’t: The Statistical Pitfalls of Dean Radin’s Supernormal

"Radin is aware of the file-drawer effect, in which only positive results tend to get reported and negative ones are left in the filing cabinet. This obviously can greatly bias any analysis of combined results and Radin cannot ignore this as blithely as he ignores other possible, non-paranormal explanations of the data. Even the most fervent parapsychologists recognize this problem. Meta-analysis incorporates a procedure for taking the file-drawer effect into account. Radin says it shows that more than 3,300 unpublished, unsuccessful reports would be needed for each published report in order to “nullify” the statistical significance of psi. In his review of Radin's book for the journal Nature, statistics professor I.J. Good disputes this calculation, calling it "a gross overestimate." He estimates that the number of unpublished, unsuccessful reports needed to account for the results by the file drawer effect should be reduced to fifteen or less. How could two meta-analyses result in such a wide discrepancy? Somebody is doing something wrong, and in this case it is clearly Radin. He has not performed the file-drawer analysis correctly." - https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Dean_Radin

"It is clear to this author that anomalous cognition is possible and has been
demonstrated. This conclusion is not based on belief, but rather on commonly
accepted scientific criteria. The phenomenon has been replicated in a number
of forms across laboratories and cultures. The various experiments in which it
has been observed have been different enough that if some subtle methodological
problems can explain the results, then there would have to be a different
explanation for each type of experiment, yet the impact would have to be similar
across experiments and laboratories. If fraud were responsible, similarly, it
would require an equivalent amount of fraud on the part of a large number of
experimenters or an even larger number of subjects."----http://deanradin.com/evidence/Utts1996.pdf

http://deanradin.com/evidence/Parker2003.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw_O9Qiw...e=youtu.be

It's not a "subtle" methodological problem. It's a fundamental problem of failing to take into account well-known statistical analysis liabilities.