Kincade Fire

[Yazata]

Hi SS. I'm surprised to hear you writing about wind. There hasn't been any wind to speak of down here by San Jose. Looking out my window now, I see some movement in the plants and trees, but just a light breeze. So I was about to declare my opinion that last nights apocalyptic predictions were just another false alarm.

From the latest Sonoma map (based on NASA satellite data), it looks like the fire didn't grow explosively overnight like was feared. According to Cal Fire's 7 AM update, it's 30,000 acres, up from 25,000. Most of that growth looks like it was to the north, south and east, into the remote sparsely populated hills. Containment is about 11%. That looks like a line east of Geyserville and south towards Healdsburg.

They are still adding new evacuation orders. The two blue warning zones east and west of Santa Rosa have been upgraded to orders. They have also issued evacuation orders for some of the outlying residential parts of the city of Santa Rosa itself.

https://sonomacounty.maps.arcgis.com/app...22aa794617 

From the location of the evacuation orders, they obviously feared that the winds would cause the fire to jump their lines and rush rapidly towards the sea. Didn't happen. But the fact that they are still adding new evacuation zones suggests that they still fear that it will.

https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/9986/10271...evac_o.pdf

Here's Cal Fire's latest map of the fire's actual extent. The black borders are fire lines that are already in, the red lines are where there are no fire lines.

https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/9985/pio_e...76_opt.pdf

[Secular Sanity]

It was really windy here. My oldest son lives in Humboldt. He left here late last night and said that it was pitch black all the way home. Down trees all along the way. It’s like that here, too. The wind was ripping through here last night and early this morning. Now that the sun is up, it’s starting to calm down but they’re expecting it to ramp back up again tonight.

Is your power out, Yazata?

[Yazata]

It was really windy here. My oldest son lives in Humboldt. He left here late last night and said that it was pitch black all the way home. Down trees all along the way. It’s like that here, too. The wind was ripping through here last night and early this morning. Now that the sun is up, it’s starting to calm down but they’re expecting it to ramp back up again tonight.

Is your power out, Yazata?

I live in a suburban neighborhood and power is on. They tell me it's out in the Santa Cruz mountains to my west, and in the hills to the east. More fire danger, I guess.

[Yazata]

Video of the 10 AM press conference. (With the camera pointed too low, so that all the speakers are headless and their maps can't be seen.)

https://twitter.com/CALFIRELNU/status/11...8331584512

Regarding wind, they say that it's a function of altitude. Things might be still on valley floors but 70 mph on mountain elevations.

They say that the fire has burned up to 101 and wind is blowing embers across to the west side. That has them scrambling to put out spot-fires. They are concerned since it's been many decades since the west side has burned and brush buildup is extensive. Given the low humidity, they seem really worried about things getting out of control there. It sounds like they are concentrating their forces along 101 west of the fire.

US 101 was closed earlier, reopened briefly, but has closed again. Reason is smoke blowing across the highway and the need to move equipment.

Total number of people evacuated in Sonoma county is now approximately 180,000. (Sonoma county's 2010 census population was 483,000. So more than 1/3.) No reports of fatalities, no reports of looting. Police and National Guard patrolling evacuated neighborhoods. Judging from traffic headed out, most people seem to be heeding the orders.

Wind conditions expected to continue until midday Monday. So maybe 24 hours more.

But...

The Sonoma Map tells a rather different story. (It's based on where a pair of NASA satellites are detecting fire infrared.) Most of the fire indications appear to be headed south and east, with a smaller bit now separated and heading north.

https://utility.arcgisonline.com/arcgis/...05be52.pdf

I'll add that wind has picked up a bit here. Plants and trees are moving a little more vigorously.

Edit about an hour later (2:20 PDT): I just went outside and the wind is getting pretty strong. Vegetation moving around pretty good. There's no haziness but there is a noticeable smoke smell in the air.

---

The Kincade fire isn't the only fire going around here.

There was a several hundred acre fire that triggered some rush evacuations in Crockett, but it's reportedly under control and some of the firefighters are leaving.

But not going far. Right across the Carquinez strait in Vallejo, a fire is threatening the California Maritime Academy (part of the California State University system) which has been rush evacuated. Interstate 80 has been closed. It happened without warning and photos show raging flames right next to the I-80 toll plaza of the Carquinez bridge, with lots of cars backed up. Video here:

https://abc7news.com/fire-causes-evacuat...o/5651188/

https://twitter.com/Cal_Maritime/status/...6309931009

KTVU-TV helicopter photo. The California Maritime Academy and its training ship, the Golden Bear, is in the foreground. Carquinez bridge in the upper right.

[Image: Chopper-Carquinas-Fire-0929-KTVUBCME01_2...?ve=1&tl=1]

[Yazata]

New Kincade fire evacuation warning issued for Calistoga and the northern end of Napa county. This is consistent with the fire heading southeast.

[Image: EH6Yjd9UEAAfDkR?format=jpg&name=large]

[Secular Sanity]

One just started near me. 50 acres so far.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-w...565967.php

[Yazata]

The Sonoma map shows how the fire has grown. It's much bigger than it was this morning, with most of the growth to the south. Cal Fire is fighting doggedly to prevent it from growing west.

https://sonomacounty.maps.arcgis.com/app...22aa794617

Cal Fire and their mutual-aid allies so far have saved Geyserville, Healdsburg and Windsor from burning. The fear now is that the fire will move down into Santa Rosa.

7 PM update summary:

[Image: EH7i8dJVAAEld8O?format=jpg&name=large]

[Image: EH7i8dLUUAAOelW?format=jpg&name=large]

[Yazata]

Video of the 9 AM press conference

https://twitter.com/CALFIRELNU/status/11...0275979264

Sonoma Sheriff

https://local.nixle.com/county/ca/sonoma/municipal/

Google map of Kincade fire Monday morning

http://google.org/crisismap/google.com/2...ncade-fire

Sonoma County's map (the best map in my opinion):

https://sonomacounty.maps.arcgis.com/app...22aa794617

Cal Fire's Monday morning update:

Part 1:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EH-69gUVAAEC...name=large

Part 2:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EH-69gUU0AAA...name=large

Part 3:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EH-69gVVAAEh...name=large

Bottom line is that the fire is still growing but it hasn't broken through the fire lines and rushed into inhabited neighborhoods. Apparently it did threaten to do that south of Windsor in a place called Shiloh, which has a number of expensive homes. The firefighters concentrated resources there and fought the fire back. It looks like some structures were lost, but most were saved. They are assessing it now. Now the winds are lessening. But there's some concern that wind off the ocean will start to blow the fire east and north, into southern Lake county. So they will be moving resources to that flank of the fire this afternoon. Then they expect a resumption of high winds blowing westwards on Tuesday night into Wednesday. After that, the wind is projected to quiet down.

US101 is open again but they warn motorists to use caution. There are lots of emergency vehicles and stuff. All the off-ramps in the effected area are closed.

It sounds like they are less worried about the fire moving west to the ocean and are planning to allow people to return to the western parts of the evacuation area in the near future, starting by the coast first.

Given the expected wind shift this afternoon, the Lake Sheriff has issued an evacuation warning (not an order at this point) for Cobb and other small villages in the hills.

https://local.nixle.com/alert/7613194/

[Yazata]

Most of the western part of the Sonoma evacuation area (the coast, the Russian River and Sevastopol) has been downgraded from mandatory evacuation to evacuation warning. This means that people can return home at their own risk. They are cautioned that power is turned off. It's still possible that the fire may spread into these areas, so people are told to listen for the European style high-low sirens that signal immediate evacuation.

http://nixle.us/BDZJJ

[Secular Sanity]

I’m not sure when the power is going to come back on. I haven’t been using my generator much because I don’t want to run out of diesel. I’m only using it to heat the house and shower. There’s only a few grocery stores and gas stations opened. Town is a mad house. Most of the mom and pop grocery stores are selling all their food at half price and BBQing all the meat out front. The taco trucks are making a fortune.

For the most part, everyone is cooperating and helping each other. My husband had to work the fires in Sonoma County but my little ex-Marine is home with me. An MMA fighter sure comes in handy when you’re trying to get gas. That’s the one thing that I didn’t anticipate, the amount of aggression at the gas pumps. The line was a mile long and a fist fight broke out. There’s a highway patrol posted here at the pumps now and he’s directing traffic.

The weather has improved. The wind has died down and the fire near me is at 350 acres and 20% contained. The Sonoma County fire is at approximately 75,000 acres and about 11,000 acres are contained.

I heard that they might turn the power back on today for a little bit but they said that it would only be for a few hours and then it would remain off until maybe Thursday. Who knows? It might just be a rumor.

The cell towers are really congested and throughout the day there’s hardly any service. You have to wake up early. I got up at 3:00 a.m. today and headed to the gas pumps to grab another 5 gallons of diesel. I have good coverage right now but during the day it’s sparse and takes a long time to load.

Thanks for posted the latest and most accurate information, Yazata. I appreciate it!