Quote:Cave expert: Thai rescue is one of the toughest I've seen
By Anmar Mirza
Updated 2250 GMT (0650 HKT) July 3, 2018
Quote:Anmar Mirza is the National Coordinator of the National Cave Rescue Commission.
Quote:Getting trapped people out of a flooded cave can be one of the easiest -- or one of the most challenging -- types of cave rescue. It is one that an international team is facing with the discovery of a group of 12 boys and their soccer coach -- missing for nine days -- alive, and basically well, in a cave in Thailand. They had gone into the cave after soccer practice and rising flood waters prevented them from leaving.
How to get them out?
I've been an active caver and cave rescuer for more than 30 years, having studied both extensively. I chair the board of regional coordinators (there are 10 regions in the United States) of the National Cave Rescue Commission, which has been developing and teaching cave rescue techniques since 1978.
This rescue in Thailand is one of the toughest I've seen.
But there are some essential guideposts in even a rescue of this colossal difficulty.
To begin, the basic tenet of cave flooding rescue is this: WAIT. Either the people are alive and safe somewhere inside, in which case taking risks only serves to place rescuers in danger, or they have already perished, in which case there is zero reason to place rescuers in danger.
A few things to understand about caves: Most are formed by water, and are dissolved out of (usually) limestone rock over millennia. There are a few exceptions, such as ice and lava tube caves, but even in these, water can run through them.
Not all caves continue to flood, but some still serve as natural "storm drains." In most caves in the United States, and many places around the world, a cave that has some water in it can flood further. This is usually in response to rain, and the water will drain fairly quickly. Only a few caving areas, such as in southeast Asia area, have continuous, monsoon-style rains that can cause a cave to remain flooded for several months.
Among organized cavers, caves that can easily flood, or stay flooded for long periods of time, are avoided if rain is a possibility. Often the general public is not allowed in such caves, but as with this cave, there are exceptions.
Usually when rain traps people in a cave, once the rain event subsides, a few hours to a few days later, the water lowers and rescuers can go in, or the trapped people come out on their own.
Meanwhile, on the surface, there are a few things that can be done to determine whether there is anyone trapped inside and how they might be faring.
Rescuers can monitor the water for depth and temperature, for debris, or for evidence of the trapped people. And the same with weather, which is predictable now to a high degree of accuracy. Efforts can be made to lower water levels through diversion or removing obstructions, or by pumping. Responders can search for other entrances, or can attempt to make new ones. In a few situations, cave divers may be used to make contact or ferry supplies. Mostly, though, it's a waiting game.
And this is very hard for rescuers who are used to doing, not waiting. There can be enormous pressure from family, from officials, and from the media to take action. This pressure can cause rescuers to take ill-considered risks. In most flooding situations, though, the water subsides soon and the question is answered: are they alive or are they not?
In the Thailand case, though, the waiting may well not be enough. The soccer team was found alive 1.2 miles into the Tham Luang Nang Non cave, and the water may not go downfor months. Nine days had passed before the first contact was made, something that is highly unusual in cave flooding situations. Also unusual is the cave temperature, in the mid-70s -- higher than most caves in the world, as caves tend to be the average temperature of the area they are in.
In much of the United States and Europe, cave temperatures are between the mid 30s and mid 60s. This means hypothermia: something that would likely have killed people who were unprepared and who were trapped for that length of time. From that standpoint, the trapped Thais are very fortunate.
What is not fortunate is nine days with no food. In a twist of irony, the soccer players and their coach have plenty of water, though if the water had made them sick before Navy Seal rescuers (including a doctor and a nurse) reached them, as they now have, it could have hastened their deaths.
With water, humans can survive for 3-4 weeks without food. After nine days, though, they are weak. Their gastrointestinal system begins to shut down. Their metabolic processes have changed. A full meal right now could kill them. Rescuers are reportedly reintroducing food gradually and carefully. It could take weeks to rebuild the boys' strength; right now they can barely stand, let alone do the rigorous activity likely required to get out.
As to that, there are three primary options.
The most dangerous is trying to teach them enough diving skills to dive them out. It's physically strenuous: in water, through blackout conditions, through tight squeezes for hundreds of meters. It's something that skilled cave divers spend hundreds of hours training for after they have already been open water divers for quite some time. A moment of panic or loss of the breathing regulator can be fatal for the novice diver, and may also put the cave diver escorting him in danger.
Drill an entrance? This requires heavy equipment that has to be brought to the site where a full-sized road has been made, and requires highly detailed mapping or specialized radiolocation from inside the cave. Even then, it's like hitting that needle in the haystack. Find a new entrance to the cave? They have been looking for 10 days now, and the odds go down with each passing day.
Wait for the water to go down? It's monsoon season. Even with pumping, it could be weeks -- even if the weather cooperates. Longer if it does not.
Finding this group at all certainly gives hope. And if where they are in the cave is safe from further flooding and the divers can supply them with food and care, they can live in the cave as long as necessary. If they cannot be safe from further flooding, then the only option may be the first and riskiest: diving them out.
Meanwhile, the world watches and judges. The rescuers are in a tough spot. Unless all people are safely out eventually, the rescuers will be blamed by the "you should haves" and by the self-doubt of "what if we'd only..."
Quote:Meanwhile, the world watches and judges. The rescuers are in a tough spot. Unless all people are safely out eventually, the rescuers will be blamed by the "you should haves" and by the self-doubt of "what if we'd only..."
That's for sure. Tough call for everyone, especially the parents.
Quote:Meanwhile, the world watches and judges. The rescuers are in a tough spot. Unless all people are safely out eventually, the rescuers will be blamed by the "you should haves" and by the self-doubt of "what if we'd only..."
That's for sure. Tough call for everyone, especially the parents.
As tough as it is for the Rescuers it must be a crazy mix of emotions for the parents.
The Parents cant make any calls. it is outside their skill set. panic & rash descisions simply wont solve it, which is why they are soo lucky to have the cavers & seals who train specificaly for such things.
It sounds like they have some of the best people on the job.
Amazing luck with those 2 British Cavers having experience(knowing the internal layout so they can advise the Seals etc) in the cave & the Seals.
Is it too soon/unfair to speculate on the level of madness that got them that far into the cave?
They must have followed coach through the crawly bits (now flooded) - some kind of test of stupidity or was there a reason?
(Jul 4, 2018 10:36 PM)confused2 Wrote: Is it too soon/unfair to speculate on the level of madness that got them that far into the cave?
They must have followed coach through the crawly bits (now flooded) - some kind of test of stupidity or was there a reason?
Different cultures have different ideas around names & titles and ages expectations and skills and power & authority.
what were you doing at age 11 ? (generic typical things)
what i wanted to add but forgot.
wet wipes & talcum powder
then they can all be given wet-wipe baths by the rescuers, checked for cuts, infections etc then talc-ed up then put into the 3 mil wet suits.
that should save quite a bit of vitamins & minerals & food, prevent sores on the feet bacterial infections fungus etc)
incessant wet open wounds being exposed to ecoli is not very good
additionally any bacterial build up.
cant do much about their lungs, water absorbed through the lungs(constant high precipitation) is more water when they are probably dehydrated.
can probably prep them with asthma meds a few hours before they are thinking of moving them to up their blood oxygen levels a little.
MR Wrote:what were you doing at age 11 ? (generic typical things)
.. maybe another thread (maybe).
In one incarnation I was a 'youth worker' (for the money). We took (poor/deprived) children to an isolated place while their parents got married/divorced or whatever and had complete power over them in this environment. One game we played was the trust game - you don't really need to know anything beyond the word 'trust'.
In the light of my experience of trust games I accept the possibility that the coach genuinely believed he was within his area of competence (so far the children don't seem to have been killed/eaten/molested) and fouled up in spectacular fashion.
(Jul 5, 2018 12:26 AM)confused2 Wrote: In the light of my experience of trust games I accept the possibility that the coach genuinely believed he was within his area of competence (so far the children don't seem to have been killed/eaten/molested) and fouled up in spectacular fashion.
I figure the coach is only guilty of being 25 years old, rather than deliberately or super-negligently leading them into a mess like that. But the rumblings out there might have different ideas. (Or not, depending on how relieved all parties are to have them rescued, and just celebrate that kind of ending and get over the rest).
~
Fame.and fortune await the kids..The coach on the other hand will, if fate.allows become.coach of Thailand National.Soccer team, a fate some.say may be worse.than death.
RE the coach, we dont know "what a coach is" in their society.
it might be someone who likes soccer and has spare time & a social expectation to keep the boys busy and away from the big city.
you would need to be a child prodigy to be a top quality coach at 25 years old and generaly you can see those people with olympic medals around their necks at age 16 to 18.
what is quite common in some asian countrys from what i have been told is
big signs for tourists saying something is dangerous to cater for travel tourism insurance company waiver info to keep the tourist dollars coming in.
soo locals see a sign and probably ignore it thinking it only applys to non locals who dont know the country.
some humans have a genetic driver that pushes them over the horizon.
they will always seek to go where no one has before and or push themselves into unknown territory.
ive seen it in various different people of various different socio-economic bracets and profesions.
25 years old also sits well inside the developmental psychology model of risk analysis.
the brain is still forming between known variables and judging the edge of a driving mind set to push past boundarys.
Jul 4, 2018 01:24 AM
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