Article DIY: if the EU coalition is willing, Ukraine has a chance of defying the odds

[stryder]

What people seem to be missing is that if Ukraine concedes any territory, it won't be because they wanted to. That means in the future there could be attacks in those regions because of people either being upset that Russia has taken it, or because Russia wants to start more shit in the direction of the Ukrainians.

In other words it will only be time before more warfare erupts. Trumps "Easy win" is fine for someone that won't be around long enough to see it fall apart.

It's not because we're "War Hawks" that we assume resolution will likely lead to war, it's because if you are going to have peace it has to last otherwise it's just a phreaking side show.

[Syne]

Preferring the war continue literally makes you a war hawk.

You're leaving out the rare minerals deal, that Zelenskyy has said he agrees with, that would give the US a vested interest in the security of Ukraine and direct investment in rebuilding the country. A much more solid security guarantee than the one the West gave Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons.

Again, if US interests occupy Ukraine, Putin would be the one threatening direct conflict with NATO. That is what deters future warfare in that region. Just like the US being involved with rebuilding Gaza.

Right now, US/EU involvement would be a serious provocation. But after a peace deal, Putin would own any provocation of NATO.

And isn't any, even short-lived, peace better than zero peace? War hawks say no.

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Putin actually wants the war of attrition, because Russia can obviously weather the personnel/equipment losses easier than tiny Ukraine... even with the infusion of western funds and equipment. Russia has all the leverage... unless the EU is willing to go into direct warfare with Russia (but they only want to be "peacekeepers" AFTER a US arbitrated peace deal). Since Russia has all the leverage, Putin is going to get something he wants to agree to a deal. Likely keeping Crimea and Donbas and no Ukraine membership in NATO. The only thing Putin wants that he will never get is demilitarization of Ukraine and installing Kremlin flunkies in the government. He should settle for peace and Ukraine elections resuming to unseat Zelenskyy.

[Magical Realist]

Meanwhile, Trump has an epiphany:

ROME (AP) — "President Donald Trump said Saturday that he doubts Russia’s Vladimir Putin wants to end his war in Ukraine, expressing new skepticism that a peace deal can be reached soon. Only a day earlier, Trump had said Ukraine and Russia were “ very close to a deal.”

“There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days,” Trump said in a social media post as he flew back to the United States after attending Pope Francis’ funeral at the Vatican, where he met briefly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Trump also hinted at further sanctions against Russia.

“It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through “Banking” or “Secondary Sanctions?” Too many people are dying!!!” Trump wrote."

Well duh!!

[Syne]

Putin actually wants the war of attrition,...

But you don't broadcast that if there's any chance for a peace deal.

Secondary sanctions will likely hit EU countries buying oil from Russia.