Asteroid Impact Probability Rising

[Yazata]

Estimates of the probability that asteroid 2024YR4 might strike the Earth on December 22, 2032 keep creeping upwards as they refine its orbital parameters. Today it's 3.1%, yesterday it was 2.6%.

It's a small asteroid and far from a planet-killer, but its impact is nevertheless estimated to be equivalent to a nuclear bomb.

Very preliminary estimates of where it might hit the Earth (assuming that it does which remains unlikely) fall on an arc extending from the Pacific west of Colombia, across northern South America, across the equitorial Atlantic and equitorial Africa, and across the Indian ocean and India to southeast Asia.

[Image: GkF8if6aQAAGHnl?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

[Magical Realist]

I was violently jolted out of sleep this morning with the sudden panic of the sun exploding. Sitting up looking out my rear sliding door, the sky looked incandescent white for a second and then I thought it was a nuclear explosion. I actually braced myself for oblivion for about 3 seconds. Then it dawned on me that it was just daylight and everything was fine. I don't ever have precog dreams, so I'm not going to worry about it. But if something happens don't say I didn't warn ye!

[Yazata]

Now, as they continue to refine 2024YR4's orbit, the impact probability is falling.

It peaked at 3.1%, fell to 1.5% yesterday and is just 0.28% today.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/

[stryder]

Now, as they continue to refine 2024YR4's orbit, the impact probability is falling.

It peaked at 3.1%, fell to 1.5% yesterday and is just 0.28% today.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/

So WHEN it hits, will it be Trump's version of Deepstate (made by Trump) responsible for it. (In other words are the figures true or being nerfed to stop panic?)