Jan 26, 2025 05:08 PM
(This post was last modified: Jan 27, 2025 07:45 AM by C C.)
PETER ZEIHAN
https://youtu.be/uxSVDZGfGIU
VIDEO EXCERPTS: We are going to continue on with the Trump 2.0 series today [...] China’s dying ... They now have more people over age 50 than under. And their workforce is in the early stages of collapse.
[...] Trump enacted a lot of selective tariffs on specific items as well as blanket tariffs. Biden didn’t peel any of those back. Biden went in and did tech tariffs to prevent technology transfer. And now that Trump is back, I find it very unlikely that he’s going to peel back anything...
[...] China is the workshop of the world ... their sudden disappearance [...will be traumatic...] Then what? Because we still need the stuff. And if the Chinese are incapable of building it, suddenly we are in a very, very new sort of economic cycle. So, you would fix this by massively expanding the industrial plant and the manufacturing base in the United States. But you can't do that quickly...
[...] So the smart play ... is to take whatever income comes in from tariffs ... and actually use them to underwrite the construction of an industrial plant, starting in industrial processing ... and then moving into, more and more sophisticated manufacturing.
That requires a degree of organizational build out that the United States doesn’t have. The United States hasn’t had an industrial policy like that since World War Two...
[...] Second, powering it. It’s not that the United States needs oil or natural gas. We are awash in that. ... The problem is electricity. It takes a lot of power to [...run all those new industrial facilities...]
So we need to expand the grid on a nationwide basis by at least half [...] they probably need to double the grid within five years, which is just a massive task. But I haven’t seen anyone from Team Trump even breathe the word electricity when discussing the energy situation.
[...] Third is labor. If we’re going to expand the industrial plant by half, that’s a whole lot of workers that the United States doesn’t have right now....
[...] Sorry. We are seeing an expanding labor demand in all of these sectors. ... There is no indication from Team Trump that workforce training for blue collar workers is something that’s particularly high on the list. And if anything, all this talk of mass deportations of, illegal workers from the United States is going to actually tighten the labor supply.
So basically, we’ve got two scenarios here, and it’s going to be up to Donald Trump and his team to decide which one to go.
Number one, you smash China while they’re down. [...] but you fail to build up the industrial capacity. You fail to build up the electrical capacity, and you’ve got the labor force at the same time that will generate a shortage in every possible consumer and industrial good at the same time, while also generating the fastest inflation that the United States has ever experienced. And Donald Trump will go down in history as the president who broke it all.
Or you build up the electrical grid, you find a way to square the circle with illegal migrants, you expand workforce training, and you repurpose the capital that was coming in from tariffs to actually build up the industrial plant faster. And Donald Trump goes down in history as both the president who broke China and set the stage for a new fundamental age of American economics.
I know which one I’d rather see...
Trump 2.0 - Reindustrialization of the US
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/uxSVDZGfGIU
https://youtu.be/uxSVDZGfGIU
VIDEO EXCERPTS: We are going to continue on with the Trump 2.0 series today [...] China’s dying ... They now have more people over age 50 than under. And their workforce is in the early stages of collapse.
[...] Trump enacted a lot of selective tariffs on specific items as well as blanket tariffs. Biden didn’t peel any of those back. Biden went in and did tech tariffs to prevent technology transfer. And now that Trump is back, I find it very unlikely that he’s going to peel back anything...
[...] China is the workshop of the world ... their sudden disappearance [...will be traumatic...] Then what? Because we still need the stuff. And if the Chinese are incapable of building it, suddenly we are in a very, very new sort of economic cycle. So, you would fix this by massively expanding the industrial plant and the manufacturing base in the United States. But you can't do that quickly...
[...] So the smart play ... is to take whatever income comes in from tariffs ... and actually use them to underwrite the construction of an industrial plant, starting in industrial processing ... and then moving into, more and more sophisticated manufacturing.
That requires a degree of organizational build out that the United States doesn’t have. The United States hasn’t had an industrial policy like that since World War Two...
[...] Second, powering it. It’s not that the United States needs oil or natural gas. We are awash in that. ... The problem is electricity. It takes a lot of power to [...run all those new industrial facilities...]
So we need to expand the grid on a nationwide basis by at least half [...] they probably need to double the grid within five years, which is just a massive task. But I haven’t seen anyone from Team Trump even breathe the word electricity when discussing the energy situation.
[...] Third is labor. If we’re going to expand the industrial plant by half, that’s a whole lot of workers that the United States doesn’t have right now....
[...] Sorry. We are seeing an expanding labor demand in all of these sectors. ... There is no indication from Team Trump that workforce training for blue collar workers is something that’s particularly high on the list. And if anything, all this talk of mass deportations of, illegal workers from the United States is going to actually tighten the labor supply.
So basically, we’ve got two scenarios here, and it’s going to be up to Donald Trump and his team to decide which one to go.
Number one, you smash China while they’re down. [...] but you fail to build up the industrial capacity. You fail to build up the electrical capacity, and you’ve got the labor force at the same time that will generate a shortage in every possible consumer and industrial good at the same time, while also generating the fastest inflation that the United States has ever experienced. And Donald Trump will go down in history as the president who broke it all.
Or you build up the electrical grid, you find a way to square the circle with illegal migrants, you expand workforce training, and you repurpose the capital that was coming in from tariffs to actually build up the industrial plant faster. And Donald Trump goes down in history as both the president who broke China and set the stage for a new fundamental age of American economics.
I know which one I’d rather see...
Trump 2.0 - Reindustrialization of the US